Friday Estimates: Moana Adds $21.83 million on Black Friday to Earn a Technical Record
November 26, 2016
Moana remained the dominant film at the box office on Friday, pulling in $21.86 million. This is lower than the $23 million we were hoping for yesterday, but it still puts the film on pace to break the record for the biggest Thanksgiving opening, currently held by Tangled at $48.77 million / $68.71 million. (Frozen opened in limited release the week before Thanksgiving, so it technically doesn’t hold the record for best Thanksgiving opening, although it does have the best Thanksgiving weekend for an animated film with $67.4 million / $93.6 million.) Moana should earn just under $55 million over the three-day weekend for a five-day total of just over $80 million. This would put the film in a tie with Toy Story 2 for sixth place on the list of all-time best Thanksgiving weekends, depending on how well it does for the rest of the weekend. Furthermore, its 98% positive reviews and its A rating from CinemaScore suggest long legs going forward. It should still be in a lot of theaters on Christmas day.
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them grew by 92% to $18.6 million on Friday, putting it on pace for nearly $45 million over the three-day weekend. This is on the high end of expectations and more than enough to ensure the film will be a financial success. If Warner Bros. hadn’t already announced four sequels, this result would have guaranteed another installment in the new franchise.
Doctor Strange remained in third place with $5.44 million on Friday for a total of $197.16 million after 22 days of release. It will reach $200 million on its 23rd day in theaters.
Allied was next with $4.94 million on Friday and $9.96 million after three days of release. It is on pace to earn $12 million over the three-day weekend and $17 million over five, which may or may not be enough to keep it ahead of Arrival. Its reviews and its B from CinemaScore are not real selling points, but it does have a more mature target audience, so that could help its legs. It will need long legs to be a hit. I’ve seen conflicting reports about its production budget with $65 million and $85 million being bandied about. If the film cost $65 million, then a $17 million, five-day opening is disappointing. If it cost $85 million, then it would take a minor miracle to break even.
Bad Santa 2 slipped to eighth place with just $2.30 million on Friday for a total of $5.22 million after three days of release. Both its reviews (25% positive) and its CinemaScore (C+) are terrible, so there’s little hope for the film going forward. The film should finish with under $6 million / over $8 million during its opening weekend, which is really bad news for a film that reportedly cost $25 million to make.
Rules Don’t Apply continues to bomb, missing the top ten with just $600,000 on Friday. It will make barely more than $2 million over five days and will disappear from theaters before Christmas arrives.
- Moana Comparisons
- Allied Comparisons
- Bad Santa 2 Comparisons
- Rules Don’t Apply Comparisons
Filed under: Friday Estimates, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Doctor Strange, Arrival, Allied, Bad Santa 2, Rules Don’t Apply, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them