2019 Preview: March

March 1, 2019

Captain Marvel

2019 has been terrible so far and by the end of February, will be about half a billion dollars behind 2018’s pace. March should be the first step in 2019’s attempt to recover from this hole it has dug for itself. Captain Marvel will be the biggest film of the year so far and tracking has it opening with more than $100 million during the second weekend of March. While that film is undoubtedly going to become the biggest hit of the month, it isn’t the only potential hit opening in March, as both Us and Dumbo are expected to earn $100 million domestically; Dumbo might even top $200 million domestically. As for last March, there were only two films that hit $100 million, A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One, and neither of them came close to $200 million. There’s a slim chance this March will be better than last year, even if we ignore Captain Marvel. We could cut the deficit in half by the end of the month, if everything goes well. Then again, if everything went well during the first two months of the year, we wouldn’t be in such a deep hole at this point.

Weekend of March 1st, 2019

Greta

The first weekend of the month is not going to be a lucrative weekend as far as the new releases are concerned. Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral is expected to do about as well as the average Madea movie. Greta might struggle just to open above the Mendoza Line (earning less than $2,000/theater). It’s a psychological thriller with a pair of amazing leads, but the buzz isn’t where it needs to be. This weekend last year, Red Sparrow was the better of the two new releases and it still only managed $15.85 million during its debut. Does that mean 2019 could end its year-long losing streak? Nope. Black Panther earned $66.31 million over the weekend, which might be more than combined domestic totals of A Madea Family Funeral and Greta. 2019’s losing streak is just going to continue, for one more week.

Greta

Greta
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: FocusFeatures.com/Greta
Distributor: Focus Features
Release Date: March 1st, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for some violence and disturbing images.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords: Widow/Widower, Young Child Dealing with the Death of a Parent, Psychological Thriller, Obsessive Love, New York City
Directed By: Neil Jordan
Written By: Neil Jordan, Ray Wright, Ray Wright
Starring: Chloë Grace Moretz, Isabelle Huppert
Production Budget: Unknown - estimated between $10 million and $20 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million

Chloë Grace Moretz stars as a young lady who recently moved to New York after the death of her mother. One day, she sees a purse sitting on the subway and decides to return it to its owner, the titular Greta, played by Isabelle Huppert. Greta becomes something of a mother figure to the young lady, but Greta has secrets of her own.

This psychological thriller has been earning good reviews, but not great reviews, with a lot of critics saying the movie is B-movie camp at times. This phrase, or a phrase similar to it, is in a lot of positive reviews, so not every critic thinks this is a negative aspect of the film and fans of this type of film should be happy about that. On the other hand, I don’t think there’s enough fans to make this film a hit at the box office.

Last Minute Update: Greta’s reviews have fallen dramatically and they are no longer in the overall positive level. It is opening in more theaters than expected, but it will still miss original expectations.

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Madea.movie
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: March 1st, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for crude sexual content, language, and drug references throughout.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Comedy
Keywords: Genderbending Casting, Cross-Dressing, Funeral Reunions, Dysfunctional Family, African-American, Family Secrets
Directed By: Tyler Perry
Written By: Tyler Perry
Starring: Tyler Perry, Cassi Davis, Patrice Lovely, Jen Harper, Derrick Morgan, K.J. Smith, Rome Flynn, Quin Walters, David Otunga, Ciera Payton
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 million
Box Office Potential: $55 million

It’s a Madea movie. These movies are incredibly stable at the box office, which makes it harder and harder to find things to talk about. We’ve reached the point with this franchise where we really have nothing more to say.

Weekend of March 8th, 2019

Captain Marvel Captain Marvel opens this weekend. It is the only film opening this weekend, but it has a slim chance of opening with more than the entire box office earned this weekend last year. Even if it opens on the low end of expectations, it will earn about as much as the top three earned last year. 2019’s losing streak will finally end.

Captain Marvel

Captain Marvel
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Movies.Disney.com/Captain-Marvel
Distributor: Walt Disney
Release Date: March 8th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for sequences of sci-fi violence and action, and brief suggestive language.
Source: Based on Comic/Graphic Novel
Genre: Action
Keywords: War, Marvel Comics, Outer Space, Prequel, Origin Story, 1990s, Shapeshifter
Directed By: Anna Boden, Ryan Fleck
Written By: Anna Boden, Ryan Fleck, Geneva Robertson, Jac Schaeffer, Nicole Perlman, Joe Shrapnel, Anna Waterhouse
Starring: Brie Larson, Samuel L. Jackson, Ben Mendelsohn, Djimon Hounsou, Lee Pace, Lashana Lynch, Gemma Chan, Annette Bening, Clark Gregg
Production Budget: Reported at $152 million
Box Office Potential: $350 million

The latest film in the MCU hits theaters this week. The film’s tracking started out amazing and many thought it would be one of the best introductory movies in the MCU. It wouldn’t quite match Guardians of the Galaxy and Iron Man, but it would be next on that list. (This is assuming you don’t consider Black Panther to be an introductory movie, as the character was introduced in Civil War.) Then the tracking started getting better. And better. And better. Right now, the film is expected to open with between $120 million and $140 million, while some outliers have it at $160 million. I’m not that bullish, but I do think it will be the first $100 million debut of the year and should become the first true monster hit of the year. It could even challenge Wonder Woman for biggest female-led super hero movie of all time.

Weekend of March 15th, 2019

Five Feet Apart

This weekend, Captain Marvel will continue to dominate the chart, as the two new releases, Five Feet Apart and Wonder Park can be generously described as counter-programming. This weekend last year, Black Panther was still number one, but at least it was close as Tomb Raider opened with $23.63 million. Captain Marvel should earn more than the top two did last year. It could earn more than the top four did, but that would take a record-breaking run. Either way, 2019 should continue its winning streak stretching it to two weeks.

Five Feet Apart

Five Feet Apart
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: FiveFeetApartFilm.com
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: March 15th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for thematic elements, language and suggestive material.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Drama
Keywords: Romance, Medical and Hospitals, Terminal Illness, Coming of Age, Actors Making Their Directorial Debut
Directed By: Justin Baldoni
Written By: Mikki Daughtry, Tobias Iaconis
Starring: Cole Sprouse, Haley Lu Richardson
Production Budget: Unknown - estimated at $15 million to $25 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million

This is a Young Adult Adaptation and it is in the Dying Girl subgenre. YA adaptations as a whole are well off their box office peak and the Dying Girl subgenre is no exception. On the positive side, the production budget is likely quite low, so it won’t need to earn $50 million domestically to break even eventually.

Wonder Park

Wonder Park
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Paramount.com/Movies/Wonder-Park
Distributor: Paramount Pictures
Release Date: March 15th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG for some mild thematic elements and action.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Adventure
Keywords: Amusement Park, Animal Lead, Young Child Dealing with the Death of a Parent, Imaginary Friend, Talking Animals
Directed By: David Feiss
Written By: Josh Appelbaum, Andre Nemec, Robert Gordon, Josh Appelbaum, Andre Nemec
Starring: John Oliver, Ken Hudson Campbell, Brianna Denski, Norbert Leo Butz, Ken Jeong, Kenan Thompson, Mila Kunis
Production Budget: Reported at $100 million
Box Office Potential: $45 million

Brianna Denski provides the voice for June, a young girl who created an imaginary world called Wonder Park with her mother. However, when her mother died, she gave up this imaginary world. Then one day she finds its real and she’s the only one who can save it.

This film is made by Ilion Animation Studios, which previously made Planet 51, which was a box office miss. Sadly, while this film cost more to make and has a marginally bigger studio behind it, it is not expected to do much better at the box office.

Weekend of March 22nd, 2019

Us

At one time, this was going to be a busier week, with Hotel Mumbai and potentially one more wide release competing with Us for box office dollars. However, the Hotel Mumbai is now opening in limited release this week before trying to expand next week, while the other film is unconfirmed for its wide release. (It is probably opening nationwide, not truly wide). This leaves Us without any serious competition, at least not this year. It’s main competition is Pacific Rim: Uprising, which opened with $28.12 million this week last year. Us should have no trouble topping that. In fact, it could open with nearly as much as the four new films in the top ten earned last year given 2019 a legitimate three-week winning streak.

Us

Us
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: UsMovie.com/
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: March 22nd, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for violence/terror, and language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords: Family Secrets, Family Vacations, Doppelganger, African-American
Directed By: Jordan Peele
Written By: Jordan Peele
Starring: Elisabeth Moss, Lupita Nyong'o
Production Budget: Reported at $25 million
Box Office Potential: $140 million

Jordan Peele was almost exclusively known for comedy before he made Get Out. That film earned some of the best reviews of the year and became a surprise box office hit. Even if Us somehow earns better reviews it likely won’t do as well at the box office, because it won’t have the “That came out of nowhere. I’ve got to see it again.” factor. That said, it is nearly guaranteed to reach $100 million domestically and be one of the biggest hits of the month.

Weekend of March 29th, 2019

Dumbo

Dumbo practically has the weekend to itself. The only other film to talk about is Hotel Mumbai and even then I’m not 100% sure it is expanding truly wide. This weekend last year, Ready Player One dominated the box office chart more than doubling the next best film, Acrimony. There’s a real chance Dumbo will earn more than both of those films combined giving 2019 an easy win at the box office. If this happens, then we might actually become optimistic about 2019’s chances overall.

Dumbo

Dumbo
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Movies.Disney.com/Dumbo-2019
Distributor: Walt Disney
Release Date: March 29th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG for peril/action, some thematic elements, and brief mild language
Source: Remake
Genre: Adventure
Keywords: Live Action Cartoon, Circus, Animal Lead, Talking Animals, Remake
Directed By: Tim Burton
Written By: Ehren Kruger, Helen Aberson
Starring: Colin Farrell, Michael Keaton, Danny DeVito, Eva Green
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $100 million to $125 million
Box Office Potential: $150 million

The latest Live Action Remake from Disney. I’m burned out on these films and there are five more that already have release dates, three of which come out later this year. And that’s not to mention the others in pre-production. For a while, I wanted this pseudo-franchise to last long enough for The Chronicles of Prydain series to be adapted in an epic franchise, as the Disney adaptation of The Black Cauldron from the 1980s was of a huge missed opportunity. However, now I want The Chronicles of Prydain to become a TV series on Disney’s new streaming service, which could happen, and I have almost no interest in seeing the majority of the announced films. If the buzz is accurate, a lot of people feel the same way, as very few people are talking about this film. It could underperform compared to Tim Burton’s previous film, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children. I’m not that pessimistic, but I’m also not very bullish about the film’s chances.

Hotel Mumbai

Hotel Mumbai
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: BleeckerStreetMedia.com/HotelMumbai
Distributor: Bleecker Street
Release Date: March 22nd, 2019 (Limited Release)
Release Date: March 29th, 2019 (Expands Wide)
MPAA Rating: R for disturbing violence throughout, bloody images, and language.
Source: Based on Real Life Events
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords: India, 2000s, Terrorism, Muslims, Religious Extremism, Hotel, Hostage
Directed By: Anthony Maras
Written By: Anthony Maras, John Collee
Starring: Dev Patel, Armie Hammer, Nazanin Boniadi, Anupam Kher, Jason Isaacs
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 million
Box Office Potential: $10 million

This film is opening in limited release on the 22nd with a planned expansion this week. However, since it is being released by Bleecker Street, I don’t think it is expanding truly wide. The distributor’s biggest hit, Logan Lucky, earned less than $30 million at the box office. This film could earn half of that film’s box office and still become the distributor’s third biggest box office hit. There’s a chance it will stumble out of the gate on the 22nd and never expand even semi-wide. Even the high end expectations has it struggling to get to $20 million.

Filed under: Monthly Preview, Captain Marvel, Dumbo, Wonder Park, Us, Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral, Five Feet Apart, Hotel Mumbai, Greta, Madea, Marvel Cinematic Universe