Weekend Predictions: Solo Will Have No Trouble Setting the New Releases Adrift
May 31, 2018
While there are three wide releases coming out this week, Solo: A Star Wars Story should have no trouble remaining in top spot. In fact, Adrift is the only wide release that has a better than 50/50 shot at $10 million over the weekend. Action Point may or may not reach the top five. Meanwhile, there are some who think Upgrade will miss the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Wonder Woman opened with more than $100 million. The top ten won’t get there this year. 2018 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year competition.
Solo: A Star Wars Story missed expectations last weekend and since it is a post-holiday weekend, it will fall rather dramatically. For example, Dead Men Tell No Tales fell 65% during its sophomore stint. That said, that film also earned much worse reviews and had to deal with much stronger competition. I still think Solo will fall more than 60%, but it should earn about $30 million over the weekend.
Deadpool 2 will be next with about $22 million during its third weekend of release. This will keep it on pace for $300 million, but barely.
Adrift is the biggest new release of the week, but it isn’t the best. Its reviews are good, but not great, while even many of the positive reviews are not enthusiastic about the film. Worse still, the film’s buzz is extremely quiet, so it needed better reviews to really get people talking. It should still earn third place during its opening weekend with $12 million, but it will need help to pay for its $35 million production budget any time soon.
Infinity War will stick around in the top five one more week with about $9 million over the weekend for a total of about $640 million after six weeks of release.
Action Point is practically a spin-off of the Jackass franchise, only with a semblance of a plot to connect the stunts and pranks. There are still no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and the buzz isn’t loud enough to suggest it can overcome this. It should still reach the top five with about $8 million; however, if it stumbles, Book Club will be there to grab fifth place instead.
The best-reviewed wide release of the week isn’t opening truly wide. Upgrade is earning 85% reviews, but it is only opening in 1,400 theaters. There are some comparing the film to The Belko Experiment, which would give it about $4 million over the weekend, but that’s not even the worst-case scenario. It could miss the Mendoza Line earning less than $3 million during its opening weekend. I don’t think it will be quite that bad, but an opening of just over $3 million won’t keep it in theaters long.
- Adrift Comparisons
- Action Point Comparisons
- Upgrade Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Avengers: Infinity War, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Deadpool 2, Action Point, Book Club, Upgrade, Adrift, Jackass