Weekend estimates: Godzilla vs. Kong leads again in spite of steep decline

April 18, 2021

Godzilla vs. Kong

Another slightly disappointing result for Godzilla vs. Kong makes this a weekend where the theatrical market is treading water again. The top six will generate 12% less revenue than our model predicted, which is safely within its margin of error, and doesn’t really indicate any new weakness. But their combined box office will be 32% down from last weekend thanks to the lack of major new releases.



Note that the numbers in italics above are the model’s revised predictions based on actual theater counts (Warner Bros. isn’t releasing counts ahead of the weekend at the moment). Since Godzilla played in fewer theaters than expected, its expected box office came down slightly. Even with that factored in, it had a disappointing third weekend, falling 44% from last time. It has passed $80 million at the domestic box office now though, and is nearing $400 million worldwide, so this is probably more a case of the film being front-loaded, rather than having particular weakness.

The high point of the weekend is Nobody’s $2.52 million, which is down just 5% from last weekend and 21% ahead of our prediction. It came out on PVOD on Friday, and the additional marketing and attention might have helped it at the box office. The other returning films performed at about what the model expected, meaning the market didn’t really improve much this weekend in spite of additional theater openings (particularly in the Regal theater chain).

All of this makes the release of Mortal Kombat next weekend a big moment for the industry. While it’s obviously in many ways aimed at a niche audience (albeit a big niche!), if it doesn’t open over $10 million then the strength of the recovery at the box office will come into question, which could lead to more reshuffling of release schedules. The lead time for Summer releases is beginning to get short, so another good weekend would really help calm the fears of studio executives and keep the recovery on track.

- Weekend studio estimates

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Godzilla vs. Kong, Nobody, Mortal Kombat