Weekend Prediction: Will Hellboy have a Heavenly Start? Will Little open Large?

April 12, 2019

Hellboy

There are four wide releases this week, but it seems Shazam will remain the top draw, potentially by a significant margin. Hellboy was supposed to challenge for top spot, but its reviews are going to kill its box office chances. Little is earning better reviews, but its reviews are not good enough to overcome its smaller stature. Missing Link is earning amazing reviews, but that hasn’t helped other stop-motion animated films succeed in the recent past. After has the quietest buzz of the week and almost no reviews. This weekend last year wasn’t a great weekend at the box office, but it will certainly be better than this weekend will be. Avengers: Endgame can’t come soon enough.

Shazam started off a little better than anticipated last weekend and hopefully it will hold on well this weekend. It does have sort of direct competition. Hellboy is aimed at an older audience, while Shazam is for families, so that’s a point in this film’s favor. Additionally, its reviews are actually good, while the competition’s reviews are not. That said, a 50% drop-off is much more likely, resulting in a $26 million sophomore stint.

The reboot of Hellboy was always going to have trouble living up to its predecessor. Its chances of coming close to a real hit plummeted when its reviews came in, as they are terrible. I wasn’t expecting great reviews, not at this time of year, but I was hoping they would be around the overall positive level. The film has a shot at $20 million, but it could also struggle to open in the teens. I hope it’s on the high end, but I think $15 million is more likely.

Little is a typical April release. It works on paper, but the reviews show it doesn’t live up to its potential. That said, it has the potential to be a midlevel hit, opening with close to $20 million. Even if it only matches our $14 million prediction, it still has a chance of breaking even, sometime on the home market.

Up next is Missing Link, which I fear will be the latest stop-motion film to be praised bycritics, but ignored by moviegoers. It is aimed at families, so it shares some of its audience with Shazam and that’s going to hurt its box office chances. On the other hand, it will be the only animated film in the top ten, so that should help. I think it will at least be close to the other new releases, earning $12 million during its debut.

Pet Sematary should drop out the top five with $11 million. Good reviews will help its legs, but being a horror film and having nearly direct competition will hurt.

After is the smallest release and it has the weakest reviews. It could open below the Mendoza Line, and even if it avoids that fate, it will likely be close. Look for just under $5 million during its opening weekend.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Shazam!, Missing Link, Hellboy, Pet Sematary, Little, After