This graph shows Bella Thorne’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
It’s an odd week for limited releases and I’m not sure any of them will have a real shot at box office success. There are some, like After Everything, that are earning excellent reviews, but are playing on VOD. There are others, like Beautiful Boy, that were earning loud pre-release buzz, but failed to live up to the hype with critics. I think The Kindergarten Teacher might have a shot at box office success, but I’m also hoping Liyana beats expectations.
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We are getting really close to Awards Season and there are some top-notch films on this week’s list that could pick up some major nominations. This includes The Hate U Give, which is the biggest release of the week. However, I’m also interested in The Great Buster, Private Life, Trouble, and Heavy Trip.
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February was an amazing month, thanks mainly to Black Panther, but Fifty Shades Freed and Peter Rabbit were also significant hits and overall the month was a massive improvement over last February. Looking forward, there’s nothing opening in March that will earn as much in total as Black Panther did during its opening weekend. That said, A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One should have no trouble getting to $100 million, while Tomb Raider has a 50/50 chance of getting there. Unfortunately, compared to last March, this is still a pittance. There’s a chance that no film opening this March will earn as much in total as Beauty and the Beast opened with last march. We will need Black Panther to have good legs to keep 2018 ahead of 2017 by the end of the month.
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17-year-old Katie Price has been sheltered since childhood with a life-threatening sensitivity to sunlight. Katie’s world opens up after dark when she ventures out to play her guitar for travelers. One night, she meets Charlie whom she has secretly admired for years. She hides her condition from him, and the two embark on a uniquely powerful romance.
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May was a really soft month with only one unqualified hit, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2, which is climbing towards $375 million domestically. The second biggest hit of the month will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales and I would be surprised if it tops $150 million by any serious margin. June looks a lot more profitable. There are five weeks and every week there is at least one film with a great shot at $100 million or more. In fact, there are four films with at least a decent shot at $200 million and we could double the number of $300 million hits released so far this year. Wonder Woman is widely expected to start the month with an explosive debut and pulling in more than $100 million during its opening weekend is more and more likely. That said, Despicable Me 3 will probably end up being the biggest hit overall with over $300 million. Meanwhile, Cars 3 and Transformers: The Last Knight are both aiming for $200 million. Last June was not particularly strong, outside of one hit. Finding Dory earned nearly $500 million domestically, while the second best film, Central Intelligence, barely earned a quarter of that. I don’t think any film will come close to Finding Dory, but there’s a lot more depth this time around and I have high hopes 2017 will extend its lead.
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September is over and we should all be glad about that. Unless the final weekend brings a surprise $100 million hit or two, 2016’s lead over 2015 will shrink over the month. There were some bright spots, most notably Sully, which will be the biggest hit of the month. On the other hand, we had more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Sadly, October isn’t much better. There are a couple of films that could be $100 million hits, but most of the films will struggle to become midlevel hits. Both Inferno and The Girl on the Train are aiming for $100 million. One of them might get there too. If both get there, then October will be seen as a success. By comparison, last October was led by The Martian; however, because of a misalignment in the calendar, The Martian’s opening weekend actually lines up with the final weekend in September. It had great legs, so that will help 2015 early in the month, but the rest of the month was terrible last year and I think 2016 will come out ahead as a result.
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Ratchet and Clank opened in late April, which is a bad time of the year to release a movie, as the first of the Summer blockbusters is just around the corner. Even so, Ratchet and Clank was a serious box office disappointment. Is it as bad as its box office numbers? Or would it have thrived during a better time of year?
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It is both a very busy week with nearly a dozen releases on this week's list and a disappointing one. The slate of new releases is really weak, with only Mistress America having a decent shot at box office success. There are a couple of other releases that have the reviews to do well, but are playing on VOD. Of these, People Places Things is my choice for Video on Demand Pick of the Week, although I'm hoping Final Girl is better than its early reviews would indicate.
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The Duff opened in February, which isn't a good time of the year to release a film. It earned good reviews and topped its meager expectations. Now that it is out on the home market, is it worth picking up? Was it unfairly overlooked by moviegoers the first time around?
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It is a good week, but not a great week on the home market. There's really only one major release to talk about, Kingsman: The Secret Service. It is also one of the best releases of the week and one of a trio of Pick of the Week contenders that earned between 70% and 80% positive reviews. The other two are The Duff and The Sisterhood of Night. All three are worth picking up, but the winner of the Pick of the Week title is Red Army on DVD or Blu-ray / Video on Demand.
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It was a record-breaking January thanks entirely to American Sniper, which set records, both during its limited release run and especially when it expanded wide. There were a couple of other films that did well, but for the most part, it was a typical January. The question is, will American Sniper boost the overall box office, which would help February, or will its effects fade as it does? There are ten wide releases in February; there are a few films that may or may not open in the top ten. Of these, there are only two that have a real shot at true box office success. The biggest film in terms of buzz is Fifty Shades of Grey, which looks so, so bad. Personally, I would rather watch The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water a hundred times than sit through just the trailer for Fifty Shades of Grey. If Fifty Shades of Grey becomes the biggest hit of the month, it will mrean the end of civilization. Because. I. Will. End. Civilization. Last February was mostly mediocre, except for The LEGO Movie which was a huge early year hit. There's no chance any film opening this month will match The LEGO Movie; the top two films likely won't match The LEGO Movie. Because of this, 2015 will need to rely on depth to come out ahead. I'm not sure how likely that will be.
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