Weekend Predictions: Will Aquaman Swim to Victory, or will Mary Poppins Return to Top Spot?
December 19, 2018
It is a busy week, as there are seven films opening wide over the next seven days. Not all of these will be hits—the competition is just too great for that. However, there could be a real race for Christmas champion this year. Because of its fast start in China and its strong pre-sales numbers, many believe Aquaman will top earlier expectations and earn first place over the three-day weekend. However, I think Mary Poppins Returns will be number one over the full week, partially because it should earn a bigger boost over Christmas, but also because it is opening two days early. Meanwhile, Bumblebee’s surprisingly strong reviews are lifting its box office potential.
On the other hand, it looks like Second Act is going to slip between the cracks. As for Welcome to Marwen, oh boy. Busted Oscar-bait doesn’t even begin to describe it.
By the way, I will talk about the two Christmas Day releases, Holmes and Watson and Vice, on Monday.
As for this weekend last year, Star Wars: The Last Jedi nearly doubled the second-placed film, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle. I don’t expect any film to top The Last Jedi this year, but both Aquaman and Mary Poppins Returns should top Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, while last year Christmas Eve landed on a Sunday, so we could be in for a good result in the year-over-year comparison.
Aquaman was already in pre-production when Justice League showed Warner Bros. that they needed to take the DCEU in another direction. Trying to course correct in the middle of pre-production is tough to do, but the reviews are actually not bad. Granted, a Tomatometer Score of 67% isn’t going to win many awards, but it is perfectly acceptable for a blockbuster action film. The film has had a massive run in China so far and that has caused talk of a massive opening here. I’ve seen predictions as high as $120 million from now until Christmas Day. I don’t think that’s going to happen. Firstly, there’s too much competition, both in general and from Bumblebee in particular, which I think will keep it from overtaking Star Wars: The Last Jedi over the weekend. Also, it’s the holidays, so a lot of people won’t feel the need to rush out to theaters opening weekend. They will have plenty of time during the week to go see it. That said, I do think it will come closer than originally expected, perhaps with over $70 million. Even the low end expectations has it pulling in over $60 million during the three-day weekend. I’m going with $67 million over the three-day weekend, which will be enough for over $100 million over the five-day weekend.
Mary Poppins Returns is a sequel to Mary Poppins, which came out more than 50 years ago. That movie is an absolute classic. This film is not, but its reviews are still very good. You can’t complain about a Tomatometer Score of 78% positive and an average review score of 7.4 out of 10. In fact, it’s average score is the best out of all of the Christmas week releases. On the other hand, it is starting its theatrical run on Wednesday, so that will burn off some of the demand before the weekend, keeping it in second place over the three-day weekend. I’ve seen five-day predictions from $50 million to over $75 million. I think the higher end is more likely and I’m going with $54 million over the three-day weekend, $72 million from Wednesday through Sunday, and just under $100 million from Wednesday through Christmas Day.
It wasn’t that long ago that Bumblebee was only expected to open with under $20 million during the three-day weekend. The Transformers franchise was suffering from some serious burnout and there were questions whether audiences would be interested in another installment for a long, long time. Then the first trailer hit, the buzz started to turn around, and expectations grew to over $20 million, maybe even $25 million. Now that the reviews are out, some are thinking it could reach $30 million over three days, maybe even $50 million over five. I would love if it could do that well, but I think $25 million over three days and $37 million over five is more realistic. That’s still a good start for this time of year for a film that cost $100 million to make. It is more than enough to get the promised sequel made.
This means Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse will be pushed into fourth place with about $19 million / $30 million over the Christmas weekend. Its reviews are award-worthy, but there’s just too much competition for it to hold on better than this. That said, this is enough to clear $100 million before the end of the year.
The Mule will round out the top five with between $10 million and $11 million over the three-day and about $16 million over five.
Second Act is the only straight comedy coming out this weekend and that should help it at the box office, as there’s no direct competition. That said, there’s still a ton of competition and Holmes and Watson debuts on Tuesday. Its reviews are mixed; in fact, they are currently exactly 50% positive. Additionally, Jennifer Lopez hasn’t had a real live-action hit in over a decade. I think this film will top $10 million over the five-day weekend, but that’s it.
Welcome to Marwen was made to win Oscars. That’s not going to happen. Its reviews are currently just 15% positive. This might earn less than Downsizing did, which was another high-concept Oscar-bait film. Look for just under $5 million over the weekend and just over $7 million in total.
- Aquaman Comparisons
- Mary Poppins Returns Comparisons
- Bumblebee Comparisons
- Second Act Comparisons
- Welcome to Marwen Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Aquaman, Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse 3D, Mary Poppins Returns, Bumblebee, Vice, Holmes & Watson, Welcome to Marwen, Second Act, The Mule, Transformers, DC Extended Universe, Jennifer Lopez