Friday Estimates: Aquaman Easily Tops Chart, Bumblebee tops Struggling Mary Poppins

December 22, 2018

Aquaman

Friday was not as potent as midnight previews led us to believe it would be. That said, Aquaman still had an impressive $28.0 million opening day. This does include the previous night’s $9.0 million in previews, but not last weekend’s $4.7 million in previews, giving the film a $32.7 million running tally. The film’s reviews remain in the overall positive level and it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, so it should have relatively good legs over the weekend, for a comic book movie. We predicted an opening weekend of $67 million and I think the film will top that, by one or two million dollars. It is more than enough for Warner Bros. to continue with the new direction DCEU is taking.

Bumblebee opened in second place with $8.46 million on Friday. Its reviews will certainly help its legs, as will its A minus from CinemaScore. It is on pace for just under $23 million over the weekend, so if it can get the traditional holiday legs, it will be able to match its $102 million production budget domestically. If it can do relatively as well internationally, then it will be a profitable film and Paramount will continue this era of the franchise.

Mary Poppins Returns was next with $6.7 million on Friday for a three-day total of $15.5 million. It should bounce back more on Saturday, because it is a family film and it was a Wednesday release. However, it looks like it will still have to settle for third place with just over $22 million. It should still have long legs, thanks in part to its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore, but also due to the holidays. $100 million domestically is practically a given, but many thought it would earn that in just five days. After a record-breaking first six months, Disney has been strangely off its game during the second half of the year. It will still be the biggest studio of the year, so don’t feel bad for them.

Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse was next with $4.85 million over the weekend, putting it on pace for $17 million or $18 million over the weekend. It should get to $100 million domestically by the end of the year, while it could pick up enough major Awards Season hardware to give it a boost on the home market.

The Mule rounded out the top five with $2.76 million, which is almost exactly where we expected it to be, so there’s not much more to say.

Second Act opened in sixth place with $2.49 million. This is a fine opening for a film that cost $15.7 million. Granted, its reviews are not going to help its legs, nor is its B plus from CinemaScore, but it should still match our predicted $10 million, five-day opening, starting with $7 million over the full weekend.

Welcome to Marwen opened even worse than anticipated with just $909,000 on Friday. Its reviews are the worst of the weekend and it only managed a B minus from CinemaScore. It will open below the Mendoza Line and theater owners will be shuffling it to their smallest screens before quietly dumping it as soon as they are contractually able to.

- Aquaman Comparisons
- Mary Poppins Returns Comparisons
- Bumblebee Comparisons
- Second Act Comparisons
- Welcome to Marwen Comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Aquaman, Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse 3D, Mary Poppins Returns, Bumblebee, Welcome to Marwen, Second Act, The Mule, Transformers, DC Extended Universe