Weekend Predictions: Once Upon a Time at the Box Office
July 25, 2019
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood is Quentin Tarantino’s first film in four years and it is generating a ton of buzz. However, it is going up against The Lion King, which set records last weekend and has a slim chance at $100 million this weekend. Fortunately, the two films don’t share much of their respective target audiences, so they shouldn’t cannibalize each other at the box office too much. As a result, 2019 should easily beat the same weekend last year in the year-over-year competition. It is too soon to get excited about a potential comeback, but any victory is worth celebrating when you are this far behind.
The Lion King opened with $191.77 million last weekend and it is a family film with an A from CinemaScore, so it should have good legs going forward. On the other hand, while it is not a true sequel, it has sequel-like hype and that will likely hurt its legs. I think it will have a slightly worse hold than Toy Story 4 had, but that will still give it over $90 million during the weekend and an easy first place win.
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood is Quentin Tarantino’s first film since The Hateful Eight. That film missed expectations at the box office, but I don’t think that’s going to have a huge impact on this film’s box office chances. This film’s buzz is much louder than the previous film’s buzz was, while this film’s reviews are also better. Tracking has the film earning between $30 million and $50 million during its opening weekend. The buzz suggest the higher end is more likely, but I fear the buzz is deceptive here, as the movie is about Hollywood and that tends to inflate the buzz. I’m going with $38 million, which would still be a fantastic start and in a virtual tie with Inglourious Basterds for the best opening in the writer / director’s career.
Spider-Man: Far From Home should be next with $13 million. It won’t reach $350 million over the weekend, but it will get there soon. Importantly, it will overtake Homecoming domestically, meaning it is an undisputed improvement from the first film at the box office and yet another financial smash hit for the M.C.U.
Toy Story 4 should earn another $10 million over the weekend as it moves closer to $400 million domestically and it still has a shot at $1 billion worldwide.
Crawl will round out the top five with just over $3 million over the weekend for a total of just over $30 million after three-weeks of release.
- Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood Comparisons
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Toy Story 4, Spider-Man: Far From Home, The Lion King, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Crawl, Marvel Cinematic Universe, Quentin Tarantino