Weekend predictions: Barbarian the favorite going into brutally slow weekend

September 9, 2022

Barbarian

The weekend after Labor Day is traditionally the slowest one of the year at the box office. But, to get the good news out of the way, there’s a good chance that won’t be the case this year, with the weekend of January 28 looking like it will hold on to that crown. The fact we’ll probably top the $34.8 million earned at the box office on the last weekend of January is down to three new wide releases, albeit ones that probably won’t set records at the box office.

First up is Barbarian, a horror movie from 20th Century Studios.

Here’s what our model thought of its chances before we had Thursday preview numbers…

It’s now been long enough since theaters started reopening that all the comps for Barbarian come from the post-pandemic era. This kind of wide-but-not-ultra-wide-release horror movie generally does between about $3 million and $10 million on opening weekend, and the model thinks $6 million would be a par score pre-pandemic. Given Barbarian is playing in slightly more theaters than normal, but that our pandemic adjustment is still down at 86%, our core model predicts on opening of around $5.5 million. Audience tracking is stronger though, and that gives it quite a healthy bump, to a prediction of $7.3 million.

The preview numbers says that the audience tracking adjustment was probably about right…

$850,000 in previews points to a weekend close to $8 million for Barbarian. Our model uses a weighted average of the two predictions, and expects the final weekend number to land around $7.8 million.

Brahmastra Part 1: Shiva is an attempt to launch what might be loosely described as a Bollywood Super Hero Cinematic Universe. It’s one of the most expensive Indian films ever made, and has the potential to be one of the highest earners, although the US will be far from its biggest market.

Bollywood films have steadily grown their earnings in North America over the past decade or so, but comps are still a little hard to find. Brahmastra is the fifth such film to open in between 400 and 1,600 theaters this year though, and I’ve used the previous four as the comps. They point towards a weekend around $2.9 million, and enthusiastic audience tracking suggests the film could go higher than that.

The $9.5-million opening of RRR suggests that Brahmastra has a shot at winning the weekend, but it was it was the second-highest-earning film in theaters on Thursday, with $700,000 putting it behind Barbarian. Given that it’ll be quite front loaded, it doesn’t look likely to top the chart, but a top five finish is definitely in its sights.

The final wide release this weekend is Medieval, a release from The Avenue Entertainment. The distributor is still finding its feet, and Medieval doesn’t look likely to make much of a splash at the box office, in spite of a high octane cast. The model says $1.8 million is on the cards, but I think the distributor should be very, very happy if the film tops a million dollars on opening weekend.

Here’s what our model thinks the top 10 as a whole will look like…

Honestly, with so many movies earning between $3.5 million and $5.8 million last weekend, and the new releases unlikely to do anything spectacular, the final order of the top 10 is something of a crap shoot. The model thinks Top Gun: Maverick and Spider-Man: No Way Home will drop steeply from their long weekend numbers. That makes Bullet Train the favorite for second place, but the films from 2 to 9 could end up in almost any order, in my opinion.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Medieval, Top Gun: Maverick, DC League of Super Pets, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Bullet Train, Vengeance, Brahmastra Part 1: Shiva, Barbarian, B.J. Novak