Weekend Prediction: Can Shazam Continue its Streak or will New Releases Break Through?

April 19, 2019

The Curse of La Llorona

It’s Easter weekend and, while it is not a true long weekend, there are enough kids out of school to give the box office a boost. On the negative side, Avengers: Endgame comes out next weekend and no one wants to try to compete against that. Because of this, none of the three wide releases this weekend are in the top tier. The one with the biggest potential is The Curse of La Llorona, but it is also earning the worst reviews of the weekend. Breakthrough is the first film made by Fox to come out since the studio’s acquisition by Disney was finalized, so there’s some significance there. Finally there’s Penguins, a film I thought would be a hit, but isn’t garnering much attention. This is not a strong contingent of new releases and Shazam could remain on top. This weekend last year wasn’t Easter weekend, so maybe that will give 2019 the edge. I don’t think 2019 will win in the year-over-year competition, but hopefully it will at least be close.

Shazam has a real shot at remaining in first place, in part due to strong holds, but also because the competition is rather weak. The film reached $100 million domestically on Wednesday and it should benefit the most from the Easter holiday. In fact, it should remain in top spot with between $16 million and $17 million over the weekend. This would keep it on pace for $150 million domestically, if it weren’t for Avengers: Endgame.

The Curse of La Llorona is the biggest release of the week, being a (small) part of The Conjuring universe. Annabelle: Creation had the slowest opening in the franchise so far at $35 million; however, if the tracking is right, then this film will struggle to reach half that level. The reviews are not going to help, not with a Tomatometer Score of just 33% positive. It still has a shot at first place with just over $17 million, but second place with just under $16 million is more likely.

Breakthrough got off to a better-than-expected start on Wednesday, earning second place with $1.89 million. Additionally, its reviews are good, and its CinemaScore is a solid A, so it should have better than average legs. It is also a faith-based film opening on Easter weekend and that has to be a plus. If its legs are as long as its potential, then it could squeak into first place. Even opening in third place with $15 million over the three-day weekend would still be a great start for this type of film.

Little should land in fourth place with just over $8 million. It is a family film, so it should have better than average legs, even with its mixed reviews. That said, families do have choices this weekend, so it will still come close to a 50% decline during its second weekend of release.

Dumbo could remain in fifth place this weekend, or Captain Marvel could climb a spot to overtake it. Captain Marvel has had better legs, but I think it will settle for sixth place in a very close race with both films earning about $6 million.

I really thought Penguins would be a hit compared to most documentaries, especially with its reviews. However, the film only managed $500,000 on Wednesday. Even with an A from CinemaScore, that’s a terrible start. It was expected to earn a spot in the top five over the three-day weekend, but I don’t see that happening now. In fact, it might not top $5 million over five days.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Shazam!, Captain Marvel, Dumbo, The Curse of La Llorona, Penguins, Little, Breakthrough, The Conjuring