2020 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Leading Actor

February 5, 2020

Joker

Our annual Oscar Prediction contest is underway so now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We are continuing our shortened schedule with Best Lead Actor. We have a definite favorite this year, but I’m really hoping for an upset.

(Note: All previous awards listed are only for acting and not other categories. However, they are for supporting and lead acting. Previous awards and nominations for TV roles are not included, on the other hand.)

Best Lead Actor

Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory
Tomatometer Score: 97% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: Two Golden Globes
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: I was shocked by Antonio Banderas’s lack of major Awards Season success. I had just assumed he had won something during his career. In fact, he hasn’t even earned enough major nominations to think he’s due for a make-up award.


Leonardo DiCaprio for Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood
Tomatometer Score: 85% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: BAFTA, Golden Globes, and Two SAGs
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: Five Oscars, Four BAFTAs, Eleven Golden Globes, and Nine SAGs
Actor's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar, One BAFTA, Three Golden Globes, and One SAG
Notes: Had Leonardo DiCaprio not won an Oscar for The Revenant, then he would have won here.

Adam Driver for Marriage Story
Tomatometer Score: 95% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: BAFTA, Golden Globe, SAG, and Independent Spirit Awards
Movie's Previous Major Wins: Independent Spirit Awards
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscar, One BAFTA, One Golden Globe, Two SAGs, and One Independent Spirit Award
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: I really hope Adam Driver wins this award, but I don’t think he will. I also don’t think he’s a real long shot and if he does win, it very likely won’t be the biggest upset of the night, but it would still be an upset.

Joaquin Phoenix for Joker
Tomatometer Score: 68% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: BAFTA, Golden Globe, SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: BAFTA, Golden Globe, SAG
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: Three Oscars, Three BAFTAs, Five Golden Globes, and Four SAGs
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: I really don’t want Joaquin Phoenix to win this Oscar, because Joker is far from the best movie of the year and his performance in the movie isn’t the best of the year either. It’s not the best of his career. It’s not even the best performance for this particular character. If he wins, it will be a make-up Oscar and I hate those. All that accomplishes is creating more snubs that have to be fixed later on.

Jonathan Pryce for The Two Popes
Tomatometer Score: 89% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: BAFTA and Golden Globes
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: BAFTA
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: This is the smallest film on this list and you can’t vote for a movie you haven’t seen, so I doubt enough Oscar voters have seen it to help it win.

Conclusion: Joaquin Phoenix is the favorite to win here, while Adam Driver is the only one who has a real shot at the upset.


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Filed under: Awards Season, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Dolor y gloria, Joker, Marriage Story, The Two Popes, Jonathan Pryce, Antonio Banderas, Leonardo DiCaprio, Joaquin Phoenix, Adam Driver