Weekend projections: The Nun II kicks off Fall season with $32.6-million debut

September 10, 2023

The Nun II

The Nun II continues the remarkable run of hits for The Conjuring franchise with a projected $32.6-million number one opening this weekend, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday-morning numbers. While that’s down from the $53.8 million earned by The Nun on opening weekend, it’s the best weekend for the franchise since that film came out, and looks likely to be the third-best weekend of the year so far for a horror movie, behind Insidious: The Red Door (which is just fractionally beating it at $33 million) and Scream VI ($44.4 million).

Here’s how the domestic numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…



The Nun II is fairly close to its weekend prediction, although it’s arguably showing slightly soft legs through the weekend as it heads for a little less than our Friday prediction. Given its release on a traditionally slow weekend, Warner Bros. should be very happy with the result. It’s a rare franchise that can deliver almost as big an opening weekend with its ninth film as it did with its first three. More Conjuring Universe films seem inevitable.

My Big Fat Greek Weeding 3 is headed for a disappointing $10-million debut, although that’s better than how things looked on Friday. Greek Wedding 2 opened with $17.9 million back in 2016, so this is a fairly substantial step down for the franchise. It is, however, better than Book Club: The Next Chapter managed earlier this year. Both Greek Wedding 3 and Book Club 2 made $550,000 from Thursday previews, but Book Club 2 limped to just $6.7 million over its opening weekend. While that comparison is encouraging for Greek Wedding, it won’t be enough to save the film. If the franchise continues, my bet is it will likely be in the form of Peacock original movies. (My Big Fat Greek Christmas anyone?)

The standout performer of the weekend is arguably Jawan, which will land in fourth place with a projected $6.2 million. That’s just a bit behind Pathaan’s opening at the beginning of the year, and the second-best weekend of all time for Yash Raj Films. Pathaan was their best result, and also happen to star Shah Rukh Khan, a veteran Bollywood actor whose star is back on the rise.

Aside from another decent hold by Barbie, returning films are underperforming this weekend. That’s partly due to the comparison against the Labor Day Holiday weekend last weekend, but mostly because the market as a whole is weakening as we hit the slowest time of the year for movies in theaters. The good news is that the $90-million-or-so that will be generated by all movies playing in theaters this weekend compares to a dismal $42-million weekend this time last year. Barbarian topped the box office chart that weekend with just $10.5 million on debut. We’ve come a long way since then.

- Studio weekend projections
- Barbie’s day-by-day performance comparison with Avatar: The Way of Water and The Super Mario Bros. Movie
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash,

Filed under: The Conjuring, Shah Rukh Khan