The Numbers Weekend Preview News Articles - January 2018
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Weekend Predictions: Can Maze Runner Sprint to the Finish Line?
January 25, 2018
Maze Runner: The Death Cure, is the final installment of the Maze Runner trilogy and is the only wide release of the week. It is guaranteed first place, unless something horrible happens, but there’s almost no chance it will live up to the other two installments. Hostiles is expanding wide, but I don’t have a lot of faith in the film’s box office chances. It is almost the exact wrong time to expand. This weekend last year, Split had a surprisingly good hold earning $25 million, while four other films earned more than $10 million at the box office. That’s not going to happen this year, so 2018 will lose in the year-over-year comparison. It shouldn’t be a complete blowout, on the other hand.
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Weekend Predictions: Are the New Releases Strong? Or will Jumanji Rule Forever?
January 18, 2018
The post-holiday weekend is rarely a good week to release a movie and none of the three new releases are expected to be box office successes. 12 Strong is the biggest release and it is also earning the best reviews, although its Tomatometer Score is just 50% positive. Den of Thieves isn’t opening as wide, while its reviews are not as good. It also shares its target audience with 12 Strong, which will hurt its box office chances even more. Finally there’s Forever My Girl, which is barely opening semi-wide and will likely miss the top ten. This weekend last year, Split had a shockingly big opening. In fact, the second place film, xXx: Return of Xander Cage, opened with just over $20 million, which is more than any film is expected to earn this weekend. 2018’s mini-winning streak is about to come to a painful end.
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Weekend Predictions: Paddington and Post take on Jumanji over MLK Long Weekend
January 11, 2018
It is the first long weekend of 2018 and we have four films trying to take advantage of the MLK holiday. However, only Paddington 2 and The Post have a real shot at box office success. The Commuter’s buzz is so quiet that its box office chances have taken a real hit. Worse still, Sony’s treatment of Proud Mary is almost bizarre. I’ve seen limited releases with more marketing push than Proud Mary is getting. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle’s legs will likely remain really long, helping it repeat as box office champion. More importantly, it should help the 2018 box office get a sizable win in the year-over-year comparison. This weekend last year, there were seven films that earned more than $10 million over the long weekend, but only one film, Hidden Figures, earned more than $20 million. This year, not only will we match that number of $10 million films, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle should top $30 million, while Paddington 2 and The Post should top $20 million.
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Weekend Predictions: Battle of Lasts, Key vs. Jedi, on First Weekend of 2018
January 4, 2018
It is the first weekend of 2018 and Insidious: The Last Key is the only true wide release, although Molly’s Game is expanding semi-wide. The Last Key isn’t expected to compete with Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle or Star Wars: The Last Jedi for first place, but if it can open with more than $15 million, it should at least help the year get off to a good start. This weekend last year, Underworld: Blood Wars opened in fourth place, while Hidden Figures expanded into first place. Both Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Star Wars: The Last Jedi should top Hidden Figures and while 2018 won’t have the same depth, it should still earn a victory in the year-over-year comparison.
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