The Numbers Weekend Preview News Articles - December 2017
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Weekend Predictions: The Last Jedi Looks to Top The Last Weekend of 2017
December 28, 2017
As per usual, the weekend after Christmas has no new wide releases. This means there will be almost no changes in the top five from last weekend, meaning Star Wars: The Last Jedi will win with ease, while Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle will be in a comfortable second place. This weekend last year, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and Sing were neck-and-neck with just over $90 million combined. The Last Jedi and Jumanji should top that, giving 2017 one last win in the year-over-year comparison.
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Weekend Predictions: New Releases are Far From Perfect
December 21, 2017
This is technically Christmas Weekend, so it should come as no surprised that there are a lot of movies vying for that lucrative Christmas family audience. Two of them, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman, opened yesterday, and we’ve already talked about how well they did on their opening day. On Friday, they will be joined by Pitch Perfect 3, Downsizing, and Father Figures, none of which are earning good reviews and only one of which is expected to be a box office hit. This should leave Star Wars: The Last Jedi on top of the chart with room to spare. This weekend last year, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story dominated the box office, while Sing was the only release that was a major hit.
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Weekend Predictions: Jumanji Takes on Jedi
December 20, 2017
Five films are opening wide this week, two of which, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman, debut on Wednesday. We will have full predictions at the usual time, but we should at least discuss these two films before everyone has a chance to see them.
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Weekend Predictions: Last Jedi Goes up Against Rogue and Awakens
December 14, 2017
2017 is behind 2016’s pace by over $400 million and and this weekend is the last chance it has to cut that deficit by any real margin. This weekend, Star Wars: The Last Jedi debuts and it is practically a guaranteed monster hit. Rogue One made just over $400 million in the 2016 calendar year, while The Force Awakens earned just over $650 million. The Last Jedi is widely expected to earn somewhere in-between those results. In the meantime, there is one other wide release, Ferdinand, which is the textbook definition of counter-programming. The studio is just hoping it doesn’t get lost in the crowd. This weekend last year, the total box office was $211.57 million. I give The Last Jedi about a 50/50 chance of topping that by itself.
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Weekend Preview: Jedi Will be the Last Film to Earn Top Spot in 2017
December 12, 2017
First a quick note, this is a weekend preview, not weekend predictions, because I’m looking more at the big picture and less at the actual weekend numbers. Star Wars: The Last Jedi opens this weekend, although if you are part of our international readership, it might have already opened where you live. We will be going over its daily results as soon as they start coming in. In the meantime, I’m a little more bullish than I was last week, as the reviews finally started coming in. The film’s Tomatometer Score is an impressive 93% positive with an average score of 8.3 out of 10. This is actually on par with or better than some Awards Season players and it is stellar for a blockbuster. The film is widely expected to fit somewhere between The Force Awakens and Rogue One and with a lot of people saying this is the best Star Wars film since The Empire Strikes Back, the higher end appears to be more likely than the lower end. Previously, $200 million was the target for the film’s opening weekend, but now $210 million to $225 million is within reach. Furthermore, it is expected to top that during its opening weekend internationally leaving the film with a slim chance at $500 million worldwide. On the downside, the film likely cost that much to make and advertise, so it needs to be a $1 billion hit worldwide to break even in a timely fashion. Fortunately, no one really thinks that will be a problem. In fact, a lot of people are assuming the film will earn $1 billion internationally, while most won't be shocked if it reaches $2 billion worldwide.
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Weekend Predictions: Coco Looks to Threepeat on Top
December 8, 2017
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There is only one wide release this weekend, Just Getting Started. However, it is barely opening wide and is widely expected to miss the top ten. This means the top five will barely change from last week and Coco should have no trouble remaining on top of the chart. This weekend last year, Office Christmas Party opened in second place, behind Moana. Office Christmas Party was hardly a monster hit, but it was strong enough to keep 2017 from winning the year-over-year comparison. Hopefully, it will still be close.
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