Weekend Predictions: Will the Latest Star Wars Release Open Solo or So High?
May 24, 2018
Memorial Day long weekend is usually a great weekend to open a big release. However, this year, Solo: A Star Wars Story is the wide release of the weekend. It will obviously open in first place, but how will it compare to the recent releases in the Star Wars franchise? Deadpool 2 will have no trouble earning second place and could by the end of the weekend be in the black. (It depends heavily on how much it cost to advertise, but I think its combined budget is around $200 million.) The only other film expected to make a dent at the box office is Avengers: Infinity War, which has already earned $600 million domestically. This weekend last year, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales opened in first place with $62.98 million / $78.48 million. There are some who think Solo will double that. I’m not that bullish, but I do think Solo will lead 2018 to an easy win in the year-over-year competition.
Since Disney bought Star Wars, there have been three films released and they have earned a total of just over $2 billion domestically. Solo: A Star Wars Story is not expected to maintain the average. In fact, it is widely expected to be the worst box office performer in the Disney era. That said, it is tracking for at least a $100 million four-day opening. In fact, it should earn $100 million over three days and could overtake At World’s End for the record three-day and four-day Memorial Day weekend. The reviews are good, but not good enough to predict a record-breaking opening, but I think a debut of $105 million / $130 million seems likely. This is an amazing start, especially when you consider all of the behind-the-scenes troubles this film went through.
Deadpool 2 should avoid a 50% drop-off, at least when comparing last weekend’s three-day opening to this weekend’s four-day run. A $65 million sophomore stint would give the film over $230 million after just 11 days of release. That’s more than enough to cover its entire $110 million production budget, while its international numbers will pay for all of its advertising budget.
Infinity War will add another $20 million over the weekend pushing it past $625 million domestically. This will allow it to overtake the original Avengers and climb into sixth place on the all-time domestic chart. Meanwhile, the film remains on pace to to climb more spots and perhaps will will overtake Titanic for fourth place.
Book Club should hold on better than most sophomore stint films. Its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore will help, but its target audience could be its biggest asset. More mature women are the demographic least likely to rush out to theaters opening weekend, but more likely to check out a film that’s been out for more than a week. There’s a slim chance the film will earn more over four days than it opened with over three days, but I think a 10% drop to $12 million is more likely. Anything above $10 million over the four-day weekend will be seen as a positive sign.
Show Dogs and Life of the Party should be in a close race for fifth place, both earning about $5 million over the four-day weekend. Life of the Party should earn fifth place over the three-day portion of the weekend, but Show Dogs is a family film, so it should bounce back more on Monday. Will it be enough to earn fifth place over the four-day weekend? It is too close to call.
- Solo: A Star Wars Story Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Avengers: Infinity War, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Deadpool 2, Life of the Party, Show Dogs, Book Club, Star Wars