Weekend predictions: One Love likely to stay number one on a busy weekend

February 23, 2024

Bob Marley: One Love

Bob Marley: One Love looks like a clear favorite to top the box office chart going into the weekend, although it has quite a bit of competition, with three new wide releases vying for spots at least in the top five. Demon Slayer: To the Hashira Training looks like its biggest threat from the numbers we’ve seen so far.

Demon Slayer is a formidable anime franchise, with Mugen Train breaking through the $20-million barrier on its opening weekend back in April, 2021. Its last appearance in North America, To the Swordsmith Village made a more modest $10.1-million debut:

After our model has made its various adjustments, it came up with a predicted weekend of about $13 million. Thursday’s preview numbers put a small dent in that, but are consistent with something over $10 million:

An $11-million debut would be another impressive performance for the series.

Coming into the weekend, the model thought Ordinary Angels was a good bet for third place on the chart…

… its preview numbers are fairly modest, however…

It’s too soon to panic about the outcome for this film, which was never going to draw a huge crowd on Thursday evening. Dramas tend to have long legs going into the weekend, and topping $5 million is still a definite possibility. Stillwater, for example, turned $280,000 in previews into a $5.2 million opening. $10 million, however, looks out of reach, and something in the $3 million to $5 million range is the safest bet.

That leaves an opening for this weekend’s third new wide release, the Coen brother movie Drive-Away Dolls.

It’s hard to say how much harm having only half of the Coen Brothers on the marquee will do to this film, and there’s a good chance it’ll come in much closer to Ordinary Angels. A preview figure wasn’t announced, which isn’t a good sign, but this is another film that will rely on the kind of audience that doesn’t come out so much on a Thursday evening, and is also quite happy to watch a film on its third, fourth, or tenth weekend if they hears it’s good. To stay in theaters that long, Dolls probably needs to open with $5 million or more.

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

One Love is at some risk of losing top spot this weekend, with the model expecting a fairly steep drop from last weekend’s President’s Day holiday. Overall, though, it would be a real surprise to see it dethroned, and a weekend over $15 million and an easy win is more likely.

Overall though, we’re looking at a slightly disappointing down weekend right now as theaters prepare for the arrival of Dune: Part Two in the coming week.

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Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Dune: Part Two, Bob Marley: One Love, Drive-Away Dolls, Ordinary Angels, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba—To the Hashira Training (鬼滅の刃 柱稽古編), Ethan Coen