Weekend predictions: Spiral leads a rush of new releases

May 14, 2021

Spiral

There are four new wide releases this weekend, a new high point as theaters reopen and the theatrical market continues its recovery. In spite of some fairly impressive star power on display, there’s not a huge amount of doubt about which film will top the chart this weekend. Spiral, the latest incarnation of the Saw franchise is getting the widest release, in 2,811 theaters, and by far the loudest pre-release buzz. The sheer quantity of new films makes this a challenging weekend to predict, but here’s what our model has to say…



The prospects for Spiral look fairly modest if we assume that our current measure of moviegoer enthusiasm is close to the mark. A Saw franchise film would usually make in the vicinity of $20 million, but if not much more than a third of moviegoers show up, which is what our model expects, it won’t get much past $6 million this weekend. This might be a case of the model being behind the curve, and industry expectations are that the film will crack $10 million. If it does, that’s reason for optimism that people are returning to theaters.



Those Who Wish Me Dead is a tough film to predict. On the one hand, it has impressive star power, with a cast led by Angelina Jolie and Nicholas Hoult. On the other hand, it’s been rolled out with very little marketing, and is launching simultaneously on HBO Max. The model says it should open with around $4.2 million, but I suspect it will actually come in somewhat lower.



Profile is the latest internet-influenced thriller from Timur Bekmambetov, the director behind such films as Searching, Unfriended, and Hardcore Henry. Under normal circumstances, this is a film with a shot at opening over $10 million. Right now, it’ll have quite a bit of competition, and isn’t the kind of escapist fun that I suspect moviegoers are more interested in. $2.9 million would be a good result, given the timing of its release.



Finally, Finding You is taking a shot at bringing romance enthusiasts back to theaters. They haven’t been showing up recently, and the model has a harsh assessment of the prospects for this film. Maybe the relaxing restrictions around the country will encourage some people to return to theaters. A weekend over $1 million for this film would be good news on that front.





Overall, it looks like this weekend should be up from last time. If Spiral does as well as expected, it could be up by quite a lot, but even with our model’s cautious number, we’re predicting the top six will make 14% more than last weekend.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Those Who Wish Me Dead, Spiral, Finding You, Profile, Saw, Angelina Jolie, Timur Bekmambetov, Nicholas Hoult