Weekend predictions: Songbirds & Snakes looking for mid-40s weekend
November 17, 2023
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes will land with an opening weekend somewhere in the mid-$40-millions, according to our model’s Friday run. While that’s well short of the debuts of previous films in the franchise, it’s a respectable number, and it’ll look very respectable if the final number comes in ahead of the $46.1 million earned by The Marvels last weekend. Technically, there’s a lot of competition from new releases this weekend, but those films neatly manage to avoid competing with one another, so in reality this could be a weekend when four new movies thrive.
With some many new films, I’ll just be posting the predictions with minimal commentary this week.
Starting with our baseline prediction for The Hunger Games:
While the model uses previous films in a franchise as a point of comparison, that’s probably an unfair standard for Songbirds & Snakes. Its preview numbers suggest it’ll post decent numbers, without coming anywhere close to a franchise record…
Its previews suggest it’ll fall some distance short of the original film in the franchise (although note the massive multiplier enjoyed by the first Trolls on its opening weekend).
It strikes me that the model is being particularly harsh in its prediction for this one, and there seems like a good chance Band Together can top $20 million.
The preview numbers basically confirm that analysis:
Finally we have Next Goal Wins. Taika Waititi’s comedy-drama is probably the hardest film to predict this weekend, partly because no preview numbers were announced. It looks like a decent bet for a $5-million opening, but it could have good legs through the holidays.
Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.
With so much to choose from, hitting $100 million this weekend looks a virtual certainty.
- The Numbers Business Report has box office predictions for all films being released over the next 12 months
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Trolls: Band Together just has a single film in its franchise to use as a point of comparison:
Thanksgiving never looked as though it would manage $20 million this weekend, but our baseline analysis pointed towards $10 million being a good benchmark.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Marvels, Next Goal Wins, Trolls Band Together, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, Thanksgiving, Taika Waititi