Weekend Prediction: Will Halloween Boost Horror Holdovers?
October 26, 2018
There’s only one true wide release of the weekend, Hunter Killer, which isn’t expected to make much of an impact at the box office. (Indivisible and Johnny English Strikes Again are both opening in several hundred theaters and one of them could reach the top ten, but probably not both.) This means Halloween will have no trouble repeating on top, while Venom could hold on better than most, thanks to Halloween being less than a week away. This weekend last year, Jigsaw opened in first place with $16.64 million, while Tyler Perry’s Boo 2 was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. Halloween should earn more than those two did giving 2018 yet another win.
Halloween had an explosive start last weekend. Historically, horror films suffer steep declines during their sophomore stints. Additionally, films that open this fast also tend to have shorter legs. That said, the reviews and the synergy with Halloween should help it out a bit. That said, a decline of more than 50% is practically guaranteed. On the other extreme, it could fall just over 60% this weekend. This puts its box office in-between $30 million and $38 million. I think the lower end is more likely, but a $32 million haul would still be amazing. In fact, it would have been a relatively good opening weekend, given its production budget and the franchise.
A Star is Born should add another $13 million over the weekend, which won’t quite be enough to get to $150 million by the end of business on Sunday, but it will be close.
It looks like Venom will earn about $11 million this weekend, putting it about a week away from $200 million domestically.
Hunter Killer is the only truly wide release of the week and the only one with a shot at the top five. Its reviews are the best of the three new releases, but with a Tomatometer Score of just 36% positive, that’s not saying much. The buzz is quiet enough that earning $10 million during its opening weekend is probably asking too much, while it could miss the top five with $5 million or so. Splitting the difference gets us between $7 million and $8 million, which is probably as good as it will get.
Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween should be right behind with just under $7 million. This will push its domestic box office above its production budget, meaning it would have to really struggle internationally to not break even early in its home market run. Even if it did, it would still break even, eventually.
As for Indivisible and Johnny English Strikes Again, one of them could reach the top ten, barely. In order to get there, one of them would need to earn just over $2 million. Indivisible is a faith-based film that is earning terrible early reviews and that suggests it will miss the Mendoza Line over the weekend. The genre is on a long losing streak at the box office. The previous installment in the Johnny English franchise only manged $8.41 million domestically, including $3.83 million during its opening weekend. Johnny English Strikes Again is opening in a third as many theaters and with equally bad reviews. I think Indivisible has a slight advantage at the box office, but both will miss the top ten with about $1.5 million.
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Venom, Hunter Killer, Halloween, A Star is Born, Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, Johnny English Strikes Again, Indivisible, Halloween, Johnny English