Weekend Predictions: Will Avengers go to Infinity?

April 26, 2018

Avengers: Infinity War

Infinity War. Do I need to say more? Infinity War is easily the most anticipated movie of the year, and some argue the most anticipated film in the past few years. There’s even talk that it will have the best three-day opening of all time. This weekend last year, The Fate of the Furious earned its third first place result with just under $20 million. Infinity War could make twice that during its midnight previews. It will make more than the entire box office made last year.

Infinity War is widely expected to become the fastest debuting film of the year, topping Black Panther’s record of $202.00 million. In fact, there are some who think it will have the best three-day opening of all time, topping The Force Awakens’ record of $247.97 million. The hype is deafening, so you can’t dismiss the possibility. Additionally, the reviews are 86% positive, which is amazing for a blockbuster film... On the other hand, it’s barely above average for the MCU. That’s amazing consistency and something we’ve never really seen before. As for its box office chances, Infinity War is expected to open with $210 million to $250 million over the weekend. I’m going with a $225 million opening, which would be the second biggest domestic weekend of all time.

On a side note, last week, I mentioned Infinity War and how I thought it was going to play out. I ended that section with, “I’m not even going to speculate here.” That turned out to be a very wise decision, as people would be yelling at me for spoiling the movie.

A Quiet Place should return to second place with just under $10 million. On the one hand, its legs so far have been better than expected. On the other hand, Infinity War. That film is going to crush the competition and even if a film isn’t dropped by a theater entirely, it is going to be relegated to the smaller screens and will get far fewer showings.

Rampage will fall faster to just over $8 million. It to has had better-than-expected legs, but it shares a much larger share of Infinity War’s target audience.

Out of all of the films in the top five, I Feel Pretty’s target audience has the least crossover with Infinity War and that should theoretically help it hold on better than the other films. However, it has weak reviews and films tend to fall the most during their second weekend of release. Add in the stiff competition and I think the film will earn just under $8 million over the weekend. That’s still enough to break even, eventually.

Super Troopers 2 should round out the top five with just over $6 million during its second weekend of release. Its reviews won’t help its legs and its target audience means it would be front-loaded under the best of circumstance. And without trying to sound like a broken record, going up against Infinity War isn’t the best of circumstances.

- Avengers: Infinity War Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Black Panther, Avengers: Infinity War, Rampage, Super Troopers 2, A Quiet Place, I Feel Pretty, Marvel Cinematic Universe