Weekend estimates: Demon Slayer projected to top the chart, but joins Mortal Kombat in a steep second-week decline

May 2, 2021

Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train

Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugan Train and Mortal Kombat are both experiencing precipitous declines at the box office this weekend after openings that significantly outperformed expectations. FUNimation is claiming a win for the weekend with a projected $6.421 million for Demon Slayer, but Mortal Kombat is expected to bring in $6.235 million, according to Warner Bros.. That’s a rounding error away, and the performance of each film today will determine who comes out on top when the final numbers are tallied.



Both films fell well below our model’s predictions, and their declines are the steepest for wide releases since theaters started reopening. The last film to fall more was The Photograph, which plummeted 77% the weekend after Valentine’s Day last year at a time when the market was already contracting as the extent of the pandemic was becoming apparent. The last film that’s really comparable to these two that fell as much was Dark Phoenix, which fell 72% in its second weekend back in June, 2019.

Given that we aren’t experiencing any significant reversals in COVID-19 infection rates here in the US and Canada, the decline this weekend probably can’t be directly attributed to the state of the pandemic. The awful situation in India might be playing a part by reminding people how things can get is the disease spreads out of control, but a bigger factor is almost certainly that these two films brought out a very enthusiastic core fanbase on opening weekend and haven’t significantly lured in a wider audience this time around.

The overall results for the weekend are actually more of a concern to me than the declines for Demon Slayer and Mortal Kombat. For example, Separation’s opening weekend is projected at $1.831 million compared to our model’s predicted $1.9 million. That’s only a 4% difference, which counts as a win for the model, but it’s a result that suggests the market isn’t growing exponentially at the moment. Godzilla vs. Kong continues to decline steeply too, with $2.74 million taking it to a total of $90 million to date. The only film in the top six to outperform the model’s expectations is Raya and the Last Dragon with $1.335 million this weekend for a total to date of $41.6 million.

Once all the numbers are crunched, the model’s estimate of the proportion of regular moviegoers currently attending theaters moves down a notch this weekend from 37% to 36%.

After last weekend’s (relative) blockbuster numbers, moviegoers seem to be taking a breather this time around. The release of Here Today and Wrath of Man should see the market returning to growth next weekend, but we still have a long way to go.

- Weekend studio estimates

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Godzilla vs. Kong, Separation, Raya and the Last Dragon, Mortal Kombat, Here Today, Wrath of Man, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba—The Movie: Mugen Train (劇場版「鬼滅の刃」 無限列車編)