Weekend predictions: Sony and Lionsgate enter the arena

December 18, 2020

Fatale

What will be a long, slow, and painful process of recover at the box office starts this weekend with the wide release of films from two studios that have largely stayed on the sidelines over the past few months, both in terms of releasing films, and in terms of creating headlines. Monster Hunter from Sony Pictures is getting the widest debut, in 1,736 theaters, and is likely to win the weekend. Fatale is Lionsgate’s offering and opens in 1,107 locations. We might not yet be at the “acceptance” stage of grief in the theatrical market, but we do at least now have four major studios releasing films wide, with the two newcomers joining Universal and Warner Bros., who have taken more controversial routes that combine wide releases with early PVOD or streaming debuts for their films.



Monster Hunter re-teams Milla Jovovich and Paul W.S. Anderson of Resident Evil (and being-married-to-one-another) fame in another action movie based on a video game. The Resident Evil franchise generated over $1 billion worldwide, but the timing of this release suggests that Sony doesn’t think it has a similar blockbuster franchise on its hands. The model is still relatively optimistic about the chances for this film, relatively speaking, but with so many theaters closed and attendance restrictions in place it’ll be hard for it to top $3 million on its opening weekend. The studio will be hoping for a solid run through the Holidays and into the New Year, and some good business online in a few months’ time.



Fatale is the latest thriller to get a reasonably wide release during pandemic season. With the market so soft at the moment the model doesn’t have high hopes for its chances, partly because it’s opening in only 1,107 theaters. Anything over $1 million should be considered a victory, but the psychological thriller genre is a tough one to predict given the current circumstances.





The final film with a shot of getting in the top ten is The Muppet Christmas Carol, which Walt Disney is releasing in 725 theaters. The model thinks it should earn around $200,000, which would be just enough to top several other films likely to $150,000–$250,000 this weekend.

- Theater counts: despite two new wide releases, The Croods remains on top for now

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Muppet Christmas Carol, Monster Hunter, Fatale, Resident Evil, Milla Jovovich, Paul W.S. Anderson