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Weekend Predictions: Will Rampage Shake Up the Box Office?

April 12th, 2018


Rampage is the biggest new release of the week and at one time it was widely assumed it would be the biggest hit of the month. Granted, this changed the second Infinity War moved up to an April release. However, now the film likely won’t even be the second biggest hit of the month, as A Quiet Place dominated last weekend. Truth or Dare has to deal with direct competition and that’s going to kill it. Finally, Isle of Dogs is expanding semi-wide. It likely won’t reach the top five, but it is already doing well for a limited release. This weekend last year, The Fate of the Furious opened with nearly $100 million. That’s about what the top four will earn this year. I can’t imagine 2018 coming ahead in the year-over-year comparison.

Rampage is the latest movie based on a video game. These movies have a reputation for being, well, horrible. The best ever major theatrical release for a video game movie was Tomb Raider, which earned 49% positive reviews. Rampage’s reviews are also 49% positive, at least at the moment. It has bounced around a few points throughout the day. At the beginning of the month, I was anticipating a nearly $40 million opening weekend. However, the competition from A Quiet Place will likely result in a $35 million opening weekend. This isn’t a bad opening, but the film will need to find success internationally to cover its $120 million production budget.

A Quiet Place should earn a solid second place with just under $25 million. Granted, its reviews are amazing, but it is still a horror film and those rarely have long legs. Additionally, it has to deal with Rampage, which has a large section of crossover appeal. Both action films and horror movies attract more younger, male moviegoers. Meanwhile, Truth or Dare is direct competition and that will hurt a little bit as well. That said, it should come close to a 50% decline with just under $25 million.

Ready Player One should land in third place with $14 million. Rampage is more or less direct competition and that will hurt its box office chances this weekend, but it held on better than expected last weekend, so I’m optimistic.

Truth or Dare is the latest horror film from Blumhouse. The studio had an amazing year last year with two movies earning more than $100 million. This film won’t earn anywhere near that level at the box office. Its reviews are just 21% positive and it has to deal with direct competition. That said, it only cost $3.5 million to make and it should easily make that opening day. Look for a weekend haul of $12 million and yet another financial success for Blumhouse.

Blockers should round out the top five with $11 million. Its reviews will help its legs, as will the lack of competition. While there is a $100 million movie debuting this week, there is no other comedy currently in the top ten, so the lack of competition should help the film earn a better than average hold.

Isle of Dogs is expanding nearly truly wide and that should help it rise at the box office this weekend. Last weekend, the film earned 10th place with $4.56 million. This weekend, I think it will climb to 6th place with $7 million. That won’t be enough to justify further significant expansion, but it will be enough to keep it in theaters for several more weeks.

Finally we have Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero, which is opening semi-wide. There are not a lot of reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, but the ones there are 90% positive. Unfortunately, the film is tracking towards a $2 million opening, which won’t be enough to earn a spot in the top ten.

- Rampage Comparisons
- Truth or Dare Comparisons
- Isle of Dogs Comparisons
- Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Rampage, Ready Player One, Get Out, Blockers, Tomb Raider, Isle of Dogs, Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero, A Quiet Place, Truth or Dare