Weekend predictions: Uncharted debut confirms Tom Holland as the man of the moment

February 18, 2022

Uncharted

If Thursday’s preview numbers for Uncharted are anything to go by, Tom Holland is just about the biggest star in the movie business right now. After nine weeks of near-total domination at the box office for Spider-Man: No Way Home, Holland’s new film looks set for an easy win over Presidents Day weekend, with a very good shot of posting the biggest weekend of 2022 so far.

Here’s what our model thinks of Uncharted’s performance for the weekend, first based on its video-game-adventure-adaptation pedigree and creative talent, and second on its Thursday preview numbers…







Prior to getting the preview report, our model actually had relatively modest expectations for Uncharted. Video-game adaptations have an inconsistent record at the box office, tending to make either something in the mid-$20-millions on opening weekend, or breaking out to around $50 million. The stars and director of Uncharted have a track record of opening in the $20-million to $35-million range. Add that up, and the model says we should have expected a weekend around $25 million under normal circumstances, and $16 million or so given the current state of the market.

Thursday’s previews blow that number away and point to something in the mid to high $40-millions. That would be a fantastic result, and perhaps a shade optimistic. Our final weekend prediction is $39.4 million, based on the weighted average of the fundamentals and the previews predictions.

Two other films are vying to take some of the attention away from Uncharted, and Dog might have a shot at picking up some business on another holiday weekend.





We don’t have preview numbers for Dog, so our fundamentals prediction will have to suffice. This is a movie that’s hard to predict given its combination of a serious subject matter (a trip to a funeral), and a buddy-comedy set up. The word is that Dog might do somewhat better than our prediction.





Finally, The Cursed is going for some counter-programming from 1,750 theaters. That kind of theater count rarely produces box office magic, but something in the range of $2 million seems possible for this one.





Overall, the weekend looks like it will be dominated by Uncharted, which will single-handedly boost the total box office for all films. A combined weekend box office of $72 million would be the best of the year so far, or the second-best if you consider the weekend of December 31-January 2 to be part of 2022. Either way, it looks like we have another film that’ll do close to the business we would have expected pre-pandemic. That’s a very encouraging sign.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Uncharted, The Cursed, Dog, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Tom Holland