Weekend predictions: Dune could pull off surprise weekend win

March 15, 2024

Dune: Part Two

Our model thinks Dune: Part Two has a good shot at beating Kung Fu Panda 4 at the box office this weekend. Arthur the King is likely to have the best weekend among the new releases, although The American Society of Magical Negroes and One Life will be looking to draw in some business with niche audiences.

Here’s what our model expected for Arthur the King going into the weekend:

Its preview number, while just $825,000, isn’t dangerously low for a film that is aiming to enjoy broad appeal.

The high predicted multiplier and wide divergence between the baseline prediction and the previews prediction means this is a hard movie to predict for the weekend. $10 million should be seen as a win, although it could go higher.

Meanwhile, The American Society of Magical Negroes is expected to come in around $2 million this weekend.

We don’t have preview numbers for this one, and the prediction is brought down by the model’s current estimation of a very weak theatrical market. I’ve a hunch this might do a little more than $2 million, but anything over $3 million would be a surprise.

Some mild counter-programming to Focus Features’ satirical comedy comes from One Life.

With both the new releases aimed at older audiences arriving in about 1,000 theaters, there’s not much chance of them landing high in the top ten. They might also eat into each other’s market a little.

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

The real battle this weekend is between Kung Fu Panda and Dune. It’s worth noting that Dune was top of the daily chart on Thursday and Friday, so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise for it to win the weekend. However, Kung Fu Panda is much more of a family film, and should do relatively better at the weekend.

My hunch is that Dune will do a little worse than the model predicts, and Kung Fu Panda will do a little better. Which one comes out at the top of the chart is a toss-up right now.

One final note: Love Lies Bleeding is reportedly expanding wide, but we don’t have an official theater count from A24. If it does go truly wide, it could hit the top 10 after earning a very solid $276,618 from five theaters over its first week.

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Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Arthur the King, One Life, Dune: Part Two, Love Lies Bleeding, Kung Fu Panda 4, The American Society of Magical Negroes