Weekend Estimates: Onward Hits $40 million, Maybe

March 8, 2020

Onward

According to Disney, Onward will earn $40.0 million during its opening weekend. I strongly suspect they rounded up to get to that number, because opening below $40 million would have been a lot harder to spin in a positive way and they wanted to delay that admission one more day. Or maybe the final weekend number will be higher and I will have egg on my face. If it does match its estimates, it will still be on the lower end of expectations, but it will at least have a very healthy internal multiplier, meaning its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore are helping its box office numbers. The film’s demographics were evenly split with 52% of the audience being female and 42% being general audiences vs. 58% families. Internationally, the film really struggled with just $28.0 million in 47 markets. The film opened in most major markets and this includes first place debut in the U.K. ($4.4 million); France ($3.3 million); and Mexico ($3.0 million). On the other hand, it had to settle for second place in both Russia ($2.1 million) and Germany ($1.9 million). The film is going to need very long legs or a massive home market run to break even any time soon.

The Invisible Man is earning $15.15 million over the weekend, down just 46% from its opening weekend. That is an excellent hold, especially for a horror film. Its two-week total will be $52.69 million, assuming the estimates hold, which means it is on pace for nearly $100 million domestically. Speaking of $100 million, the film will nearly reach that milestone worldwide with an estimated international box office of $17.3 million in 68 markets for a total of $45.6 million internationally and $98.3 million worldwide. This includes a fourth place debut in Russia with $1.44 million on 1,200 screens. This is a disappointing debut, but it hardly matters in the big picture because of the film’s other successes. For example, the movie dipped just 24% during its second weekend in the U.K. earning $2.15 million on 569 screens for a running tally of $6.58 million.

The Way Back is earning third place with $8.5 million over the weekend. This is on the slightly higher side of expectations, but still weak for a film that reportedly cost $21 million to make. With its reviews, its B plus from CinemaScore, and its more mature target demographic, it should have decent legs. The film had a relatively even split with 53% of the audience being women, but it was older, 64% of the audience was north of 35. 43% were 50 years old or older. However, it will need help on the home market to break even any time soon, as it will go nowhere internationally. Basketball just isn’t a popular enough sport outside of the United States to carry a movie. For example, the film only managed $219,000 on 129 screens in its debut in Australia, which would be about $2.5 million here, given the relative size of the two markets. And that was the film’s biggest single market during its $640,000 debut on 448 screens in 14 markets.

According to estimates, Sonic the Hedgehog will be pushed into fourth place with $8.00 million, but this is still a great result and enough to lift its running tally to $140.82 million after four weeks of release. The film had no new international markets this weekend, but it still is earning $12.0 million 62 markets for a total of $154.8 million so far. It will get to $300 million worldwide shortly and it has yet to open in China and Japan, although the COVID-19 not quite pandemic has delayed its release in those markets.

The Call of the Wild will be right behind with $7.0 million over the weekend for a total of $57.5 million after three weeks of release. Internationally, the film is earning $4.8 million in 47 markets for totals of $42.1 million internationally and $99.6 million worldwide. The film has yet to open in in South Korea, so it isn’t done yet. However, all it can do now is hope to top its $125 million production budget worldwide and write off a major loss.

Emma. will miss the top five with an estimated $5.0 million, pushing its running tally to $6.9 million including two weeks of limited release. This is a fine result, but nothing special.

The Booksellers is opening with $17,000 in one theater, which is good news for that film. Unfortunately, at the moment, there is no other limited release even halfway to the $10,000 club.

- Weekend Box Office Chart
- Friday Box Office Chart
- Thursday Box Office Chart

- Friday Estimates: Onward is Off the Pace
- Thursday Night Previews: Onward Begins Behind Sonic’s Speedy Pace
- Weekend Predictions: Onward and Upward
- Theater Counts

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Onward, The Call of the Wild, Sonic The Hedgehog, The Invisible Man, Emma., The Way Back, The Booksellers