Weekend Predictions: Will Captain Marvel have a Marvelous Start?
March 7, 2019
This should easily be the best weekend of 2019 as Captain Marvel is widely expected to become the biggest domestic hit of 2019 and it should take just three days to get there. It could take just two days to get there. This film has no competition, at least when it comes to this year. However, the main competition is Black Panther, A Wrinkle in Time, and the rest of the box office from this weekend last year. Those films pulled in $139 million and hopefully Captain Marvel will top that by itself.
Captain Marvel is the 21st film in the MCU. So far, more than half of the films in this franchise have opened with more than $100 million. Earlier in the year, Captain Marvel was expected to have an approximately 50/50 chance of being the 12th such film. However, its buzz has continued to grow quite a bit and the expectations rose from $90 million to $100 million to $120 million and more. Its reviews are helping the buzz. Its Tomatometer Score is 82% positive, which isn’t among the best in the franchise, but it is still great for a potential monster hit. I’ve seen many predictions that are north of $150 million, some coming close to $200 million. That seems like madness, especially with the number of 2019 films that have missed high expectations. I’m going with just over $140 million, which isn’t that far behind the film’s $152 million production budget. It could make enough worldwide that Disney’s share of the box office is enough to cover its entire production budget after its opening weekend, meaning it would break even by the end of March.
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World is going to be pushed into second place. However, the film crossed $100 million on Tuesday and it is on pace to top its $129 million budget domestically, so Universal shouldn’t be upset that it got knocked out of first place. The film should earn between $16 million and $17 million this weekend.
Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral will likely fall more than 50% this weekend. While films aimed at more mature women tend to have long legs at the box office, the Madea franchise arguably has enough of a following that it will be affected by the Fangirl Effect. That said, this would still give it $12 million to $13 million over the weekend and over $45 million after just ten days of release. This is more than enough to be a financial success.
The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part will continue its march to $100 million with just under $4 million this weekend. It will likely hit the century mark next weekend, but it will also be pushed out of the top five by next week’s new releases.
Alita: Battle Angel will likely be hurt the most by Captain Marvel’s arrival falling nearly 60% to $3 million. The film hasn’t had a bad run and if it “only” cost Fox $100 million to make, it would be considered a box office hit.
-2-News.jpg)
Filed under: Weekend Preview, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Captain Marvel, The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, Alita: Battle Angel, Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral, Madea, Marvel Cinematic Universe