Weekend estimates: Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard debuts with $11.675 million
June 20, 2021
With three of the films in the top six exceeding our model’s prediction and three falling short, the overall market will land right in line with expectations, although down 22% from last weekend. That honestly isn’t a great result when we’re all hoping for the market recovery to continue. A Quiet Place: Part II is having another good weekend, with a projected $9.4 million taking it to $125.3 million so far. That’s the most for any movie during the pandemic era. Godzilla vs. Kong joins it in the $100 million-plus club this weekend, with $250,000 taking the monster movie to $100.1 million.
The real disappointment this weekend is In the Heights. It’s headed for $4.205 million for the weekend, per Warner Bros.’ Sunday-morning projection. That’s a 63% decline from last weekend, which isn’t very good by pandemic standards, and disappointing for a musical that’s getting great reviews and a strongly-positive audience response. Musicals are films that can have very strong legs thanks to repeat visits by fans, but that doesn’t seem to be working out in this case. I can only guess at why that might be the case, but it seems plausible that people who loved the film when they saw it in the theater last weekend are then rewatching the film on HBO Max rather than going back to a movie theater this weekend.
All-in-all, this is another weekend where we seem to be in a holding pattern. A big opening for F9: The Fast Saga next weekend would set us back on track. It’ll be playing in 4,000 theaters, per Universal, which is enough for it to do good business. If it manages A Quiet Place’s theater average, it’ll be the first film during the pandemic to hit $50 million over the three-day weekend. More on that later in the week…
Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com
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The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard will pull off a relatively easy win at the box office this weekend, with Lionsgate projecting it will earn $11.675 million from Friday to Sunday for a five-day opening a shade over $17 million. That’s a decent start for an action comedy, which our model says should be doing about $8 million at the moment, but it’s a shade behind our Friday prediction, which projected $13.6 million based on its solid $3.9 million opening day. All-in-all, that adds up to a glass-half-full/empty weekend at the box office.
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Godzilla vs. Kong, F9: The Fast Saga, In the Heights, A Quiet Place: Part II, The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard