Weekend estimates: Freaky fails to deliver

November 15, 2020

Freaky

Going into the weekend, hopes were high that Freaky could post the kind box office numbers needed to show momentum in the theatrical market. Instead, it’s falling well short of our prediction, and numbers from the rest of the films in the top six, including a sharp 55% decline by last week’s winner Let Him Go, are also mostly disappointing. Instead of an increase in top six box office this weekend, we’re looking at a market that’s still flat, or even declining. What went wrong?



Hopes for a good weekend for Freaky were largely pinned on the fact that it targets the 18–24 demographic that has been largely overlooked in recent weeks. Since vulnerability to COVID-19 gets worse with age, in theory young adult moviegoers should be more inclined to go to movie theaters, and if that proved to be the case, Freaky should do better than recent thrillers like Let Him Go and Honest Thief, which tend to attract older audiences. According to Universal’s report this morning, Freaky did find its audience: 36% of people attending the film were between 18 and 24, which is the highest reported share for that demographic since Ma hit 40% in May, 2019. The other relatively recent movie to hit that level was Us, which scored a 37% 18–24 market share in March, 2019.

The fact that Freaky found its audience and still posted only a projected $3.71 million for the weekend is a troubling sign that 18–24-year-olds are less likely to turn out for a movie than older adults. Since this is only one movie, data is scant, of course, and an alternative explanation is that the market as a whole is on the decline as COVID-19 cases increase dramatically across the country and more restrictions on social activities are imposed. There is evidence for that in the numbers for the returning films. As noted, Let Him Go fell by 55% from its opening weekend, which is high by recent standards. Honest Thief is off 30% this weekend, which is actually a slightly worse performance given how longs it’s been playing in theaters.

The one bright spot is The War with Grandpa, which will post another $1.3 million this weekend and pass $15 million in total. The surprising strength of family films makes the release of The Croods: A New Age one to watch for. That, and the fact that Croods is one of only two wide releases left to come out this month (the other being Vanguard, which is reportedly in 1,500 theaters this coming weekend).

In international markets, Freaky debuted with $1.91 million outside North America, including a number one, $426,000, opening in Australia. Other strong markets for the film include Russia/CIS, with $324,000, and Mexico, with $171,000.

Tenet will pick up $1.7 million worldwide this weekend from 53 markets, including the US and Canada. Its international cume is $297.2 million, and it has now made $353.5 million worldwide.

- Weekend studio estimates
- Weekend predictions
- Weekend theater counts

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, The War with Grandpa, Honest Thief, Tenet, Let Him Go, Freaky, Ji Xian Feng