Weekend Wrap-Up: Onward on the Outs

March 10, 2020

Onward

It was a bad weekend at the box office. There’s really no way to spin this in a positive way. Onward opened just below the low end of predictions with just $39.12 million. The Way Back couldn’t make up the difference, as it only managed $8.17 million. The overall box office was up 2.0% from last weekend at just over $100 million. Sadly, this was 52% lower than the same weekend last year when Captain Marvel debuted. I don’t think anyone truly thought 2020 would win this weekend in the year-over-year competition. However, I don’t think many thought it would lose this badly. In fact, 2020 has slipped below 2019’s pace by 1.3% or $22 million at $1.68 billion to $1.70 billion. This is a disaster.

Onward had the worst opening for a wide release by Pixar since Toy Story came out in 1995. Its debut of $39.12 million was just below the $39.16 million earned by The Good Dinosaur in 2015. This film’s reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore are much better than its box office numbers, so I think COVID-19 is to blame, at least partially. The film is also a new IP, so that’s harder to market, while the modern day fantasy setting might have made the marketing even tougher. I think this film is going to lose money for Disney, unless it is a monster hit on Disney Plus. That said, the studio has led the box office charts four years in a row, so an off year isn’t going to hurt the company much.

The Invisible Man held on much better than most horror films manage, down just 46% earning $15.13 million over the weekend for a total of $52.68 million after two weeks of release. Had the film earned a total of $50 million domestically, it would have likely been enough to break even early in its home market run. As it is, it could break even just on its domestic theatrical numbers, although I assume Universal upped its advertising budget after its opening weekend, so that will make the math more complicated.

The Way Back opened in third place with $8.17 million, which is right in the middle of expectations. Its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore are fine, so its legs should be decent. That said, its theater average isn’t going to excite theater owners, so it could lose a chunk of its theater count during its third weekend of release.

Sonic the Hedgehog was next with $7.70 million over the weekend for a four-week total of $140.52 million. The film has already made enough to guarantee a profit, so it is just padded its profit margin at this point and ensuring multiple sequels / spin-offs get started.

The Call of the Wild rounded out the top five with $6.76 million over the weekend for a total of $57.25 million after three weeks of release. The film is going to lose money, but that’s what happens when you spend more than $100 million on a live-action family film.

Emma. just missed the top five during its semi-wide expansion earning $4.81 million for a total of $6.70 million including two weeks of limited release. This is a fine result, but that’s as enthusiastic as I can get.

The only film in the sophomore class not in the top five was My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising. The film plummeted 71% to $1.70 million over the weekend. However, it also lost nearly 45% of its theater count. Additionally, the film already has $12.90 million, which is more than most anime titles can dream of.

- Weekend Box Office Chart
- Friday Box Office Chart
- Thursday Box Office Chart

- Weekend Estimates: Onward Hits $40 million, Maybe
- Friday Estimates: Onward is Off the Pace
- Thursday Night Previews: Onward Begins Behind Sonic’s Speedy Pace
- Weekend Predictions: Onward and Upward
- Theater Counts

Filed under: Weekend Wrap-up, Onward, The Call of the Wild, Sonic The Hedgehog, The Invisible Man, Emma., The Way Back, Boku no Hīrō Akademia The Movie Hīrōzu: Raijingu