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Weekend Predictions: Infinity War Looks to Complete the Threepeat

May 10th, 2018

Life of the Party

Avengers: Infinity War will have no trouble earning first place for the third time at the box office chart. It’s only competition is the sophomore stint of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, which earned $65 million this weekend last year. Hopefully Infinity War will come within $10 million of that. As for the new releases, Life of the Party should earn more than all three new releases earned last weekend, while Breaking In is on track for an opening in the low to mid teens. If all three films can meet these expectations, then 2018 will have a shot at winning in the year-over-year comparison.

Infinity War fell 55% during its sophomore stint, which is exactly what Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 did during its second weekend of release. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 fell 47% during its third weekend of release and if Infinity War was able to do the same, it would earn just under $61 million this weekend. On the positive side, Infinity War is dealing with much weaker competition, while Guardians had to deal with direct competition. On the down side, Guardians was a more complete story and that encourages repeat viewing, while Infinity War finishes on practically a cliffhanger ending. I do think Infinity War will avoid a 50% drop-off, but it will be very close earning $58 million over the weekend. This puts it on pace to hit $500 million this weekend and it is practically guaranteed to end with $650 million. $700 million is likely out of reach, so Black Panther’s position on top of the 2018 domestic chart is safe.

Life of the Party is the third collaboration between Melissa McCarthy and Ben Falcone. The real life husband and wife team have yet to find critical success, but both of the previous films were financial hits. It appears this film will have a similar result. Its early reviews are terrible at just 17% positive, but the average score is 4.7 out of 10, so it is a matter of disliking it, not hating it. On the other hand, the buzz suggests a solid opening of $21 million over the weekend. This is quite good for a film that cost $30 million to make.

Breaking In stars Gabrielle Union as a single mother trying to defend her kids from a home invasion. Its early reviews are not good, but the buzz it relatively strong. The film is not expected to be a monster hit, or even a midlevel hit. However, it could open with $15 million over the weekend, which is likely close to what it cost to make. Even opening with $13 million, which is more likely, will still be a strong opening compared to its budget.

Overboard should add $7 million over the weekend to its running tally, which will be about $27 million. It is on pace for $40 million to $50 million domestically, which is enough to be considered a financial success.

A Quiet Place will round out the top five with about $6 million. The film is already wildly profitable.

- Life of the Party Comparisons
- Breaking In Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Black Panther, Overboard, Avengers: Infinity War, Life of the Party, A Quiet Place, Breaking In, Ben Falcone, Melissa McCarthy, Gabrielle Union
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