Weekend Predictions: Will the New Releases Shoot for the Stars?

September 20, 2019

Ad Astra

A better than expected opening by Hustlers and a stronger than expected hold by It: Chapter Two helped 2019 earn its second win in the year-over-year comparison last weekend. Meanwhile, we have three new releases hoping to extend the winning streak this weekend. Unfortanately, all three films have something holding them back. For example, Ad Astra was made by Fox before the merger with Disney and I’m not sure Disney is 100% behind this movie. Downton Abbey is based on a recent TV show and people are not always willing to go to the theater and spend money on something they could recently watch on TV for free. Finally, Rambo: Last Blood is earning weak reviews and that could hurt its box office chances. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, The House with a Clock in its Walls opened with $26.61 million, while A Simple Favor was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. This weekend, we could have no movie earn more than $20 million, but there are five films that should have no trouble getting to $10 million. This depth could help extend 2019’s winning streak to three weeks.

I didn’t think Downton Abbey would be a hit, as it is a recent TV show. On the one hand, the excitement level from the show is still high. On the other hand, sometimes people are just not willing to pay money for something they were getting for free. Its reviews are good enough to be optimistic, while its ticket presales having been better than anticipated. This should help it earn first place, but it will likely be a close race. Look for just over $20 million during its opening weekend.

It: Chapter Two should be next with just over $19 million. The film showed it had staying power last weekend and it should hold on even better this weekend, despite the increased competition.

Ad Astra is the biggest release of the week, at least in terms of production budget. It is also earning the best reviews, if you look at the average score more than the Tomatometer Score. It also has good star power and not a lot of direct competition. On the other hand, Fox has been in a slump this year, including movies released before the merger with Disney was completed. It hasn’t had a single $100 million hit during all of 2019 and I don’t think that’s going to change with this movie. It could earn first place over the weekend; in fact, I suspect it will earn first place on Friday. However, I think it will have to settle for third place with $19 million over the full weekend.

The Rambo franchise has been around for a long, long time. However, only the first film earned positive reviews, while the franchise peaked at the box office with the second film, which came out more than 30 years ago. This isn’t going to change with Rambo: Last Blood. Not only are its reviews are among the worst of the franchise, it is expected to open below $20 million. It should be close, I’m going with $18 million, but this is far from a blockbuster.

Hustlers should hold on better than most films, in part thanks to its reviews, but also in part thanks to its target audience. The film is aimed at more mature women, who are the demographic least likely to race out to see a movie opening days / opening weekend. Additionally, the studio, STX Entertainment, has shepherded films like this in the past and managed to help them earn long legs. Look for just under $18 million during its sophomore stint, putting it on pace for $100 million domestically.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Ad Astra, It: Chapter Two, Hustlers, Downton Abbey, Rambo: Last Blood, Rambo