Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Home Market Releases for March 3rd, 2020

March 5th, 2020

It’s a terrible week on the home market with almost no prime new releases. In fact, if there weren’t a couple of late screeners to talk about and several secondary VOD titles, the main list would be very short. The week is so weak that Jojo Rabbit is really the only choice for Pick of the Week, even though it came out about a month ago. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Post-holiday Blues Gets to Frozen II

December 10th, 2019

As expected, the box office collapsed this week, as it always does in a post-holiday weekend. Despite the best efforts of Frozen II and Knives Out, the overall weekend box office fell 50% to $89 million. This is 5.4% higher than the same weekend last year and that’s the more important figure. Year-to-date, 2019 closed ground with 2018, albeit by a tiny margin and this year is still behind last year by 5.9% or $630 million at $10.16 billion to $10.80 billion. It has been a long time since we’ve seen the box office decline by that high of a percentage in one year; however, 2019 is still on pace to be the second highest grossing year of all time and it still has higher ticket sales than 2017 had at this point, so I think we shouldn’t panic over this. More...

Weekend Estimates: Frozen Falls, Still Set to Top Predecessor

December 8th, 2019

Frozen II fell both faster than expected, and faster than projections based on Friday’s estimates. However, the film is still managing an estimated $34.67 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $337.59 million. This is enough to push it ahead of Joker and into seventh place on the yearly chart. If this holds up, then it will have an excellent shot at topping the first Frozen’s domestic total, even without the Christmas break coming up. Internationally, the film pulled in $90.2 million in 48 markets for totals of $582.1 million internationally and $919.7 million worldwide. It had no major market openings this weekend, but it is earning an estimated $800,000 in South Africa, which would make it the second biggest opening for an animated film there, behind only Minions. The film has become the biggest animated film in South Korea with $75.5 million. It as also topped its predecessor in Russia ($23.0 million) and Mexico ($21.1 million) and a lot of smaller markets. More...

Friday Estimates: Frozen Begins to Thaw, Playmobil Nowhere to be Found

December 7th, 2019

As expected, Frozen II earned first place on the Friday box office chart. However, the film fell further than anticipated, earning $7.84 million—off 77% from last Friday. That was a holiday, so obviously it will bounce back over the rest of the weekend, but projections have the film earning about $36 million compared to our $38 million prediction. This is close enough that I’m satisfied with the result and it is more than enough to keep it in wide release until after the new year. More...

Weekend Predictions: December Will Start on a Chilly Note

December 5th, 2019

The weekend after Thanksgiving is one of the worst weeks of the year to release a film wide. In fact, many years there are no wide releases. This year, Playmobil gets thrown to the wolves, or to the mercy of Frozen II, to be more specific. I can’t imagine it will survive the competition. In fact, most think the wide expansion of Dark Waters will beat it at the box office and that film isn’t expected to land in the top five. This weekend last year had no wide releases and Frozen II should earn more than last year’s top two films, Ralph Breaks the Internet and The Grinch, earned combined. December should get off to a fast start on the year-over-year competition and hopefully that’s a good omen going forward. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Thanksgiving Shows 2019 still has some Spark Left

December 2nd, 2019

2019 hasn’t been a great year and has consistently been behind 2018. However, 2018 was the biggest ever year at the box office and 2019 has been in a battle for second place for much of the year. Thanksgiving beat expectations and the overall performances over the Thanksgiving weekend really helped 2019’s chances to secure second place. Frozen II broke records earning first place for its three-day and five-day Thanksgiving weekends. In fact, its three-day weekend haul of $85.98 million would have landed in third place on the all-time five-day chart. Additionally, both new releases, Knives Out and Queen and Slim, topped expectations leading to a robust box office. Granted, the overall box office was a little lower, down 12%, from last weekend at $180 million. This is common for Thanksgiving, as the Wednesday and Thursday holidays are so popular with moviegoers that they reduce the box office potential of the Friday through Sunday weekend. This is 56% higher than the same weekend last year, but this is due to a misalignment in the holidays. This Thanksgiving was 16.5% lower than last year’s Thanksgiving, but the misalignment of the holidays does have an effect there as well, so it isn’t a perfect comparison either. Next weekend will be a lot better when it comes to the year-over-year comparison. Year-to-date, 2019 is still behind 2018 by a large margin, but 2019 was able to close to the gap a bit to 6.0% or $640 million at $10.03 billion to $10.67 billion. Getting that gap lower is the goal for December, as it is virtually impossible that 2019 will catch up completely. I would be really impressed if they can cut that gap in half. More...

Weekend Estimates: Thanksgiving Stuffs itself on New Releases and Leftovers

December 1st, 2019

Frozen II’s weekend haul wasn’t quite up to the level it was during the week, but it was still impressive. In fact, it is matching our prediction nearly perfectly with $85.25 million, giving it $123.75 million over five days and a running tally of $287.57 million. It will break the three-day and the five-day Thanksgiving records, topping the second place film, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, by substantial margins. Frozen II will have no trouble getting to $300 million shortly, while topping $400 million is practically assured at this point. Meanwhile, it is adding $163.8 million in 45 markets internationally for totals of $451.0 million internationally and $738.6 million worldwide. The film had a trio of first-place openings in major markets this past weekend, including Russia with $13.7 million, which Disney is reporting as the best opening for an animated film in that market. In Italy, it earned $7.7 million over the weekend and $8.6 million including previews, which is the best for a Disney animated film. It wasn’t as impressive in Australia with an opening of $6.6 million, but this was still 59% more than the first Frozen opened with in that market. At this point, the film has fully paid for its production budget, and while it likely cost between $150 million and $200 million to advertise, it should last in theaters long enough to cover that as well. That’s assuming the film had no more markets to open in, which isn’t the case. It has yet to open in Brazil and some smaller markets, so it should get a boost at the box office over the next month and a bit. More...

Friday Estimates: Frozen II in the Black on Black Friday

November 30th, 2019

Frozen II remains on pace to top expectations and set a couple of Thanksgiving weekend records. It should earn both the three-day and the five-day records. In fact, with a Friday haul of $34.03 million, it is on pace for about $85 million from Friday through Sunday, meaning its three-day Thanksgiving weekend won’t be too far behind the first Frozen’s five-day Thanksgiving weekend haul of $93.59 million. Even with weaker legs thanks to weaker reviews, a lower A minus CinemaScore, and being a sequel, it is still on pace to top its predecessor and hit $400 million domestically with ease. More...

Daily Box Tracking: Catching Fire Melts Frozen, but Frozen Still on Record Pace

November 29th, 2019

Frozen II slipped faster than anticipated on Thursday, pulling in $14.72 million. Family films tend to fall faster on Thanksgiving Thursday, because families spend time with each other rather than going to the theaters, but I was hoping it wouldn’t fall quite this fast. Frozen II fell fast enough that the more adult oriented The Hunger Games: Catching Fire remains the Biggest Thursday in November, albeit by a very close margin. Furthermore, the film is still well ahead of our prediction, helping it crack $200 million domestically on Thursday. Projections have the film destroying the 5-Day Thanksgiving record, with $130 million, maybe more, so there’s plenty to celebrate. As for the film’s long term chances, it doesn’t have any direct competition until Christmas Day, so it will have no trouble remaining in wide release until the New Year. More...

Daily Box Tracking: Frozen Fills Up on Wednesday, Knives Out Opens on the Up and Up

November 28th, 2019

After breaking the record for Biggest Monday of November and the Biggest Tuesday of November, Frozen II had to settle for second place for the Biggest Wednesday of November, as it earned $23.78 million on Wednesday. This puts it just shy of The Matrix Revolutions’s record of $24.31 million; however, that was The Matrix Revolutions’ opening day, so I think it is safe to assume Frozen II will be back on top on Thursday. Furthermore, this puts the film on pace to top our prediction by a substantial margin. In fact, it looks like it will top its three-day opening weekend over the five-day Thanksgiving weekend. It’s chances of matching its predecessor have increased dramatically. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Audiences be Thankful this Thanksgiving?

November 27th, 2019

There are two wide releases this Thanksgiving, both of which are earning stellar reviews. Unfortunately, only one of those two films, Knives Out, is expected to make any real impact at the box office. Queen and Slim is just hoping to reach the top five. That said, both films will be crushed by Frozen II, which broke records last weekend and it is expected to have a strong hold during the holidays. This weekend last year was the weekend after Thanksgiving and the biggest new release was The Possession of Hannah Grace. Queen and Slim should top that at the box office. In fact, Knives Out might top Ralph Breaks the Internet’s sophomore stint, so even without Frozen II, the weekend would be looking good. 2019 might do well enough on the year-over-year competition that it will save November and give the year a real shot at ending on a strong note. More...

2019 Preview: November

November 1st, 2019

Joker single-handedly saved October. Had the film merely matched expectations, then the month would had suffered a major loss in the year-over-year competition. We sill lost a little ground, but not so much that we will look to October as the reason 2019 missed last year’s pace. As for November, we have some potential monster hits with Frozen II leading the way. If that film doesn’t earn at least $1 billion worldwide, I will be shocked. Additionally, every week has at least one movie coming out that has a somewhat realistic shot at $100 million, although not all of them will get there. Unfortunately, last November was much better, with five films that topped $100 million, including three that earned more than $200 million. I think 2019 will be better at the top, but it just won’t have the depth to keep pace with last year. More...

Queen & Slim Trailer

August 23rd, 2019

Drama starring Daniel Kaluuya, and Jodie Turner-Smith opens November 27 ... Full Movie Details.

When a black man and black woman on a first date are pulled over by a police officer at a traffic stop, their life goes awry. Forced to kill him in self-defense, rather than turn themselves in, they must go on the run. More...