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Friday Estimates: Cars Doesn’t Burn up the Track, Still Wins Friday with $19.5 million

June 17th, 2017

Cars 3

As expected, Cars 3 earned first place on Friday, but it was a little more subdued than expected, with just $19.5 million for the day. This is a higher opening day than The Lego Batman Movie managed, but family films have a much higher internal multiplier outside of summer, because kids won’t be able to see the movie during matinees on the Friday. If it has the same internal multiplier as Finding Dory had, it would open with $48 million. While Cars 3’s reviews are not as good, it earned an A from CinemaScore, the same as Dory did. Furthermore, Cars 3 is being seen much more by kids than Dory was, as that film had a larger share of adult animation fans, so this should also help its legs. It won’t match our prediction of $58 million, but $51 million is still a great result.

All Eyez on Me opened in second place with $12.8 million. This is not that much lower than the low end of expectations were for its full weekend opening. Its early reviews are terrible, which won’t help its legs, but it managed an A minus from CinemaScore, so it won’t be too bad. An opening of just north of $30 million is great for a film like this, but it won’t be enough to keep it in second place.

Wonder Woman is just... wow. Okay. The film pulled in $10.85 million on Friday, which is just 31% lower than last Friday. Assuming it has a similar internal multiplier, which is a relatively safe assumption, means it will earn just over $40 million this weekend and will finish the weekend with about $275 million domestically. At this point, it is clear this film will become the biggest hit in the DCEU. The real question is how well will it do compared to other superhero movies, specifically the MCU. Can it catch up to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2? Stay tuned, as we will track its progress.

47 Meters Down earned almost as much on Friday, $4.5 million, as we predicted it would earn in total. In our defense, there was no evidence it would find an audience. It is released by a distributor with a name so generic, Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures, it sounds like a placeholder name a screenwriter accidentally left in the final script. The reviews are around 50% positive, while its CinemaScore is a mere C, so it likely won’t have a good internal multiplier. Look for $11 million over the weekend.

The Mummy fell a little faster than expected earning $3.8 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $13 million over the weekend. This isn’t enough to be a success, at least not domestically. It is a much bigger hit internationally.

Rough Night is struggling, to be kind, earning just $3.35 million on Friday. Its not even going to get to $10 million during its opening weekend. It will finish its domestic run with less money than most people were assuming it would make during its opening weekend. Its reviews are in the 50% positive range, while it only managed a C plus from CinemaScore. Neither of these results are good, but they are miles ahead of its box office results.

One last result worth looking at is The Book of Henry, which opened with $508,000 in 579 theaters. It won’t open below the Mendoza Line, but it will come awfully close. The film’s box office numbers, plus its reviews, are so bad that more than a few people are talking about whether or not Colin Trevorrow, the director, will keep his Star Wars Episode IX job.

Friday Box Office Chart

- Cars 3 Comparisons
- Rough Night Comparisons
- All Eyez on Me Comparisons
- 47 Meters Down Comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Wonder Woman, All Eyez on Me, The Mummy, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, The Book of Henry, Cars 3, Rough Night, 47 Meters Down, Marvel Cinematic Universe, DC Extended Universe, Colin Trevorrow
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