2018 Preview: July

July 1, 2018

Ant-Man and the Wasp

June was amazing, with two absolute monster hits and a solid $100 million hit. By the end of the month, 2018’s lead over 2017 will be well over $500 million, or close to 10%. Even if 2018 only managed to maintain this lead in terms of raw numbers for the rest of the year, it will be a massive jump at the box office. As for July, there are a couple of potential monster hits, Ant-Man and the Wasp and Mission: Impossible—Fallout, plus four potential $100 million hits. Last July, there was only one monster hit, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and three $100 million hits. I don’t think 2018 will match 2017 at the top, but 2018 appears to have more depth and that should put it a little ahead over the full month.

Weekend of July 6th, 2018

Ant-Man and the Wasp

The first weekend of the month has what should be the biggest hit of the month, Ant-Man and the Wasp. The latest film in the MCU should dominate the box office; however, this weekend last year, Spider-Man: Homecoming debuted and I don’t think Ant-Man and the Wasp can compete with that. The second wide release of the week is The First Purge and it is widely expected to be a solid mid-level hit. Sorry to Bother You is also opening this week, but it is opening in limited release. However, there’s significant buzz and many think it will do well enough to earn some level of mainstream success.

Ant-Man and the Wasp

Ant-Man and the Wasp
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Marvel.com/Antman
Distributor: Walt Disney
Release Date: July 6th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for some sci-fi action violence.
Source: Based on Comic/Graphic Novel
Genre: Action
Keywords: Marvel Comics, Tiny Worlds, Fugitive / On the Run, House Arrest, Father's Footsteps, Dysfunctional Family, Ensemble
Directed By: Peyton Reed
Written By: Chris McKenna, Erik Sommers, Andrew Barrer, Paul Rudd, Gabriel Ferrari, Stan Lee, Larry Lieber, Jack Kirby
Starring: Paul Rudd, Evangeline Lilly, Michael Peña, Walton Goggins, Hannah John-Kamen, Michelle Pfeiffer, Laurence Fishburne, Michael Douglas
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $150 million
Box Office Potential: $225 million

I almost feel bad for Ant-Man and the Wasp. This is the third release in the MCU this year, and the previous films both earned around $700 million domestically. This film isn’t expected to earn half of that. It should improve upon the first Ant-man, but that was the lowest performing installment in the MCU since the first phase. The early reviews are very promising, while the first film earned an A from CinemaScore, so the audiences have a lot of good will towards the film. I’m still not expecting a $100 million opening at the box office, but there’s not a lot of direct competition for the rest of the summer, so it should have good legs, meaning $250 million domestically isn’t out of the question.

The First Purge

The First Purge
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: TheFirstPurge.com
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: July 4th, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for strong disturbing violence throughout, pervasive language, some sexuality and drug use.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Horror
Keywords: Political, Prequel, Serial Killer, Near Future, Dystopia, Class Warfare, Government Corruption, Terrorism
Directed By: Gerard McMurray
Written By: James DeMonaco
Starring: Y'Lan Noel
Production Budget: Unknown - estimated at $10 million to $15 million
Box Office Potential: $65 million

This is the fourth film in the Purge franchise. As all the previous three films have been wildly profitable given their budgets, I expect this one will be the same. That said, I do think the franchise has peaked at the box office and it will drop a little bit domestically. It will do enough to get a fifth installment in the franchise, but I don’t know how many more installments will be made, or at least released theatrically.

Weekend of July 13th, 2018

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

There are two potential $100 million hits opening this weekend, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation and Skyscraper. Normally it is a really bad idea to open two such films the same weekend; however, these two films have almost no crossover appeal, so they shouldn’t cannibalize each others’ audiences. This weekend last year, War for the Planet of the Apes debut with $56 million, while Spider-Man: Homecoming held onto $44 million. It is going to be really rough for our two new releases to match that this year, but I think 2018 will have better depth and will earn the win in the year-over-year comparison.

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Hotelt3.com/
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: July 13th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG for some action and rude humor
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Adventure
Keywords: Monster, Vampire, Werewolf, Frankenstien's Monster, Summer Vacation, Dysfunctional Family, Generational Conflict, Romance, On a Boat, Interspecies Romance, Faked Romance, Mummy
Directed By: Genndy Tartakovsky
Written By: Genndy Tartakovsky, Michael McCullers, Todd Durham
Starring: Adam Sandler, Andy Samberg, Selena Gomez, Kevin James, David Spade, Steve Buscemi, Keegan-Michael Key
Production Budget: Reported at $65 million
Box Office Potential: $155 million

This is the third film in the Hotel Transylvania franchise. This time, the gang take a summer vacation on a cruise liner. Dracula falls in love with the captain of the ship, Ericka Van Helsing, who is the ancestor of Abraham Van Helsing, famed monster hunter. This franchise has never really won over critics and the previous two installments only managed A minuses from CinemaScore, which is a little weak for a family film. On the other hand, the films have been a bargain compared to most digitally animated movies and they’ve been fantastically profitable from the start and I see no reason this one will be any different.

Skyscraper

Skyscraper
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: SkyscraperMovie.com
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: July 13th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG for sequences of gun violence and action, and for brief strong language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Action
Keywords: Disaster, Rescue, FBI, Ex-soldier, Amputee, Hong Kong, Terrorism, Framed, Trapped
Directed By: Rawson Marshall Thurber
Written By: Rawson Marshall Thurber
Starring: Dwayne Johnson
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at just over $100 million
Box Office Potential: $105 million

Dwayne Johnson is on a streak, as the biggest domestic hit of his career came out late last year and it looks like Rampage is getting the boost it needs to get over $100 million domestically. I think Skyscraper will be on the very low end of that range, but it will still do well enough to crack the $100 million mark.

Weekend of July 20th, 2018

Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!

This is the busiest week of the month with three wide releases, while two of them have a shot at being $100 million hits. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! likely won’t live up to its predecessor, but I would be surprised if it didn’t earn at least $100 million. The Equalizer 2 has a better shot at matching its predecessor, but it has barely a 50/50 chance at topping $100 million. The final wide release of the week is Unfriended: Dark Web, which I think is going to get lost in the crowd. This weekend last year, Dunkirk opened with just over $50 million and there were five other films that earned $10 million or more. That might be too much for 2018 to match.

The Equalizer 2

The Equalizer 2
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Equalizer.movie
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: July 20th, 2018
MPAA Rating:
Source: Based on TV
Genre: Action
Keywords: Death of a Best Friend, Revenge
Directed By: Antoine Fuqua
Written By: Richard Wenk, Michael Sloan, Richard Lindheim (Writer)
Starring: Denzel Washington
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $50 million to $70 million
Box Office Potential: $85 million

The first Equalizer earned 60% positive reviews and an A minus from CinemaScore. Both of those results are fine. They are nothing special, but not so weak that one would expect the sequel to collapse at the box office. The four-year gap between installments in the franchise isn’t a good sign and I don’t think it will live up to its predecessor. It should be close and if The Equalizer 2 does top $100 million, I won’t be really surprised.

Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!

Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: MammaMiaMovie.com
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: July 20th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for some suggestive material
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Musical
Keywords: Prequel, Non-Chronological, Pregnant Women, Romance, Love Triangle, Ensemble
Directed By: Ol Parker
Written By: Ol Parker, Catherine Johnson, Richard Curtis, Ol Parker
Starring: Amanda Seyfried, Meryl Streep, Lily James, Christine Baranski, Jessica Keenan Wynn, Julie Walters, Alexa Davies, Pierce Brosnan, Jeremy Irvine, Colin Firth, Hugh Skinner, Stellan Skarsgård, Josh Dylan
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $60 million to $80 million
Box Office Potential: $125 million

The original Mamma Mia! came out ten years ago earning over $600 million worldwide on a $52 million budget. It should come as no surprise that it is getting a sequel. It is a surprise that it took a decade to get one. There are also some reasons to be skeptical about Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!’s box office chances. The original movie was based on a stage musical, that in turn was based on the music of ABBA. The sequel has a lot of repeated songs, more than half-a-dozen of them. There are also a lot of songs that even fans of ABBA would admit are not among the band’s best. This could mean the highlight of the first film, the music, will be more of a detriment here, as fans will feel the music just isn’t as good here. That said, I still think it will be a solid $100 million hit.

Unfriended: Dark Web

Unfriended: Dark Web
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Unfriended-DarkWeb.com
Distributor: OTL Releasing
Release Date: July 20th, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for some disturbing violence, language and sexual references.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Horror
Keywords: Internet, Teenage Slasher
Directed By: Stephen Susco
Written By: Stephen Susco
Starring: Colin Woodell
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at under $5 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million

The original Unfriended only cost $1 million to make, but earned good reviews and pulled in $32 million domestically. The sequel’s early reviews are a little better, but I don’t think that will translate into a higher box office run. It is the third biggest release of the week, while there are three holdovers that could earn more than it during its opening weekend. The competition is just too intense for this film to thrive. That said, it should still break even early in its home market run.

Weekend of July 27th, 2018

Mission: Impossible—Fallout

The final weekend of July has two wide releases. Mission: Impossible—Fallout has a 50/50 chance of being a $200 million hit at the domestic box office. Teen Titans Go! To The Movies does not. This weekend last year, like last week, was led by Dunkirk, while there were a total of six films that earned $10 million or more. The top two films made just over $50 million and Mission: Impossible—Fallout should open with more than that, so 2018 has the advantage in the year-over-year comparison.

Mission: Impossible—Fallout

Mission: Impossible—Fallout
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: MissionImpossible.com
Distributor: Paramount Pictures
Release Date: July 27th, 2018
MPAA Rating:
Source: Based on TV
Genre: Action
Keywords: C.I.A., Secret Agent, Hitmen, 3-D, Prison Break, Ensemble
Directed By: Christopher McQuarrie
Written By: Christopher McQuarrie, Bruce Geller
Starring: Tom Cruise, Rebecca Ferguson, Ving Rhames, Simon Pegg, Michelle Monaghan, Alec Baldwin, Sean Harris, Henry Cavill, Angela Bassett
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $150 million to $175 million
Box Office Potential: $205 million

This is the sixth installment in the Mission: Impossible franchise. The previous five installments have pulled in nearly $1 billion domestically and close to $3 billion worldwide. Not too long ago, these numbers would be unthinkable for a franchise. However, then the MCU happened. Speaking of the MCU, Ant-Man and the Wasp is also opening this month and it is widely expected to be the bigger hit of the month. In fact, if Ant-Man and the Wasp over perform, then Fallout might lose a little steam at the box office. Worse still, there are two other action / thrillers opening between Ant-Man and the Wasp and this film, so the market could be saturated at that point. On the positive side, it is the last big action film of the summer, so its legs should be relatively long.

Teen Titans Go! To The Movies

Teen Titans Go! To The Movies
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: TeenTitansGo-Movie.com
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: July 27th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG for action and rude humor.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Adventure
Keywords: D.C. Comics, Movie Business, Celebrity Worship, Cyborg, Friendly Alien on Earth, Demons, Shapeshifter, Coming of Age
Directed By:
Written By: Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Bob Haney, Bruno Premiani, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic
Starring: Scott Menville, Greg Cipes, Hyden Walch, Khary Payton, Will Arnett
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $30 million to $50 million
Box Office Potential: $55 million

This is a hard movie to predict, because while the buzz is overwhelmingly negative, this buzz is coming from adult fans of comics and not the film’s target audience, kids. That said, animated movies based on TV shows are rarely $100 million movies, especially when that TV show is still on the air. The Simpsons Movie did it, but that’s it. On the positive side, the TV show is really popular among its target audience, while this is the last animated film of the summer, so it could have strong legs.

Filed under: Monthly Preview, The Equalizer 2, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Mission: Impossible—Fallout, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, The First Purge, Skyscraper, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, Teen Titans Go! To The Movies, Sorry to Bother You, Unfriended: Dark Web, Mission: Impossible, Marvel Cinematic Universe, The Purge, Hotel Transylvania, The Equalizer, Tom Cruise, Meryl Streep, Denzel Washington, Will Arnett, Alec Baldwin, Christine Baranski, Angela Bassett, Pierce Brosnan, Steve Buscemi, Henry Cavill, Michael Douglas, Colin Firth, Laurence Fishburne, Antoine Fuqua, Jim Gaffigan, Kathryn Hahn, Sean Harris, Kevin James, Dwayne Johnson, Stan Lee, Evangeline Lilly, Michelle Monaghan, Khary Payton, Simon Pegg, Michael Peña, Michelle Pfeiffer, Peyton Reed, Ving Rhames, Paul Rudd, Andy Samberg, Adam Sandler, Amanda Seyfried, Stellan Skarsgård, David Spade, Julie Walters, Selena Gomez, Christopher McQuarrie, Larry Lieber, Jack Kirby, Michael McCullers, Richard Wenk, Genndy Tartakovsky, Ol Parker, Jeremy Irvine, Bruce Geller, Richard Curtis, Scott Menville, Keegan-Michael Key, Lily James, Stephen Susco, Catherine Johnson, Todd Durham, Walton Goggins, James DeMonaco, Hugh Skinner, , Rawson Marshall Thurber, Greg Cipes, Andrew Barrer, Rebecca Ferguson, Michael Sloan, Josh Dylan, Chris McKenna, Erik Sommers, Hannah John-Kamen, Alexa Davies, Jessica Keenan Wynn, Gerard McMurray, Richard Lindheim, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Gabriel Ferrari, Y'Lan Noel, Colin Woodell, Bob Haney, Bruno Premiani