Friday Estimates: Midway is the High Point of the Weekend
November 9, 2019
Midway made a surprisingly strong debut to earn first place on Friday with an estimated $6.34 million. Its reviews have improved and are currently 40% positive. Granted, this isn’t great, or even merely good, but it is also not so bad that it will be a major drag at the box office. Furthermore, the film scored a solid A-rating from CinemaScore, indicating its target audience loved the movie, especially compared to critics. Add in a more mature target audience and the film should have solid legs, helping it earn close to $18 million during its opening weekend. Granted, the film cost $50 million to make, so it will still need help internationally and on the home market to break even after a start like this, but this is still much better than most people were expecting.
On the other hand, it looks like Doctor Sleep is going to lose money. It only managed $5.2 million on Friday, putting it on pace for about $13 million over the weekend. The film had the best reviews of the weekend and a B plus from CinemaScore, which is amazing for a horror film. On the other hand, we really should have seen this coming. The film hasn’t done well internationally and it missed expectations during previews, earning just $1.5 million. Worse still, it turns out that was from two days of previews. Had Warner Bros. made that clear, I would have been freaking out yesterday. That said, I understand why they didn’t want people to think that the film was bombing.
Last Christmas managed $4.06 million during its opening Friday, which is also weaker than anticipated. Mixed reviews and a B minus from CinemaScore are not going to help the film’s legs and it will likely struggle to get past $12 million during its opening weekend. On the other hand, the film only cost $30 million to make, so this isn’t a disaster. If it can find a receptive audience and / or become a longterm hit on the home market, then it could break even eventually. As a Christmas movie, it could become a holiday staple on cable for years to come.
Playing with Fire is one of the few positive surprises in the top five, opening with an estimated $3.55 million on Friday, including $500,000 during its previews. That puts it on pace for $11 million during its opening weekend. This is not a good start, but it is better than most were expecting. It is a family film, so it should have longer-than-average legs, but its also has the worst reviews of the weekend and only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, which is well below the average family film.
Terminator: Dark Fate fell 73% from its opening Friday to just $2.8 million this Friday. Because it is a holdover, it will bounce back over the rest of the weekend, but it will still likely earn less than $10 million during its sophomore stint. This will be the end of the Terminator franchise, potentially for a long time.
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Filed under: Friday Estimates, Terminator: Dark Fate, Midway, Doctor Sleep, Last Christmas, Playing with Fire, Terminator