Follow us on

Weekend Predictions: Will Jason be a Bourne Again Box Office Hit?

July 28th, 2016

Jason Bourne

The month of July comes to an end this weekend and there are three wide releases hoping the month goes out on a high note. Jason Bourne is the only one with a shot at first place, while Bad Moms is looking to become a solid counter-programming hit. Meanwhile, Nerve opened on Wednesday and it just doesn’t want to slip between the cracks. As far as holdovers are concerned, Star Trek Beyond's daily numbers are average for the summer, but that will still be enough to hit the century mark over the weekend. It won’t be the only film to reach $100 million over the weekend. This weekend last year was led by Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation with $55.52 million. I don’t think Jason Bourne will top that, but since the second best film, Vacation, made less than $15 million, I think 2016 will win on depth.

It has been a while since a Bourne film starring Matt Damon came out. Jason Bourne will determine if moviegoers still care enough about that character to go to theaters. I’m betting the answer is, “Kind of”. The original film brought a new style to action films, but the critics are complaining that there’s not a lot new here. Also, it’s been a bad year for sequels / remakes / reboots with almost none of these films living up to their predecessors. That said, the return of Matt Damon should keep Jason Bourne ahead of The Bourne Legacy. I think it will top $50 million over the weekend, but it won’t top last week’s opening for Star Trek Beyond, earning $54 million. The film only cost $120 million, which is low for a tentpole release this summer, so anything more than $50 million will be good enough.

Star Trek Beyond’s daily numbers have been on par with most other live action tentpole releases this summer, which is both good news and bad news. This means it is unlikely to collapse falling more than 60% during its sophomore stint, but like most other such films to come out this year, it will be close. Look for $25 million over the weekend, which will be enough to push its running tally over $100 million.

Bad Moms is an R-rated comedy aimed at women. Only a few years ago, this subgenre practically didn’t exist. Now, I think it is past its prime. That’s not to say there is no audience for these films, but they are now relegated to midlevel hits and almost none top $100 million. Bad Momsearly reviews are mixed while the buzz is fine, but not loud. It has a decent shot at second place, but I think it will have to settle for third place with $24 million. This is more than it reportedly cost to make, so the studio should be happy about that.

The Secret Life of Pets is racing towards $300 million at the box office. It won’t get there this weekend, but it will make about $16 million, meaning that milestone is inevitable.

Last weekend, there was a three-way race for third place. This weekend there will be a three-way race for fifth place. Ice Age: Collision Course has the best shot at fifth place, because it is a family film and there is no direct competition. However, the reviews are a real problem. Look for just over $11 million over the weekend.

Ghostbusters should land in sixth place with $11 million. Its good reviews will help and it isn’t a sophomore film, so it likely won’t drop as much as it did last weekend. The film will hit $100 million over the weekend, which is a reason to celebrate. That said, it will still need help internationally and on the home market to break even.

Lights Out should be next with just under $11 million. It is earning great reviews, but horror films rarely have long legs. That said, it only cost $5 million to make and likely less than $20 million to advertise, and it is on pace to top $50 million with ease, so it could break even just on its domestic numbers.

The final wide release of the week is Nerve, which stars Emma Roberts as a young woman who gets mixed up with a new App that can have deadly consequences. The reviews are just at the overall positive level, so they will neither hurt nor help ticket sales. The film did pull in $1.1 million during its previews on Tuesday. We don’t have the opening day Wednesday numbers yet, but that $1.1 million is a bigger number than I was expecting. Films of this genre tend to not have great legs, and the Wednesday opening will take some of the air out of its weekend numbers. That said, it still has a shot at fifth place with $12 million or so over the three-day weekend, but I’m going to be a little more cautious and say $10 million over the weekend for a total opening of $15 million.

- Jason Bourne Comparisons
- Bad Moms Comparisons
- Nerve Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Ghostbusters, The Secret Life of Pets, Jason Bourne, Ice Age: Collision Course, Lights Out, Star Trek Beyond, Bad Moms, Nerve, Bourne, Matt Damon, Emma Roberts