Weekend Predictions: Will the Box Office get Angry?
August 15, 2019
Like last weekend, there are five wide releases coming out this weekend, and again, this is just too many. I can’t imagine all of them will find an audience. In fact, I would be less surprised if none of them really found an audience and Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw remained in first place, than if all of them found an audience. The Angry Birds Movie 2 is the biggest of the new releases, but it debuted on Tuesday, so its demand will be deflated by the weekend. Good Boys has deceptively good reviews, but the buzz isn’t where it should be. 47 Meters Down: Uncaged is a horror film entering a too-crowded market. Meanwhile, both Blinded By the Light and Where’d You Go, Bernadette? will be lucky to avoid the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Crazy Rich Asians opened. It wasn’t a monster hit out of the gate, but it was a bigger hit than anything opening this weekend.
I mentioned above that Good Boys is earning deceptively good reviews. That wasn’t a compliment. Its Tomatometer Score is 80% positive, which is amazing for this time of year, but the average score given to it by the critics is just 6.5 out of 10. As I’ve said many times in the past, this means while most critics like it, very few love it. Additionally, the film is being sold as a teenage sex comedy of sorts, but with middle school kids and this might be a tough sell for some people. The lack of buzz will also hurt. That said, the competition this week is really weak, so it has a real shot at first place, even if it opens with just $13 million.
Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw remained first place over the week and it looks like it could capture first place over the weekend as well. It will be a very close race, but I think Hobbs and Shaw will earn second place with just over $12 million over the weekend.
The Angry Birds Movie opened on Tuesday earning fifth place with $2.60 million. It rose to fourth place on Wednesday with $1.71 million and I think it will rise to third place over the weekend. However, it won’t be a major hit for a couple of reasons. Firstly, while its reviews are 72% positive, its average score is just 5.6 out of 10. That’s not, “Most critics like it, but few love it.” That’s “Most critics think it is fine. It’s just okay. Whatever. It’s a kids movie.” Additionally, since the film came out on Tuesday, it already has a CinemaScore and it’s just a B plus. That’s terrible for a family film. It should come within striking distance of first place with about $12 million. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if it earned first place on the daily chart at least one day this weekend, even if it fails to grab top spot over the full three days.
The Lion King should be very close behind with just under $12 million over the weekend leaving it just days away from $500 million domestically.
This leaves 47 Meters Down: Uncaged in fifth place. The film’s reviews are mixed, which would normally be fine for a horror film. However, there have been too many horror films released this summer and I think the market is over-saturated as a result. I don’t think it is going to bomb, but I think it will only manage just over $11 million during its opening weekend. This is more than it cost to make. In fact, it is more than twice what it cost to make.
Where’s You Go, Bernadette is typical of a late August dump. On paper, it looks like a safe bet. However, its reviews show that something went wrong along the way. It isn’t a disaster, but its target audience are more likely to read and trust reviews, so its reviews will be a much bigger liability than 47 Meters Down: Uncaged’s reviews will be, for example. This will likely leave it under the Mendoza Line with just over $5 million over the weekend.
The final wide release of the week is Blinded By the Light, which is a nostalgia-fueled music-inspired film, much like Yesterday, only it focuses on the music of Bruce Springsteen. The reviews are amazing, but its buzz is not. It is the smallest of the five films opening this week and I fear it will fall between the cracks with just under $5 million. It could find a more receptive audience on the home market and become a hit on streaming services for years to come.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Where’d You Go Bernadette, The Lion King, The Angry Birds Movie 2, Good Boys, Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw, 47 Meters Down: Uncaged, Yesterday, Blinded by the Light