Weekend Estimates: Midway Overcomes the Odds to Come out on Top
November 10, 2019
Midway wasn’t supposed to be a major hit, and it won’t be, but, sadly for all the other new films, it is opening in first place at the box office. In fact, its weekend estimate is $17.49 million, which is less than 10% above our prediction, but it was able to earn first place with relative ease. The film only managed mixed reviews, but it did earn an A-rating from CinemaScore. Additionally, there are holidays coming up, so it could have surprisingly long legs. The film also opened in China with $4.48 million. It’s hard to use this result as a guide for other markets, as there haven’t been enough American-centric war movies released in China to compare against.
Doctor Sleep is in second place on the weekend chart with an estimated $14.1 million, half of what most were expecting it would open with. It is hard to understand why this happened, as its reviews were the best of the weekend, while its B plus rating from CinemaScore is much better than average for a horror film. Granted, it is a long movie, at two and a half hours, but even that shouldn’t have had such a dramatic impact. Perhaps not enough moviegoers have seen The Shining to care about the sequel. The film isn’t doing significantly better internationally, earning $13.0 million on 11,728 screens in 68 markets this weekend for a two-week total of $20.0 million. I can’t see it breaking even any time soon.
It looks like Playing with Fire will earn third place as it is earning an estimated $12.8 million during the weekend. This is not only more than we predicted, it is more than projections based on Friday’s estimates. This strongly suggests better-than-expected legs for a family film, which is great news, as its reviews and its B plus rating from CinemaScore suggested the opposite. The film reportedly cost less than $30 million to make, so it should easily get past that, especially with Thanksgiving on the way. I doubt it will find an audience internationally, but it won’t need that to break even relatively soon.
Last Christmas is only earning fourth place according to estimates with $11.6 million. Its reviews and a B minus from CinemaScore are not going to help the film’s legs, but the holidays could. Also, it only cost $30 million to make, so it could break even, eventually. The film only opened in ten markets internationally, and will pull in an estimated $3.1 million. Just over half of that, $1.58 million, was earned on 272 screens during its first place debut in Australia. This is a better start than it managed here, given the relative size of the two markets.
Terminator: Dark Fate will round out the to five, as it is earning an estimated $10.80 million, down 63% from its opening weekend. It did bounce back more than expected, but this is still enough to end the franchise, at least for now.
There were a few limited releases to earn impressive numbers, led by Honey Boy with an average of $72,206 in four theaters. Combine this theater average and its reviews and you have a huge opportunity to expand. Better Days doesn’t really need to expand, as it is opening with more than $1 million in just 70 theaters for an average of $14,776. The Kingmaker isn’t that far behind with an estimated average of $10,800 in two theaters.
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, The Shining, Terminator: Dark Fate, Honey Boy, Midway, Doctor Sleep, Last Christmas, Playing with Fire, Shao Nian De Ni, The Kingmaker, Terminator