2019 Preview: August

August 1, 2019

Hobbs and Shaw

July bounced back from June with both Spider-Man: Far from Home and The Lion King getting to $1 billion worldwide. Domestically, we are still behind 2018’s pace by more than $400 million, but that’s a substantial improvement over where we were at the start of the month. August should continue this winning streak, at least initially. Hobbs and Shaw could open with close to $100 million, but the only other film opening this month that has a real shot at $100 million in total is Dora and the Lost City of Gold. Last August, both Crazy Rich Asians and The Meg topped $100 million, while Christopher Robin came within 1% of that milestone. This August might be better at the very top, but I don’t think the top three this month will top the top three last month. Maybe if we get a surprise hit, it will, but I’m not willing to bet on that. On the other hand, unless something dramatic happens, 2019 should at least come close to matching last year’s pace and that’s better than most months have done this year.

Weekend of August 2nd, 2019

Hobbs and Shaw

The month starts with Hobbs and Shaw as the lone wide release. (Dora and the Lost City of Gold was going to open this week, but Paramount wisely decided to move the film back a week to avoid the competition.) Because it has the weekend to itself, it should get off to a fast start, but not as fast as the franchise or August records. With a little luck, it could debut in second place on both of those charts. Meanwhile, this weekend last year saw the debut of Christopher Robin, while Mission: Impossible - Fallout led the way at the box office. Hobbs and Shaw should top those two films; in fact, it could earn more than the top five combined earned last year.

Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw

Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: HobbsAndShaw.com
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: August 2nd, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for prolonged sequences of action and violence, suggestive material and some strong language.
Source: Spin-Off
Genre: Action
Keywords: Enemies Forced to Work Together, Car Chase, Car Accident, Super Soldiers, Shootout, IMAX: DMR, London, MI6, Dysfunctional Family, Environment, Rogue Agent
Directed By: David Leitch
Written By: Chris Morgan, Drew Pearce, Chris Morgan
Starring: Dwayne Johnson, Jason Statham, Idris Elba, Vanessa Kirby, Eiza González
Production Budget: Reported at $200 million
Box Office Potential: $225 million

Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw is the first spin-off in the Fast and the Furious franchise and if it does as well as some think, then the main franchise might not continue in any recognizable form. That said, these films tend to perform much better at the international box office than the domestic one, so even if it fails to match its $200 million production budget here, it will likely still be wildly profitable internationally. Earning less than $200 million is a real possibility, but it could also open with $100 million and finish with more than $250 million domestically. There’s not a lot of direct competition for the rest of the month, so that could help its trailing legs. I’m not that bullish, but $225 million domestically is still a great run for an August release and on par with The Fate of the Furious.

Last Minute Update: The reviews are in and they are good, but not great. Fortunately for me, I was expecting a Tomatometer Score in the low 70s, so there’s no need to change my prediction.

Weekend of August 9th, 2019

Dora and the Lost City of Gold

Every year at this time, box office watchers play a game of “Guess when summer ends.” Summer technically ends after Labor Day, but in reality, it usually ends earlier in the month. This year, you could argue it ends this week. There are five films opening wide, led by Dora and the Lost City of Gold. That film is the only film opening this week that is expected to earn more than $50 million; in fact, it has a real shot at $100 million. The Kitchen and Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark could do well as counter-programming, but they could also open with less than $10 million and disappear before finding an audience in theaters. Meanwhile, I have my doubts that The Art of Racing in the Rain and Brian Banks will open truly wide and both of them could miss the top five. This weekend last year, The Meg was a surprise hit opening with $45 million. There’s almost no chance any of the new releases this week will match that. However, Hobbs and Shaw should help 2019 remain competitive in the year-over-year competition.

The Art of Racing in the Rain

The Art of Racing in the Rain
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: FoxMovies.com/Movies/The-Art-of-Racing-in-the-Rain/
Distributor: 20th Century Fox
Release Date: August 9th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG for thematic material.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Drama
Keywords: Animal Lead, Auto Racing, Talking Animals, Reincarnation, Voiceover/Narration
Directed By: Simon Curtis
Written By: Mark Bomback, Garth Stein
Starring: Milo Ventimiglia, Amanda Seyfried, Kevin Costner
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimate at between $10 million and $20 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million

The latest film that gives us the inner thoughts of a dog. I’m not sure why these films are so popular with studios right now. Granted A Dog’s Purpose did make $200 million worldwide, so I can see why it got a sequel, but other studios should have really waited to see if that was a fluke, before making so many other films. There have been two similar films released this year alone and combined they didn’t make $200 million worldwide. This one might not make enough for the three films to earn $200 million worldwide.

Brian Banks

Brian Banks
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Facebook.com/BrianBanksMovie
Distributor: Bleecker Street
Release Date: August 9th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for thematic content and related images, and for language.
Source: Based on Real Life Events
Genre: Drama
Keywords: Football, High School Sports, Wrongfully Convicted, Sex Crimes, African-American
Directed By: Tom Shadyac
Written By: Doug Atchison
Starring: Aldis Hodge
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $10 million
Box Office Potential: $15 million

This film is being released by Bleecker Street and their films rarely get wide releases and even when they do, they almost never reach $20 million. Additionally, this film has a weak release date and far too much competition, so I think it will get lost in the crowd.

Dora and the Lost City of Gold

Dora and the Lost City of Gold
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Tickets.Dora.movie
Distributor: Paramount Pictures
Release Date: August 9th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG for action and some impolite humor.
Source: Based on TV
Genre: Adventure
Keywords: Explorer, Kidnap, High School, Jungle, Mercenaries, Live Action Cartoon, Treasure Hunters
Directed By: James Bobin
Written By: Tom Wheeler, Nicholas Stoller, Danielle Sanchez-Witzel, Chris Gifford, Valerie Walsh Valdes, Eric Weiner
Starring: Isabela Moner
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at between $50 million and $60 million
Box Office Potential: $90 million

If this movie is a huge hit, then Paramount should send a thank you note to Ariel Winter and College Humor, because without their take on this idea, I don’t think this film would have been made. I’m glad it was made, because it looks surprisingly good. On the other hand, live action family films are a bit of a gamble with many of them missing expectations, even if they earn good reviews. I do think this film will find an audience in theaters, it even has a shot at $100 million, but there is also a chance it will barely top $50 million domestically.

Last Minute Update: The early reviews are trickling in and they are mixed. It seems the trailer made the movie look like it was aimed at an older audience, when the movie itself is a sanitized kids adventure movie. It should still be a hit with its target audience, but it won’t have the crossover appeal to reach $100 million, so I’m dropping my prediction from $90 million to $75 million.

The Kitchen

The Kitchen
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: TheKitchenMovie.net
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: August 9th, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for violence, language throughout and some sexual content
Source: Based on Comic/Graphic Novel
Genre: Drama
Keywords: Mafia, 1970s, New York City, Organized Crime, Crime Caper, Woman in a Male Dominated Profession
Directed By: Andrea Berloff
Written By: Andrea Berloff, Ollie Masters
Starring: Melissa McCarthy, Tiffany Haddish, Elisabeth Moss
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at between $20 million and $30 million
Box Office Potential: $45 million

This is the directorial debut for Andrea Berloff, who previously earned an Oscar nomination for co-writing Straight Outta Compton. This film is about three women, played by Melissa McCarthy, Tiffany Haddish, and Elisabeth Moss, whose husbands are part of the Irish Mafia until they were arrested. So these three ladies decide to take over their husbands’ jobs and prove to be very capable.

This could be a good movie, but given its release date, I fear it is a good idea marred by weak execution. We will have to wait until the reviews start to show up, before we can know for sure. On the positive side, the buzz is louder than most of the films opening this weekend, so that should help it stand out against the crowd.

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: ScaryStoriesToTellInTheDark.com
Distributor: CBS Films
Release Date: August 9th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for terror/violence, disturbing images, thematic elements, language including racial epithets, and brief sexual references.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Horror
Keywords: 1960s, Fiction / Reality Crossover, Writing and Writers, Kids Horror, Halloween
Directed By: Andre Ovredal
Written By: Guillermo del Toro, Dan Hageman, Kevin Hageman, Patrick Melton, Marcus Dunstan, Alvin Schwartz
Starring: Zoe Margaret Colletti, Michael Garza, Austin Abrams, Gabriel Rush, Austin Zajur, Natalie Ganzhorn, Dean Norris, Gil Bellows, Lorraine Toussaint, Javier Botet
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at between $10 million and $20 million
Box Office Potential: $40 million

This is a horror film based on a series of short stories aimed at kids. When I first heard these stories would be adapted, I assumed the film would be a horror anthology, but instead the stories are part of the movie and when some kids read them, the horror stories come alive. The books are aimed at kids, but I think the movie itself is aimed at adults. Maybe I’m wrong, but this would mean the advertising campaign isn’t making its target audience clear, which isn’t a good sign either. I think it will be the second fastest opening new release of the weekend, but as a horror movie, it will fall much faster than The Kitchen will, leaving it in third place in the end.

Weekend of August 16th, 2019

The Angry Birds Movie 2

There are five films opening wide this week, which is at least two too many. There’s almost no chance all five films will find an audience; in fact, there’s a better chance none of the five films top $50 million domestically. If any film is going to do well at the box office, it’s The Angry Birds Movie 2. Another sequel, 47 Meters Down: Uncaged should at least be a profitable release, even if it doesn’t get to $50 million. Good Boys is the wildcard. It is, essentially, a teenage sex comedy starring middle school kids. This might be a surprise hit, or a complete disaster. Finally there’s Blinded By the Light and Where’d You Go, Bernadette?, two films that I think will slip between the cracks. This weekend last year was led by Crazy Rich Asians, which didn’t get off to a monster start, but relied on incredible legs to become a major hit.

47 Meters Down: Uncaged

47 Meters Down: Uncaged
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: 47MetersDownUncagedMovie.com
Distributor: Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
Release Date: August 16th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for creature related violence and terror, some bloody images and brief rude gestures.
Source: Based on Movie
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords: Brazil, Tourists In Trouble, Underwater, Animals Gone Bad
Directed By: Johannes Roberts
Written By: Johannes Roberts, Ernest Riera
Starring: John Corbett
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $5 million to $10 million
Box Office Potential: $40 million

The first film, 47 Meters Down cost about $5 million to make and earned close to ten times that domestically. It only managed mixed reviews and a C from CinemaScore, which is fine for a horror film like this. This suggests Uncaged will have a similar box office run. It should start faster, but not have as long legs, leaving it a little behind its predecessor’s final tally. At least that’s my prediction. There’s also a chance the number of horror films released so far this summer really hurts this film’s box office chances and it finishes with under $30 million domestically. That said, it likely cost so little to make that this would still be enough to break even during its home market run.

The Angry Birds Movie 2

The Angry Birds Movie 2
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Sites.SonyPictures.com/AngryBirds/
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: August 14th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG for rude humor and action.
Source: Based on Game
Genre: Adventure
Keywords: Talking Animals, Animal Lead, War, Ensemble, Enemies Forced to Work Together, 3-D, 3-D - Shot in 3-D
Directed By: Thurop Van Orman
Written By: John Rice, Peter Ackerman, Eyal Podell, Jonathon E. Stewart
Starring: Jason Sudeikis, Josh Gad, Danny McBride, Bill Hader, Peter Dinklage, Rachel Bloom, Awkwafina, Sterling K. Brown
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $70 million to $90 million
Box Office Potential: $55 million

The original movie earned more than triple what it cost to make at the worldwide box office, so it should come as no surprise that it got a sequel. However, there’s little hope this film will match its predecessor at the box office, not with weak reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore. Anything below an A minus is a terrible result for a family film. Additionally, there will be a lot of bigger family films in theaters this week, including Dora and the Lost City of Gold, which opens the week before. On the positive side, it is still the biggest new release of the week and that should help it become a marginally profitable film in the long run.

Blinded by the Light

Blinded by the Light
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: BlindedByTheLight-Movie.net
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: August 14th, 2019
MPAA Rating:
Source: Based on Real Life Events
Genre: Drama
Keywords: 1980s, Sundance Film Festival 2019, England, Immigration, Dysfunctional Family, Bigotry, Poet, Indians
Directed By: Gurinder Chadha
Written By: Sarfraz Manzoor, Gurinder Chadha, Paul Mayeda Berges, Sarfraz Manzoor
Starring: Viveik Kalra
Production Budget: Reported at $15 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million

This film is about a teenager from Pakistan living in London who has trouble connecting with both his new home and his demanding father. That is until he hears the music of Bruce Springsteen and finds his own voice. This movie’s early reviews are excellent, but it reminds me a bit too much of Yesterday and I fear it won’t be able to stand out in a crowded week.

Good Boys

Good Boys
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: GoodBoysMovie.com
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: August 16th, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for strong crude sexual content, drug and alcohol material, and language throughout - all involving tweens.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Comedy
Keywords: Skipping School, Narcotics, Parties Gone Wild
Directed By: Gene Stupnitsky
Written By: Lee Eisenberg, Gene Stupnitsky
Starring: Jacob Tremblay, Keith L. Williams, Brady Noon
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $10 million to $20 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million

Good Boys is a Teenage Sex Comedy, except its protagonists are three middle-school boys and they are talking about kissing and not sex. The film’s early reviews are good and I’ve seen a lot of ads for the film online, so clearly Universal has some faith in the movie. On the other hand, the reviews are merely good and not great, while I’m not sure who the target audience for this film is. If it does find a receptive audience, then it could double my prediction above. Or it could open with less than $10 million and disappear by the end of the month.

Where’d You Go Bernadette

Where’d You Go Bernadette
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Bernadette.film
Distributor: United Artists
Release Date: August 16th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for some strong language and drug material.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Comedy
Keywords: Missing Person, Seattle, Road Trip, Dysfunctional Family, Infidelity, Surprise Twist, Architecture
Directed By: Richard Linklater
Written By: Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber, Richard Linklater, Holly Gent Palmo, Vincent Palmo Jr., Maria Semple
Starring: Cate Blanchett
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at between $10 million and $20 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million

This film is being released by United Artists, which is a label that has died and been revived more than a couple of times. This latest attempt hasn’t gone great and I fear this film won’t reverse that trend. The buzz is much too quiet, so even if the reviews are good, it likely won’t escape the crowded box office.

Weekend of August 23rd, 2019

Ready or Not

The fourth weekend of the month is much more manageable in terms of the number of wide releases. Unfortunately, none of the three wide releases are expected to become even midlevel hits. Angel Has Fallen is the third film in the “Has Fallen” franchise and it will likely continue the decline, at least domestically. Overcomer is a faith-based film and these films have a mixed record at the box office. Finally there’s Ready or Not, the third horror film released in three weeks. The market can’t handle that many horror films in a row, especially not with It: Chapter Two looming on the horizon. This weekend last year, Crazy Rich Asians fell just 6% earning almost $25 million during its second weekend of release. There’s no way that will happen this year and 2019 looks like it will lose in the year-over-year competition.

Angel Has Fallen

Angel Has Fallen
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: AngelHasFallen.movie/
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: August 23rd, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for violence and language throughout.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords: Secret Service Agent, Political, Political Assassination, Framed, Fugitive / On the Run, Sequel With Lead Character Recast
Directed By: Ric Roman Waugh
Written By: Creighton Rothenberger, Katrin Benedikt, Robert Mark Kamen, Matt Cook, Creighton Rothenberger, Katrin Benedikt
Starring: Gerard Butler, Morgan Freeman
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $60 million to $80 million
Box Office Potential: $45 million

The “Has Fallen” franchise feels very American, but the previous film did much better internationally than at the domestic box office. I think Angel Has Fallen will continue this trend, including falling even further at the domestic box office. However, as long as the production budget isn’t the biggest in the franchise, it should still break even some time during its home market run.

Overcomer

Overcomer
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: OvercomerMovie.com
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: August 23rd, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG for some thematic elements.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Drama
Keywords: Family Affair, Basketball, High School, High School Sports, Fired, Economic Crash
Directed By: Alex Kendrick
Written By: Alex Kendrick, Stephen Kendrick
Starring: Alex Kendrick, Priscilla Shirer, Aryn Wright-Thompson, Shari Rigby
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $5 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million

The Kendrick brothers, Alex and Stephen, have had a lot of success making faith-based films. However, this genre as a whole has had a lot more misses than hits recently and they are an incredibly risky venture at the box office. This film should still be massively profitable, because it likely cost $5 million or less to make, but it won’t be one of the biggest releases of the month.

Ready or Not

Ready or Not
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: https://FoxSearchlight.com/ReadyOrNot/
Distributor: Fox Searchlight
Release Date: August 21st, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for violence, bloody images, language throughout, and some drug use.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Black Comedy
Keywords: Dysfunctional Family, Romance
Directed By: Tyler Gillett, Matt Bettinelli-Olpin
Written By: Guy Busick, Ryan Murphy
Starring: Samara Weaving, Adam Brody, Mark O'Brien, Henry Czerny, Andie MacDowell, Melanie Scrofano, Kristian Bruun, Elyse Levesque, Nicky Guadagni, John Ralston, Liam MacDonald, Ethan Tavares
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $10 million or less
Box Office Potential: $25 million

This is the third horror film to come out in three weeks. If it were the first of this group, then I would be a lot more bullish about the film’s box office chances. As it is, fans of the genre will either be burnt out by the box office selections, or waiting impatiently for It: Chapter Two to come out. Either way, they will likely ignore this one, unless its reviews are fantastic. The first three reviews on Rotten Tomatoes are positive, so that’s something to be hopeful about.

Weekend of August 30th, 2019

Playmobil

The final weekend of the month is also Labor Day long weekend, the worst long weekend of the year when it comes to the box office. There appears to be only one true wide release of the week, Playmobil. Don’t Let Go might get a wide release, but I think it will be semi-wide at most. This weekend last year was led again by Crazy Rich Asians and it will again top anything coming out this year leading to yet another loss by 2019 in the year-over-year competition.

PLAYMOBIL

PLAYMOBIL
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Movie.Playmobil.com
Distributor: Open Road
Release Date: August 30th, 2019
MPAA Rating:
Source: Based on Toy
Genre: Adventure
Keywords: Secret Agent, Kidnap, Living Toys, Missing Person, Rescue
Directed By: Lino Disalvo
Written By: Greg Erb, Jason Oremland, Blaise Hemingway, Lino Disalvo
Starring: Gabriel Bateman, Anya Taylor-Joy
Production Budget: Reported at $75 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million

This movie just looks like a LEGO Movie rip-off. I know that’s not fair, but that’s likely what the preception will be when it finally comes out. Additionally, it is the third family film to be released in August and it is coming out when most families will be getting ready for Back to School and will be too busy to see a movie. Finally, its early reviews don’t make its outlook look any brighter.

Filed under: Monthly Preview, Where’d You Go Bernadette, PLAYMOBIL, Spider-Man: Far From Home, The Angry Birds Movie 2, Good Boys, Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw, 47 Meters Down: Uncaged, Dora and the Lost City of Gold, The Kitchen, Angel Has Fallen, The Art of Racing in the Rain, Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, Overcomer, Brian Banks, Ready or Not, Blinded by the Light, Don’t Let Go, Fast and the Furious, Has Fallen, Angry Birds, Ariel Winter