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Weekend Predictions: Will the New Releases be Magnificent?

September 22nd, 2016

The Magnificent Seven

It is a perfect weekend at the box office, as there are only two wide releases and there are almost no crossover audiences between them. The Magnificent Seven is a remake of a remake and its solid, but not spectacular. Storks is a digitally animated kids movie that is earning mixed reviews, but that’s fine for a kids movie. Those two movies will likely earn more than the rest of the box office combined pulls in. This is both good news and bad news, as it is a combination of their strength and the rest of the box office’s weakness that is the cause. This weekend last year, Hotel Transylvania 2 debuted with $48 million, which is the record for a September weekend. I think The Magnificent Seven will top that, while Storks will double the second place film, The Intern. Unfortunately, last year there were three other films that earned more than $10 million, while this year there will be only one. 2016 is better on top, but 2015 had better depth. Perhaps 2016 will still come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison, but I don't think it will quite make it.

The Magnificent Seven is a remake of a remake, which certainly makes it interesting to talk about. However, it also means there are two classic films to compare it to and that’s hurting its reviews. That said, at the moment, its reviews are 60% positive, which is great for this time of year. The buzz is also there and there’s a good chance it will break the record for biggest September weekend, set this weekend last year by Hotel Transylvania 2. I think it will be very, very close earning $49 million over the weekend.

Storks will also be compared to Hotel Transylvania 2, as they are both digitally animated movies opening during the same time of year. Unfortunately for Storks, there are almost no points of comparison where it comes out on top of Hotel Transylvania 2. The two films are earning nearly identical reviews, but Storks is currently one point behind there. Also, Storks is an original IP, while Hotel Transylvania 2 was a sequel. Worse still for Storks, it is not even being released by a studio that is known for digitally animated films. There’s really no history here to guide box office predictions. Worse case scenario has the film earning $25 million or less. Best case scenario has it earning nearly $40 million. I’m going with $32 million over the weekend and just over $100 million in total.

Sully will finally get knocked out of top spot this weekend. It will still do well earning $12 million over the weekend for over $90 million in total. This puts it on pace to reach $100 million before the end of the month. The year needed more surprise $100 million hits, so I’m happy with this result and I’m sure the studio is also happy.

Bridget Jones’s Baby will land in fourth place, mostly by default. The film is earning great reviews and its target audience tends to support a film longer than most others. The film should add between $5 million and $6 million over the weekend pushing its running tally to $17 million, more or less. Fortunately, the film’s international numbers are a lot stronger than this.

Blair Witch should drop just over 60% to just under $4 million over the weekend. Likewise, Snowden should drop just over 50% to just under $4 million over the weekend. I think Snowden has a slight advantage for fifth place, but it should be close.

- The Magnificent Seven Comparisons
- Storks Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Bridget Jones’s Baby, Snowden, The Magnificent Seven, Storks, Sully, Blair Witch