Weekend predictions: Gran Turismo likely winner on crowded weekend
August 25, 2023
Gran Turismo looks likely to top the box office chart this weekend, but our predictions are complicated by the fact that we have four new wide releases, a wide re-release, and National Cinema Day on Sunday. In spite of all that, this will almost certainly be the first weekend to gross less than $100 million in total since the weekend of March 31.
Our model has been busy today compiling predictions for all the new wide releases. Here are the details…
Gran Turismo is a hard film to predict, since it’s not your normal dramatization, a genre that is usually geared towards an older and more demographically mixed demographic. Gran Turismo skews much younger and more male, which makes the analysis above somewhat speculative. For what it’s worth, the model’s initial prediction (based on Sony’s recent action movie releases) was broadly in line with industry expectations.
The preview numbers don’t look as good though…
If we rely solely on the previews for our prediction, the film will barely top $12 million this weekend. Our final prediction, at just over $14 million, sounds a little closer to the mark to me, particularly if cheap prices on Sunday help to fill theaters. As we shall see, even if hits that number, its spot at the top of the chart isn’t assured.
The Liam Neeson action movie is a genre unto itself, albeit one that has been struggling a little lately. The chart above has the most recent movie at the left-hand end and adjusts the opening weekend for each movie to reflect the strength of the theatrical market during the pandemic. There’s a clear downward trend, from around $10 million to $14 million to something closer to $5 million in the last 12 months. The model thinks something around $6 million is likely, but our audience tracking boosts that to $9.1 million. That’s a number that strikes me as optimistic, but Neeson has a long-term track record that supports it, and maybe he’s due for a comeback.
Next up is The Hill…
This is another biographical film, a sports drama with a faith-based element this time. Briarcliff Entertainment has a limited track record, and the model thought something around $3 million would be good for this film. The Thursday previews, at just $110,000, make that figure look a long way off, but dramas like this can have quite high multipliers:
The model thinks $2.5 million is still on the cards for this weekend, and over $1 million is a virtual lock. For my money, that would be a satisfactory result for the studio as it grows its theatrical experience.
The final new wide release of the weekend is Golda, a biographical drama starring Helen Mirren…
With a release in just 883 theaters, this film probably doesn’t have the footprint to do a lot of business, but it won’t need to overperform much to hit the top 10. That’s the limit of its ambition though, based on the model’s expectations.
Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.
Gran Turismo goes into the weekend as the favorite, but Barbie has a decent shot at winning again, particularly as it seems like it’ll have a good boost from National Cinema Day, which isn’t built into our model.
Top Gun: Maverick jumped 27% on National Cinema Day weekend last year, although that coincided with the Labor Day weekend. Barbie would only need a small boost to hit the top of the chart again, and I could easily imagine it dropping 20% from last weekend to $18 million, and pipping Gran Turismo at the post.
The wildcard this weekend is Jurassic Park, which is having a 30th-anniversary re-release in 1,224 theaters. The film will be playing in 3D, with a relatively small number of shows each day (just two per theater in most cases). That will limit how much it can make, but it certainly has a shot at the top 10. By way of comparison, Jaws earned $2.6 million when it was re-released in 1,246 theaters last year.
Even if Jurassic Park over-performs, with $3 million, say, and movies like Barbie, Oppenheimer, and Mission: Impossible get a boost from Sunday’s discounted tickets, we have a long way to go to hit $100 million this weekend. If we miss that mark, it’s probably fair to declare Summer is over.
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The film our model thinks the film that will likely come second among the new releases is Retribution…
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Jurassic Park, The Flash, Barbie, Blue Beetle, Golda, Strays, Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story, Retribution, The Hill, DC Extended Universe, Liam Neeson, Helen Mirren