2018 Preview: August
August 1, 2018
Overall, July was a a little weaker than expected. Ant-Man and the Wasp appears to be on pace for $200 million, while it is too soon to tell if Mission: Impossible—Fallout will also get there. That said, 2018 is still ahead of 2017 by $550 million, so the month of July was a success in that regard. As for August, there’s only one movie that is expected to earn $100 million, Christopher Robin, and maybe a few others that could hit $50 million. It’s a rather sad slate of movies. Fortunately, last August was even worse, so 2018 should at least maintain its lead. Maybe we can get lucky and come away with a $600 million lead by the end of the month.
Every year at this time, we play a game I like to call, “Guess when summer will end.” The closer we get to Labor Day, the harder it is for a film to find box office success, because the families and college students are trying to take advantage of the last few days of summer vacation. Sometimes summer lasts a few weekends into August. Other times, it ends before August begins. This year, it’s really clear summer will last one weekend more, as Christopher Robin is the only film coming out this month that is expected to be a box office hit. The Spy Who Dumped Me could become a midlevel hit. Meanwhile, The Darkest Minds is just hoping to open in the top five. Also opening this weekend is Death of a Nation, but it is only opening in 1,000 theaters. This weekend last year, The Dark Tower was the biggest hit, but it still opened with less than $20 million. On the other hand, there were 5 films that earned $10 million or more. 2018 will beat it at the top and come away with the win, but last year’s depth will mean it won’t be a blowout in the year-over-year comparison.
A live-action Winnie the Pooh movie. Sort of. Ewan McGregor stars as the titular Christopher Robin, who grew up and has a wife and kid. He wants to spend time with them, but his boss is making him work the weekend. Not only that, but his assignment is figuring out how to layoff a sizable portion of the company. The stress of this causes him to crack and see Winnie the Pooh for the first time since childhood. Except this isn’t a sign of a mental breakdown, because other people can see his toys walking and talking as well.
This movie is going to destroy me. I can’t watch The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh without crying a little at the end and I can already tell this one will be the same. There are still no early reviews as I type this, but the film has great buzz and it is widely expected to be August’s only $100 million hit.
Last Minute Update: There are still no reviews, but that could change by the time you read this.
This is Jennifer Yuh Nelson’s first live-action movie. She previously directed the second and third Kung Fu Panda movies. Amandla Stenberg stars in this dystopian story. In it, an epidemic kills the vast majority of children and those that don’t die develop psychic powers, who are then put into government camps. Amandla Stenberg is the most powerful of these psychic kids and escapes her camp and goes on the run. While the film is based on an original script, it has a very Young Adult Adaptation feel to it and I think that’s going to hurt its box office chances. Also, it is the smallest of the three films opening this week.
Mila Kunis stars in this movie as a woman who learns her ex-boyfriend is back in town. She also learns he was an undercover CIA spy and there’s a bunch of hitmen after him. Now she and her friend, Kate McKinnon, are wrapped up in whatever mess he’s created.
This is an R-rated action comedy that reminds me of Spy!. However, it doesn’t have nearly as much box office potential. If The Spy Who Dumped Me earns just half as much as Spy! did, then I think the studio would be happy. I’m not 100% sure if it will get there, but I think it will be a solid midlevel hit and should break even relatively early in its home market run.
Last minute update: The early reviews have been all over the place, but they are currently 60% positive. If they remain in the overall positive range, then its box office chances will improve.
Two of the three wide releases coming out this week deal with animals. Dog Days is a romantic family film about people who connect with other people through their dogs. The Meg is about a giant, prehistoric shark that eats people. Slender Man is a low-budget horror movie that had a weak first trailer and that hurt its buzz. The lack of direct competition might be its biggest asset. Also opening this weekend is BlacKkKlansman. It’s opening in limited release, but it is earning some early Awards Season buzz, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it expands enough to earn some measure of mainstream success. Meanwhile, Blindspotting is expanding wide this week, but that appears to mean just over 1,000 theaters and not truly wide. This weekend last year, Annabelle: Creation was the biggest hit of the week opening with $35 million. There’s a chance none of the films opening this week will earn that in total. I really don’t think that is the case, but there is a chance.
A family friendly romantic film about a group of people, each of whom connects with someone else thanks to their dogs. Normally a release like this would be considered counter-programming, but it could actually be the biggest hit of the weekend. It will benefit from the large ensemble cast, which means for most people already in the target audience, there will be at least one or two cast members that will make them extra interested in the movie. Additionally, the other two movies opening wide this week share a significant portion of their target audience and that’s going to hurt them at the box office. On the other hand, it is being released by the smallest studio and that could result in it missing the top five during its opening weekend and disappearing. Unfortunately, the low end of expectations seems most likely.
A horror / action film about a giant Megalodon attacking people. It’s a Chinese co-production and it is clearly going for that market more than the domestic market. It had better be a huge hit in China, because there’s little hope it will put a dent in its $150 million production budget here. Obviously the studio would like the film to be a hit here and it does have the loudest buzz of the three wide releases debuting this weekend. Films like The Shallows and 47 Meters Down show there is an audience for killer shark movies, but that audience is in the $40 million to $60 million range, not the $100 million plus range that this film would need to earn to be a hit here.
This is a horror movie based on an Internet meme that peaked many years ago. A lot of people think this film will be the biggest hit of the week, and by a large margin. I just don’t see it. Granted, Annabelle: Creation, which opened this weekend last year, was the biggest hit of the month and cleared $100 million domestically. However, that film was part of a franchise and had a huge built-in audience, while this film was saddled with a weak first trailer that really hurt its buzz. Furthermore, it shares a significant portion of its audience with The Meg. I don’t think it’s going to bomb, but I don’t think it will be the biggest hit of the weekend either.
There could be a close race this week as both Crazy Rich Asians and Mile 22 are expected to compete for first place. Mile 22 is the more traditional box office hit, but Crazy Rich Asians has been getting a lot of buzz. Meanwhile, Alpha is the third wide release of the week, but it will likely slip between the cracks. This weekend last year, The Hitman’s Bodyguard opened with just over $21 million. That’s not a great start, but it is certainly better than anything this weekend will open with. Maybe 2018 will have better depth and eke out a win. It should be close either way.
Kodi Smit-McPhee stars as a Caveman separated from his tribe and who is trying to get back. He encounters a wolf and the they travel together and bond. The film tries to explain how dogs became man’s best friend. It is an interested plot, but the film is the smallest of the three wide releases coming out this weekend and it is not expected to find an audience.
Constance Wu stars as Rachel, a woman who has been dating Nick for about a year when he asks her to accompany him back to Singapore for his best friend’s wedding. On the way, she learns he’s crazy rich. When they get there, she also learns Nick’s mother hates her, because she doesn’t think she’s good enough for her son.
There are not a lot of films made by Hollywood studios featuring a predominately Asian cast and that has caused the film to generate a lot of buzz in certain circles. It also makes my job a lot harder, because there are so few films to compare it to. I’ve heard some very positive buzz about the film’s quality and there’s no direct competition in theaters, so I think it will be a surprise hit.
An action film set in Asia, so it can attract the growing Asian market. Skyscraper tried the same thing and it did not go well here. Mile 22 has much weaker star power and a much worse release date. That said, its production budget is a mere fraction of what Skyscraper cost to make, so if it can do half as well at the box office, it will still break even.
The last two weeks of August are a mess. Not only is there only one film that has a reasonable shot at becoming a midlevel hit, but there are a few that may or may not open wide. Furthermore, I’m not 100% sure all of the films below will open on the release dates we have. In fact, there’s a good chance at least one film will either move away from its current release date between now and when August 24th rolls around. Of the films opening this week, The Happytime Murders is the only one I’m even remotely bullish about and I don’t think it will hit $50 million domestically. A.X.L. is a Sci-fi movie about a teenager who finds a robotic dog. Its buzz is close to zero and it is the prototypical late summer dump. Finally there’s Searching, which may or may not open wide. Some reports have it opening in limited release on the 24th and then expanding wide on the 31st. This weekend last year was one of the worst weekend in the past several years. The best new release was Leap!, which opened with less than $5 million. If we don’t top that this year, then we might as well go home and end the movie industry.
This is a prototypical August dump. It’s a movie about a boy and his dog, only his dog is a highly advanced robot and the scientists who made him want it back. I could see this being an okay movie for kids, except the “boy” in the movie is late teens, at the youngest. It would have made more sense to make the character 10 to 13 years old, as that would be the proper target audience for a film like this. I think the studio realized their mistake, which is why they are dumping the film in theaters in late August.
This movie takes place in a world where humans and puppets live side-by-side, but puppets are considered second class citizens. When the puppets who used to work on a kids show, The Happytime Gang, start getting themselves murdered, a cop, Melissa McCarthy, a human, must team up with her ex-partner, Bill Barretta, a puppet, and investigate.
This is another prototypical August dump release. It’s a movie that was a risk with high upside, but obviously something went wrong, or it wouldn’t be coming out now. That said, it is unique enough that I think it will draw in curious moviegoers and could even become a midlevel hit.
John Cho stars as a father whose 16-year old daughter has gone missing. When there are no leads, he checks his daughter’s laptop and discovers he didn’t know her very well.
Again, a prototypical August dump. The movie is shot from the perspective of the laptop, which is an interesting hook. However, if the end result lived up to that hook, then the film would have gotten a better release date. Furthermore, there are some reports that the movie is opening in limited release on the 24th before expanding wide on the 31st. If that’s the case, then it will likely struggle even more, because this is not the kind of film that does well in limited release.
The final week of August is one of the worst weeks I can remember. There are no films that I’m 100% sure are opening wide. One of them, Ya Veremos, I’m almost 100% sure it won’t open truly wide, but it is the latest Mexican movie from Pantelion Films being released through Lionsgate. These films have a strong enough track record that it is worth talking about. Kin is about two brothers on the run from two gangs, one criminal and the other alien. Finally, Operation Finale is about the real life mission to capture a fugitive Nazi officer. On the positive side, it is Labor Day long weekend, so at least the film’s have the holiday to help them out. This weekend last year, there were no wide releases. None. The Hitman’s Bodyguard earned first place with just over $10 million. We have to beat that this year, right? Right!?
Myles Truitt plays a young boy who finds an alien weapon and along with his brother goes on the run from both the aliens and a crime boss. The trailer isn’t bad, but the buzz is quiet, even compared to the other late August releases, so quiet that I’m not sure it is getting a truly wide release.
This film was originally set for a September release, but it was moved up to late August due to good test screenings. That doesn’t make a lot of sense. There’s less good competition this weekend, but that’s because this is a terrible weekend to release a movie. It opens on Wednesday, so maybe this will give it a boost, as it has a two full days by itself. Or, it will flop, because not enough people will know it is a Wednesday debut. Given it’s release date, I’m willing to bet it will flop.
This is a Pantelion film that is being released through Lionsgate. This arrangement has resulted in some really big foreign-language hits, like Instructions Not Included. I don’t think this film will do as well, but it could be the biggest hit of the week. There’s not a lot of competition for that title.
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Weekend of August 3rd, 2018
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Christopher Robin
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Official Site: Movies.Disney.com/Christopher-Robin
Distributor: Walt Disney
Release Date: August 3rd, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG for some action.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Adventure
Keywords:
Mid-Life Crisis, Boss From Hell, Dysfunctional Family, Living Toys, Workaholic
Directed By: Marc Forster
Written By: Alex Ross Perry, Tom McCarthy, Allison Schroeder, A.A. Milne
Starring: Ewan McGregor
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $50 million to $60 million
Box Office Potential: $105 million
The Darkest Minds
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Official Site: FoxMovies.com/Movies/The-Darkest-Minds
Distributor: 20th Century Fox
Release Date: August 3rd, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for violence including disturbing images, and thematic elements.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords:
Runaway, Betrayal, Resistance Fighter, Near Future, Psychics, Fugitive / On the Run, Bounty Hunter
Directed By: Jennifer Yuh Nelson
Written By: Chad Hodge, Alexandra Bracken
Starring: Amandla Stenberg, Harris Dickinson, Skylan Brooks, Miya Cech
Production Budget: Estimated at $20 million to $30 million
Box Office Potential: $30 million
The Spy Who Dumped Me
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Official Site: TheSpyWhoDumpedMe.movie
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: August 3rd, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for violence, language throughout, some crude sexual material and graphic nudity.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Comedy
Keywords:
Los Angeles, C.I.A., Relationships Gone Wrong, Hitmen, Exes in Love, Secret Agent, Fugitive / On the Run
Directed By: Susanna Fogel
Written By: Susanna Fogel, David Iserson
Starring: Mila Kunis, Kate McKinnon, Justin Theroux, Sam Heughan
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $30 million to $50 million
Box Office Potential: $55 million
Weekend of August 10th, 2018
Dog Days
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Official Site: DogDaysTheFilm.com
Distributor: LD Entertainment
Release Date: August 10th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG for rude and suggestive content, and for language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Drama
Keywords:
Segments, Ensemble, Animal Lead, Romance
Directed By: Ken Marino
Written By: Elissa Matsueda, Erica Oyama
Starring: Nina Dobrev, Vanessa Hudgens, Adam Pally, Eva Longoria, Rob Corddry, Tone Bell, Jon Bass, Michael Cassidy, Thomas Lennon, Tig Notaro, Finn Wolfhard, Ron Cephas Jones
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 million to $30 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million
The Meg
Official Site: TheMeg.movie
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: August 10th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for action/peril, bloody images and some language.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Action
Keywords:
Animals Gone Bad, Underwater, Exes in Love, Rescue, Dishonorable Discharge, Redemption
Directed By: Jon Turteltaub
Written By: Dean Georgaris, Jon Hoeber, Erich Hoeber, Steve Alten
Starring: Jason Statham, Li Bingbing, Rainn Wilson, Ruby Rose, Winston Chao, Cliff Curtis
Production Budget: Reported at $150 million
Box Office Potential: $45 million
Slender Man
Official Site: SlenderMan.movie
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: August 10th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for disturbing images, sequences of terror, thematic elements and language including some crude sexual references.
Source: Based on Folk Tale/Legend/Fairytale
Genre: Horror
Keywords:
Supernatural, Missing Child, Mental Hospital, Mind Control
Directed By: Sylvain White
Written By: David Birke, Eric Knudsen
Starring: Joey King, Julia Goldani Telles, Jaz Sinclair, Annalise Basso, Talitha Bateman
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $10 million or less
Box Office Potential: $30 million
Weekend of August 17th, 2018
Alpha
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Official Site: Alpha-TheMovie.com
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: August 17th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for some intense peril.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Adventure
Keywords:
Cavemen, Lone Survivor, Prehistoric Times, Animal Lead
Directed By: Albert Hughes
Written By: Dan Wiedenhaupt, Albert Hughes
Starring: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Leonor Varela
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $40 million to $60 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million
Crazy Rich Asians
Official Site: Crazyrichasiansmovie.com/
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: August 15th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for some suggestive content and language.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Comedy
Keywords:
Singapore, Asian-Americans, Romance, You Can't Go Home Again, Dysfunctional Family, Cross-Class Romance, Culture Clash
Directed By: Jon M. Chu
Written By: Peter Chiarelli, Adele Lim, Kevin Kwan
Starring: Constance Wu, Henry Golding
Production Budget: $30 million
Box Office Potential: $55 million
Mile 22
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Official Site: Mile22.movie
Distributor: STX Entertainment
Release Date: August 17th, 2018
MPAA Rating:
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Action
Keywords:
C.I.A., Demoted, Indonesia, Death of a Son or Daughter, Revenge, Crime Boss, Organized Crime, Bounty/Price on one's Head, Fugitive / On the Run, Corrupt Cops, Betrayal
Directed By: Peter Berg
Written By: Graham Roland, Lea Carpenter
Starring: Mark Wahlberg, Iko Uwais, John Malkovich, Lauren Cohan, Ronda Rousey
Production Budget: $35 million
Box Office Potential: $45 million
Weekend of August 24th, 2018
A.X.L.
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Official Site: ALXMovie.com/
Distributor: Global Road
Release Date: August 24th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG for sci-fi action/peril, suggestive material, thematic elements and some language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Drama
Keywords:
Scientific Experiment Gone Awry, Robot, Artificial Intelligence, Animal Lead, Social Outcast
Directed By: Oliver Daly
Written By: Oliver Daly
Starring: Alex Neustaedter, Dorian Kingi
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $40 million to $60 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million
The Happytime Murders
Official Site: TheHappyTimeMurders.movie
Distributor: STX Entertainment
Release Date: August 24th, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for strong crude and sexual content and language throughout, and some drug material.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Black Comedy
Keywords:
Puppets in a Live Action World, Private Investigator, Serial Killer, Police Detective, Murder Mystery, Framed, Fugitive / On the Run, Buddy Cop, Death of a Sibling
Directed By: Brian Henson
Written By: Todd Berger, Erich Hoeber, Jon Hoeber, Dee Robertsn, Melissa McCarthy, Todd Berger, Dee Robertsn
Starring: Melissa McCarthy, Bill Barretta
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $30 million to $40 million
Box Office Potential: $45 million
Searching
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Official Site: Searching.movie
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: August 24th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for thematic content, some drug and sexual references, and for language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords:
Missing Person, Missing Child, Dysfunctional Family, Internet, Unbelieving Police
Directed By: Aneesh Chaganty
Written By: Aneesh Chaganty, Sev Ohanian
Starring: John Cho, Debra Messing
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at under $10
Box Office Potential: $15 million
Weekend of August 31st, 2018
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Kin
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Official Site: Kin.movie
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: August 31st, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for gun violence and intense action, suggestive material, language, thematic elements and drinking
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Action
Keywords:
Alien Encounters, Gangs, Life on the Outside, Young Child Dealing with the Death of a Parent, Fugitive / On the Run, Death of a Sibling, Revenge, Money Troubles, FBI, Strippers / Stripping, Adopted Family
Directed By: Jonathan Baker, Josh Baker
Written By: Jonathan Baker, Josh Baker, Daniel Casey, Jonathan Baker, Josh Baker
Starring: Myles Truitt
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 million to $30 million
Box Office Potential: $20 million
Operation Finale
Official Site: OperationFinaleFilm.com
Distributor: MGM
Release Date: August 29th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for disturbing thematic content and related violent images, and for some language.
Source: Based on Real Life Events
Genre: Drama
Keywords:
Nazis Outside of World War II, World War II, Holocaust, Secret Agent, 1960s, Argentina
Directed By: Chris Weitz
Written By: Matthew Orton
Starring: Ben Kingsley, Oscar Isaac
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $30 million to $40 million
Box Office Potential: $15 million
Ya Veremos
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Official Site: Facebook.com/YaVeremosMovie
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: August 31st, 2018
MPAA Rating:
Genre: Drama
Keywords:
Children Dealing with Divorce, Divorced Couple Falling Back in Love, Medical and Hospitals, Romance
Directed By: Pedro Pablo Ibarra
Written By: Alberto Bremer
Starring: Mauricio Ochmann, Fernanda Castillo
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $10 million
Box Office Potential: $20 million
Filed under: Monthly Preview, The Darkest Minds, Christopher Robin, Mile 22, The Happytime Murders, Alpha, The Meg, Slender Man, The Spy Who Dumped Me, Crazy Rich Asians, BlacKkKlansman, Kin, Dog Days, Operation Finale, Blindspotting, Searching, A.X.L., Ya Veremos, Death of a Nation, Kung Fu Panda, The Conjuring, Ewan McGregor, Mark Wahlberg, Hayley Atwell, Bill Barretta, Peter Berg, John Cho, Lauren Cohan, Rob Corddry, Jim Cummings, Cliff Curtis, Nina Dobrev, Marc Forster, James Franco, Brian Henson, Vanessa Hudgens, Albert Hughes, Oscar Isaac, Joey King, Ben Kingsley, Mila Kunis, Thomas Lennon, Eva Longoria, John Malkovich, Ken Marino, Melissa McCarthy, Tom McCarthy, Debra Messing, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jason Statham, Justin Theroux, Jon Turteltaub, Leonor Varela, Chris Weitz, Sylvain White, Rainn Wilson, Michelle Yeoh, Eric Knudsen, Jon Hoeber, Erich Hoeber, Peter Chiarelli, Todd Berger, Adam Pally, Jennifer Yuh Nelson, A.A. Milne, Amandla Stenberg, Li Bingbing, Winston Chao, Dorian Kingi, Constance Wu, Iko Uwais, Alex Ross Perry, Jon M. Chu, Dean Georgaris, Michael Cassidy, Annalise Basso, Skylan Brooks, Tig Notaro, Jack Reynor, Ronda Rousey, David Birke, Chad Hodge, Alexandra Bracken, Susanna Fogel, Kate McKinnon, Jaz Sinclair, Sev Ohanian, Mauricio Ochmann, Graham Roland, Dee Robertson, Erica Oyama, Jon Bass, , Talitha Bateman, Fernanda Castillo, Alex Neustaedter, Allison Schroeder, Ruby Rose, Pedro Pablo Ibarra, Harris Dickinson, Miya Cech, Finn Wolfhard, Jonathan Baker, Oliver Daly, Steve Alten, Bronte Carmichael, Josh Baker, Elissa Matsueda, Sam Heughan, Aneesh Chaganty, Matthew Orton, Adele Lim, Kevin Kwan, Henry Golding, David Iserson, Julia Goldani Telles, Ron Cephas Jones, Daniel Casey, Myles Truitt, Tone Bell, Lea Carpenter, Alberto Bremer