The Numbers Weekend Preview News Articles - October 2016
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Weekend Predictions: Will Inferno Catch Fire over the Weekend?
October 27, 2016
There’s only one wide release this week, Inferno, and it should have no trouble earning first place. On the other hand, it won’t come close to matching the other two films in the Da Vinci Code franchise. Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween earned first place last week, but Madea movies tend to have short legs, so it could see a large drop-off this weekend. Or perhaps Halloween will help it thrive. This weekend last year, Halloween landed on a Saturday. It comes as no surprise that this was a disaster for the box office. The “best” new release, Burnt opened outside of the top five with just $5 million. The two and a half wide releases earned a combined $10 million last year. This year, there’s a small chance Inferno will earn $10 million during its opening day. There’s almost no chance 2016 won’t crush 2015 in the year-over-year comparison.
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Weekend Predictions: Will Reacher Reach the Top?
October 20, 2016
It is a busy week as far as wide releases are concerned, although not as busy as we thought it would be at the beginning of the month, as I’m Not Ashamed has dropped to “select cities”. It still has a shot at the top ten, but a slim shot. The biggest release of the week is Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, as it is opening in an estimated 3,800 theaters. However, the buzz is weak and its reviews won’t help either. It will likely struggle to top $20 million. This gives Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween a shot at first place. The best new release of the week is Ouija: Origin of Evil. One would hope a horror film earning 80% positive reviews ten days before Halloween would at least have a shot at first place. We’ll see. Finally there’s Keeping Up with the Joneses. It’s bad and that’s all I need to say about that. There is good news. This weekend last year was a disaster. The biggest wide release was The Last Witch Hunter and it earned less than $11 million. The biggest film was The Martian, which earned under $16 million. We could have two films top $20 million, so 2016 should end the slump it has been in.
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Weekend Predictions: Can Accountant be Counted On?
October 13, 2016
Three wide releases are coming out this week, which is one more than expected. The Accountant is clearly the biggest of the three, but its reviews are falling into the danger zone. Kevin Hart: What Now? is hoping to be the biggest stand-up comedy movie since Eddie Murphy’s Raw. Finally there’s Max Steel, which I didn’t think was going to open truly wide. Then again, its theater count is 2,034, so it is opening barely wide. This weekend last year, Goosebumps led the way with $23.62 million. I really thought The Accountant would top that, but I no longer think that will be likely. Worse still, there were five films that earned more than $10 million last year, but there will only be three of them this week. 2016’s slump will continue.
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Weekend Predictions: Will Girl be the Rebirth of the Box Office?
October 6, 2016
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October begins with a trio of wide releases, led by The Girl on the Train. The film’s reviews are mixed, which is not ideal, but also not fatal. The Birth of a Nation was looking to become an Awards Season player, but its reviews are not quite at that level. Finally there’s Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life. There are still no reviews and the buzz is as quiet as you can get for a wide release. This weekend last year, the only wide release was Pan and it bombed hard. However, The Martian remained on top with $37.01 million over the weekend. There’s almost no way The Girl on the Train will match that and last year had better depth as well. 2016’s slump will continue.
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