The Numbers News - October 2015
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Friday Estimates: Halloween Haunts the Box Office
October 31, 2015
Because Halloween is a dead zone for the box office when it lands during the weekend, it has a major effect on the box office. Therefore, it is important for box office analysts to compare weekends where the holiday lands on the same day. This is a problem, because the last time Halloween landed on a Saturday was 2009. The only film to open wide that weekend was Michael Jackson's This is It, which is in no way similar to any of the movies that opened wide this weekend. The previous similar weekend was in 1998, but while Vampires is a closer match to Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse, the box office has changed too much to compare the films. We're flying blind this weekend. Fortunately, even flying blind, it is easy to make one declaration: All three wide releases bombed.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Nothing to Freak Out About
October 30, 2015
It is a short week for limited releases with nothing that looks particularly promising at the box office. Freaks of Nature might get a boost from Halloween, but I seriously doubt it. On the other hand, The Armor Of Light, Flowers, and The Wonders all are earning great reviews and have a shot at doing well in art house theaters. None of them will expand wide enough to earn a significant measure of mainstream success. It is likely none of them will crack $10,000 on the per theater average.
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Thursday Night Previews: Burnt Out
October 30, 2015
Two of the three wide releases had Thursday previews, with Burnt having the bigger of the two films' launches. Bigger is a relative term. It only managed $250,000 during its previews, which is bad news. Its bad news for the studio, as this doesn't bode well for its box office chances. It is also bad new for me, because this is so low it is hard to find other films to compare it with. It is about 10% lower than The Green Inferno, which is about as close a match as I could find, but those two films share almost none of their respective audiences. The Intern is a closer match as far as audiences are concerned. That film earned $650,000 during its previews on its way to a $24.90 million opening weekend. Burnt has worse reviews, so it likely won't have the same internal multiplier. Even so, it should make between $7 million and $9 million, which is a little higher than predicted, but not enough to keep the studio happy.
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Contest: Elementary, My Dear Bond
October 29, 2015
Spectre opens next week and it should dominate the box office. As such, it is the only real choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Spectre.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Mr. Holmes on DVD, plus a previously reviewed DVD or Blu-ray.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Mr. Holmes on DVD, plus a previously reviewed DVD or Blu-ray.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a copy of Mr. Holmes on DVD, plus a previously reviewed DVD or Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Featured 3D Blu-ray / DVD Review: Jurassic World
October 29, 2015
(As we mentioned previously, we've run out of images for Jurassic World, so we're reduced to using less than official images. I know I promised Corgis dress as dinosaurs, but I couldn't find any really good pictures. I did find a picture of Guinea Pigs dressed as dinosaurs, which might be even cuter. So thanks to Reddit user guineapigsarethebest for letting us use your picture.)
Jurassic World became the biggest hit of the year and one of the biggest hits in the history of the box office. On the other hand, its reviews were not that good with the term "dumb" used repeatedly, even in the positive reviews. Is it dumb fun? Is it just plain dumb?
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Weekend Predictions: Halloween Horrors
October 29, 2015
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Halloween is a dead zone for the box office, for the most part, and this year it lands on Saturday. Unless we are dealing with a horror film, it's going to be a bad weekend. There are two truly wide openings this weekend, Burnt and Our Brand is Crisis, neither of which are horror films. There is also one semi-wide release, Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse, which is a horror movie, but the buzz is so quiet I don't think it will matter. All three movies are earning bad reviews and it looks like the top three this weekend will be the same as they were last weekend. (There's a chance Goosebumps gets a big enough Halloween boost to climb into first place.) This weekend last year, there was only one new release in the top ten, Nightcrawler, which earned second place with just over $10 million. That's better than any one of the new releases will do this year; however, there's better depth this year, so I think 2015 will come out on top on the year-over-year comparison.
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International Box Office: Martian Completes Another Orbit
October 28, 2015
The Martian returned to first place with $30.0 million in 73 markets for totals of $218.8 million internationally and $385.0 million worldwide. The film's only major market opening was in France where it earned second place with $6.81 million on 560 screens. It also remained in first place in South Korea with $3.99 million on 731 screens over the weekend for a three-week total of $28.43 million. I don't know if it has broken even yet, but it is very close to getting there.
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Contest: On the Hunt: Winning Announcement
October 27, 2015
The winners of our On the Hunt contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Last Witch Hunter opening weekend were...
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Per Theater Chart: Suffragette Voted Top Film on Per Theater Chart
October 27, 2015
Suffragette started its potential Oscar-run earning first place on the per theater chart with an average of $19,056 in four theaters. That suggests room to grow, but perhaps not enough to expand truly wide. It will need to last in theaters long enough for Awards Season nominations to be announced and if it can do well then, it will boost its box office chances. Heart of a Dog was next with an opening of $13,893 in one theater. Room was the only holdover in the $10,000 club earning an average of $10,856 in 23 theaters. It will earn some measure of mainstream success, but unless Brie Larson earns some major Awards Season nominations, it won't expand truly wide.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: New Releases were Hunted Down
October 26, 2015
Most of the new releases were not expected to do well at the box office. ... Almost no one saw this coming. We had some near-record bombs this weekend and even the best of the new releases were terrible. This left The Martian in first place; in fact, the top three spots and four of the top five were held by holdovers. The best new release, The Last Witch Hunter, barely cracked the $10 million mark. The overall box office fell 14% from last weekend to $105 million. This was also 9.5% lower than the same weekend last year. Midweek numbers were better this year than last year, so the year-over-year actually improved and 2015 now has a 5.2% lead over 2014 at $8.60 billion to $8.18 billion.
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Home Market Releases for October 27th, 2015
October 26, 2015
It's the week of double-dips, as there are five double-dips for films that would normally be Pick of the Week contenders, but only if you don't have them already. Army Of Darkness has been released so many times, it is hard to keep track of them all. Same with Monty Python and the Holy Grail. If you don't own either of these movies, you need to buy them. However, most fans will already have them. Because of this, I'm giving the Pick of the Week to Mad Men. I reviewed Season Seven, Part Two, but the Complete Series Megaset is the better deal.
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Featured TV on DVD Review: Mad Men: Season Seven, Part Two
October 25, 2015
I got a chance to review the last Mad Men release as the Complete Series Megaset came out the same week as the DVD and Blu-ray for Season Seven, Part Two. I requested the Megaset, but I got the final two-disc release. I hate reviewing partial seasons, especially when it is the second half of a season where I didn't review the first half. These tend to be nothing but spoilers, making it nearly impossible to review. Is that this case here? Yes. So we can't get into details, as we hit spoilers right away. Fortunately, this is the end of the series, so details are less important than seeing what happens to the characters and if their arcs had satisfying conclusions. Is that the case?
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Weekend Estimates: Martian Avoids the Wreckage
October 25, 2015
Dismal is about the politest word that can be applied to the box office performance of new releases this weekend. None of the five films new in wide release managed to make the top three on the chart, and two of them didn’t even crack the top ten. That leaves The Martian and Goosebumps to battle it out for first place, and a fourth-week decline of just 25% for The Martian looks virtually certain to give it the win. Fox projects it will make $15.9 million for a total by the end of the weekend of $166 million or so. Its performance to date falls neatly between that of Interstellar and Gravity, which puts the sci-fi adventure on course for a final domestic box office of $230 million (see full comps here).
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Friday Estimates: Rock Bottom
October 24, 2015
Where to start? There are so many new releases to talk about and none of them did well. Some did so poorly that talking about them seems mean. So, let’s start by saying that Friday’s box office chart was led by The Martian, while Goosebumps has a shot at repeating on top of the chart, with each film earning about $14 million to $15 million. Meanwhile, Bridge of Spies should earn third place over the weekend with between $11 million and $12 million.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Vote for the Best Limited Release
October 23, 2015
There's quite a few strong limited releases on this week's list, including Suffragette, which is earning by far the loudest buzz. Its reviews are good, but not great. On the other hand, Difret's reviews are great, but it has far less mainstream appeal. Bone Tomahawk has the potential to become a cult favorite, but it is playing on Video on Demand, so it likely won't make an impact at the box office.
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Midnight Box Office: Not a lot of (Paranormal) Activity at Midnight Showings
October 23, 2015
There were four films that had midnight shows last night, but none of them did particularly well. In fact, had their combined total been earned by one movie, it still wouldn't be much to celebrate about. Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension led the way with $600,000 in 1,000 theaters. This is substantially lower than the $800,000 Crimson Peak earned just last week, and that film wasn't a big hit at the box office during its opening weekend. Additionally, Crimson Peak's reviews are a lot better The Ghost Dimension's reviews are. Add in the sequel effect and we could be in for a really bad opening weekend.
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Contest: Crisis Management
October 23, 2015
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Next weekend three films are opening wide, maybe, sort of? Halloween is on Saturday, which is a dead zone for the box office, so I don't think the studios are too concerned about the movies they are releases. Burnt might be opening in limited release this week and expanding wide next weekend, or it might be opening wide next weekend. (I just read a source that had it opening wide this week. Confusion like that can't help the film.) Scout's Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse is opening at least semi-wide, but it is also coming out on VOD just a few weeks later, so a lot of theater owners are balking at the film. That leaves Our Brand is Crisis. I doubt it will be a hit, but I think it has the best shot at earning number one out of these three films. As such, it is the only choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Our Brand is Crisis.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
There is a difference this time. Two people will earn Frankenprizes consisting of two horror movies. The other winner will earn a Frankprize consisting of two "horror" movies, that is to say movies so bad that it will fill you with horror. This is the last time we will be doing this for Halloween, but we're doing it again for Christmas, with two presents and a lump of coal.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Weekend Predictions: Moviegoers Should be Scared to See a New Release this Weekend
October 22, 2015
The box office prediction contests for the past few weeks have had a horror / "horror" theme. That is to say, two people won horror movies and the third won movies that were so bad it is scary they exist. There are four new releases this weekend and they all epitomize the latter. Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension has a review embargo, which is never a good sign, while the other three wide releases are all earning less than 20% positive reviews. Does that mean there's nothing worth seeing this week? Nope. Fortunately, Steve Jobs is expanding wide and should earn first place at the box office. It is the only film on this week's list with a shot at $20 million. This weekend last year, Ouija nearly reached $20 million and five other films earned $10 million. I don't think we will match that this year. It could be close and any gain or loss in the year-over-year comparison should be in single digits, so there's no reason to be overly concerned.
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International Box Office: Ant-Man is Big Man in China
October 22, 2015
Ant-Man made a triumphant return to the international chart with a first place, $43.5 million run in 3 markets for totals of $275.9 million internationally and $454.7 million worldwide. Nearly all of this weekend haul came from China, where the film opened in first place with $42.77 million. (Some are reporting it came in second place to Goodbye Mr. Loser, but they are comparing the film's weekly total to Ant-Man's opening weekend.) Depending on how much money the film cost to advertise worldwide, it might have broken even already. If not, it will get there very early in its home market run.
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Contest: Cutis Anserina: Winning Announcement
October 21, 2015
The winners of our Cutis Anserina contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Goosebumps opening weekend were...
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Per Theater Chart: Very Little Room at the Top
October 21, 2015
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Room was in a close race for top spot on the per theater with last week's winner, but it came out on top with an average of $29,575 in four theaters. Steve Jobs was right behind with an average of $25,212 in 60. This film is going to expand wide this weekend and could lead the weekend. The Assassin earned an average of $11,973 in four theaters, which is strong for a foreign-language film. Meanwhile, Truth was right behind with an average of $11,039 in six.
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Home Market Numbers: Age Opens Well, but Not Quite the Ultimate Opening
October 21, 2015
As expected, The Avengers: Age of Ultron led the September 29th new releases earning an easy first place on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for October 4th. It sold 1.60 million units and generated $29.35 million in revenue. It also had an opening week Blu-ray share of 69%. That's simply fantastic. However, it wasn't the best first-week opening we've seen this fall, as it fell just behind Furious 7. On the other hand, Age of Ultron was a Friday release, so it had a shorter opening week. Next week we will compare the running tallies of the two films and that will likely give us a much better picture of where these two films will end up.
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Home Market Releases for October 20th, 2015
October 20, 2015
It is a shallow week on the home market. The number one release is Jurassic World, which is one of the biggest hits of all time. The second biggest release according to Amazon.com is the Back to the Future Box Set. There's mostly filler by the time you get to the second page of new releases. As for the best release on this week's list, I'm going old school. ... Really, really old school. Diary of a Lost Girl is 86 years old, but the Blu-ray is Pick of the Week.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Goosebumps Leads Unstimulating Weekend
October 20, 2015
It is hard to get excited about the weekend box office results, as the top four films all missed predictions. (Granted, Bridge of Spies came within a rounding error of expectations.) Goosebumps did well for a live-action family film, but still not great. The Martian fell faster than anticipated, but it was Crimson Peak that was the biggest disappointment. Overall, the box office rose 2.5% from last weekend to $121 million. However, this was 7.6% lower than the same weekend last year. Had every film in the top five matched expectations, then this gap would have been reduced to just a percent or two. Despite this, 2015 is still ahead of 2014 by more than $400 million at $8.46 billion to $8.05 billion. It would take a few more weeks of year-over-year declines before I would be concerned.
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Z for Zachariah
October 19, 2015
Z for Zachariah opened below the Mendoza Line, but it was also a VOD premiere, which never helps the box office numbers. Should it find an audience on the home market? Or was it going to fail at the box office no matter how its was released?
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Featured TV on DVD Review: Nurse Jackie: Season Seven
October 18, 2015
I have reviewed every season of Nurse Jackie, except for season five. Season six was regarded by most to be the worst season and that was the season I officially gave up on the show. However, when I learned Season Seven would be the show's last season, I decided to give it a shot. Was that a mistake? Did the show finally solve all of the problems that were bugging me over the years?
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Weekend Estimates: Goosebumps Set to Win Tight Race
October 18, 2015
A slightly-softer-than-expected (but still good) opening for Goosebumps will be enough to take the film to the top of the box office chart this weekend, according to studio projections released on Sunday morning. Sony expects the family horror adventure to come in with $23.5 million on opening weekend, which is a solid enough start, and sets the film up for a good run, helped by strong reviews and Halloween coming up in a couple of weeks. The Martian will land in second with a projected $21.5 million as of this morning, a slightly steeper-than-expected 42% decline from last weekend, and a total to date around $144 million. In general, we’re looking at quite a few steep drops from last weekend thanks to an unfavorable comparison with the Columbus Day long weekend and a batch of new releases.
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: The Vatican Tapes
October 18, 2015
The Vatican Tapes is a horror film that includes elements of found footage. (It was actually originally written to be entirely found footage, but that was changed early in the production.) This genre is well off its peak in terms of popularity and even the fact that it had some connection to found footage was enough to kill its buzz. It also opened in "select cities", which is a terrible release strategy in general, and especially bad for horror films. It opened below the Mendoza Line (earning less that $2,000 per theater) before disappearing from theaters. Is it really that bad? Or did it struggle because of genre overload?
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Friday Estimates: Close Race for First makes for Interesting Weekend
October 17, 2015
It looks like it will be a very interesting weekend, as Goosebumps and The Martian appear to be in a close race for first place. Goosebumps led the way on Friday with $7.35 million. This is 40% more than Pan’s opening day last weekend. Add in the film’s better reviews and its family-friendly target audience and it should have a solid internal multiplier, perhaps in the vacinity of Alexander and the Blah, Blah, Blah. That puts Goosebumps on track for a $25 million opening. That’s a little lower than I would have liked and the film will need solid legs and a reasonable international run to break even. I wouldn’t bet against it breaking even, but I don't think it will be turned into a franchise.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Make Room for Limited Releases
October 16, 2015
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It is a fantastic week for limited releases with a number of movies in various genres that are earning impressive reviews / loud buzz. There's documentaries (All Things Must Pass and A Ballerina's Tale); horror (Tales of Halloween); action (The Assassin); and even a potential Oscar winner (Room).
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Contest: On the Hunt
October 16, 2015
Next weekend is a bit of a mess when it comes to the wide releases. Steve Jobs is expected to win, but it is currently in limited release and we don't like using these films as the target film. Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension was expected to come in second place, but Paramount Pictures' plan for an early VOD release has caused some theater owners to not book the film. This leaves Jem and the Holograms and The Last Witch Hunter as the possible choices for the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. As such, The Last Witch Hunter is the only choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Last Witch Hunter.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
There is a difference this time. Two people will earn Frankenprizes consisting of two horror movies. The other winner will earn a Frankprize consisting of two "horror" movies, that is to say movies so bad that it will fill you with horror. We are going to do this again next week, and maybe even during Christmas, with two presents and a lump of coal. We might do this regularly for as long as I have bad movies to give away.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Midnight Box Office: Crimson Peak Scares Goosebumps
October 16, 2015
Two scary films started their box office runs last night with Crimson Peak earning $855,000, putting it ahead of Goosebumps, which pulled in $600,000. By comparison, Sinister 2 earned $800,000 during its midnight showings on its way to a $10.54 million opening weekend. Sinister 2 had ... issues with its reviews, unlike Crimson Peak, which is earning 68% positive reviews. Perhaps Ouija, which opened this time last year, would be a better comparison. It earned $911,000 during its midnight shows on its way to a $19.88 million opening weekend. It too struggled with critics, but I think the release date makes it a better comparison. Crimson Peak could reach $20 million over the weekend.
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Weekend Predictions: Will Goosebumps Bump Off the Competition?
October 15, 2015
We are getting closer to Halloween and there are two scary movies opening wide this weekend. Goosebumps is a live-action family film and as we saw with Pan, those are rarely big hits. On the other hand, this film is earning great reviews and cost about 60% less to make, so even if it just matches Pan's opening, it will still have a shot at profitability. Crimson Peak is an old-fashioned Haunted House horror film, similar to The Woman in Black, but with a $55 million production budget. That might be too much to recoup. Finally there's Bridge of Spies, a Cold War era Spy Thriller. Its reviews are the best for this week, but its target audience isn't known for rushing out to see a movie opening weekend. This weekend last year, there were five films with more than $10 million, but only one with more than $20 million. This year, we should have the same number of $10 million movies, but at least two $20 million movies and perhaps even a $30 million movie. I think 2015 has the edge in the year-over-year comparison, but unless the new releases are bigger hits than most anticipate, it could be close.
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International Box Office: Milestones for The Martian
October 14, 2015
The Martian remained in first place with $58.1 million in 75 markets for totals of $119.0 million internationally and $227.7 million worldwide. $200 million worldwide was the minimum needed for the studio to save face. If it can get to $300 million worldwide, then we start talking about profitability. I don't see a way it won't get to $300 million, perhaps as early as this time next week, while $500 million worldwide is a reasonable goal to aim for. Its biggest new market of the weekend was South Korea where it earned first place with $11.09 million on 1,132 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $13.00 million. It also dominated the chart in Russia with $8.18 million on 2,246 screens. On the other hand, it only managed second place in Germany with $3.85 million on 676 screens. As far as holdovers go, the film remained in first place in the U.K. with $5.96 million in 582 theaters over the weekend for a two-week total of $20.44 million. This is about on par with its run here, which bodes well for its worldwide total.
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Home Market Numbers: Pitch's Opening is Good, but Not Perfect
October 14, 2015
Pitch Perfect 2 led the new releases for September 22nd and earned first place on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for September 27th. The film sold 974,000 units / $16.76 million during its first week of release, 55% of which was sold on Blu-ray. That's really impressive for this type of film. On the other hand, overall sales were 13% lower than the original film opened with. Additionally, the franchise box set earned fifth place with 48,000 units / $1.37 million.
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Contest: Out of the Frying Pan: Winning Announcement
October 14, 2015
The winners of our Out of the Frying Pan contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Pan opening weekend were...
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Per Theater Chart: Jobs Earns a Raise
October 13, 2015
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Steve Jobs was expected to be a hit in limited release, but not this big of a hit. The film scored more than $500,000 in just four theaters for an average of $130,381, which is the best per theater average for a film released in 2015. In fact, it is nearly double the previous best, Sicario. The second best average of the week was $16,543, which was earned by Goodbye Mr. Loser in 22 theaters.
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Home Market Releases for October 13th, 2015
October 13, 2015
There are two $100 million movies on this week's list of Home Market Releases: Spy, which earned more than $100 million domestically, and Tomorrowland, which merely cost more than $100 million to make. Spy is arguably the best release on this week's list, but the Blu-ray was already named Pick of the Week, so that honor is going to Aladdin's Blu-ray debut this week.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Box Office Celebrates Double-Milestone on Top
October 13, 2015
There was some great news at the box office this weekend, as both The Martian and Hotel Transylvania 2 reached the century mark. On the other hand, Pan bombed performing even worse than expected. I don't think there's really any controversy in saying it bombed, as the $150 million movie opened with less than Alexander and the Terrible Horrible No Good Very Bad Day made last year. The overall depth was also weak, which led to the box office falling 21% from last week and 20% from last year. 2015 is still way ahead of 2014, $8.30 billion to $7.87 billion, and it would take a serious collapse for that lead to evaporate before the end of the year.
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Aladdin
October 12, 2015
Aladdin first hit theaters in 1992 and was a smash hit with critics and with moviegoers. Because it is so well-known, I don't think I need to concentrate too much on the plot or the quality of the movie. What is more important is the technical presentation and any additionally extras new to this release. Does the Blu-ray shine in that regard?
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Spy
October 12, 2015
Spy is the latest collaboration between Melissa McCarthy and Paul Feig. The previous two were hits, both with critics and with moviegoers. Does Spy complete the hat trick? And is the Blu-ray worth picking up?
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Weekend Estimates: Martian, Jobs Red Hot; Pan Fried
October 11, 2015
As expected, The Martian will easily win a second straight weekend at the box office, with Fox predicting the film will fall just 32% from its opening to $37 million, for a running total of $108.7 million. That keeps it tracking just a little behind Gravity, which fell 23% in its second weekend, and ahead of Interstellar (down 40%, second time around) and Prometheus (59% down). Comparing all four movies, The Martian looks set to move easily past $200 million, and perhaps settle around $225 million, unless it tops that number thanks to a re-release around Oscar time.
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Home Market Numbers: Furious 7 has Mellow Start on the Home Market
October 10, 2015
Six new releases from the week of September 15th reached the top 30 on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for September 20th. This includes four in the top five and a new number one. Furious 7 earned first place with 1.87 million units / $31.89 million on the single release for an opening week Blu-ray share of 64%. Impressive. Meanwhile the second Fast and Furious Franchise Box Set released this year earned fifth place with 62,000 units / $3.46 million. While the film very nearly earned twice that of its nearest competitor, it was still almost exactly 40% lower than Fast and Furious 6 opened with. This decline is huge, but all packaged media is down. Some of the slack is going to VOD, but a lot of home market revenue now goes to subscription streaming services like Netflix or Crunchyroll. Personally, I like packaged media, I still buy CDs, so this is bad news for me.
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Friday Estimates: Pan Doesn't Fly with Moviegoers
October 10, 2015
Pan cost $150 million to make. It is very rare for a live-action family film to cost this much and the reason for that is very simple: these movies almost never become monster hits. Pan will certainly not be the exception, as it pulled in just $5.2 million on Friday. By comparison, Alexander and the Terrible Horrible No Good Very Bad Day had an opening day of $5.30 million. It also earned overall positive reviews, while Pan will go down as one of the worst major releases of the year. Even if we pretend the two films will have the same internal multiplier, Pan will only open with $18 million. $16 million seems more likely given its reviews. $16 million on a $150 million budget. This is terrible news for Warner Bros. And it is not like they've had a great year so far.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Steve Jobs and Killer Frogs
October 9, 2015
This is not a particularly deep week for limited releases. Steve Jobs is the only film that has a significant chance of earning some measure of mainstream success. In fact, its reviews and buzz suggest it could be a player during Awards Season. On the other hand, The Forbidden Room, Victoria, and Yakuza Apocalypse are more interesting in my mind.
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Contest: Cutis Anserina
October 9, 2015
There are three wide releases coming out next weekend. None are expected to become $100 million hits, but none are expected to bomb either. There are two horror films coming out, which fits the theme of the prizes. Goosebumps is the bigger of these two films and is earning surprisingly strong early reviews. As such, it is the best choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Goosebumps.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
There is a difference this time. Two people will earn Frankenprizes consisting of two horror movies. The other winner will earn a Frankprize consisting of two "horror" movies, that is to say movies so bad that it will fill you with horror.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Weekend Predictions: Will Pan Pan Out?
October 9, 2015
The only wide release of the week is Pan, which is being described as critically panned, because entertainment writers have a pathological need to use puns. I hate puns and I'm still guilty of this. Despite being the only new release, Pan isn't expected to open in first place, or even second place. The Martian is expected to repeat on top, while Hotel Transylvania 2 should have another strong hold remaining in second place. This weekend last year was in some ways the polar opposite, as there were four new releases in the top ten, plus another that opened in eleventh place. However, the result was the same, as Gone Girl remained in first place. The Martian should top Gone Girl's performance, while Hotel Transylvania 2 and Pan should match Dracula Untold and Alexander and the Terrible Horrible No Good Very Bad Day. However, after that, 2014's depth seems too strong and 2015 will likely lose in the year-over-year comparison. That's fine, as 2015's lead is huge and there are still a few (nearly) guaranteed monster hits left to open this year.
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International Box Office: Mars is in Ascension
October 8, 2015
The Martian opened in first place with $45.2 million on 9,299 screens in 50 markets. This includes a first place, 10.01 million opening on 582 theaters in the U.K. This was the biggest opening for both the director and the star. The film had a similarly strong opening in Australia earning first place with $4.28 million on 582 screens. It also earned first place in Hong Kong ($2.26 million on 70 screens) and Taiwan ($1.68 million on 137 screens). It only managed second place in Italy with $2.53 million on 464 screens and in Mexico with $2.9 million on 1,757, while it debuted in third place in Brazil with $1.82 million on 507. Overall, the film it doing about as well internationally as it did here, which is good news for Fox.
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Contest: Rescue Mission: Winning Announcement
October 8, 2015
The winners of our Rescue Mission contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Martian opening weekend were...
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Per Theater Chart: Malala and Mars
October 8, 2015
Only two films were in the $10,000 club this weekend. He Named Me Malala led the way with an average of $15,221 in four theaters, which is very strong for a documentary. The film's reviews are only good, but the appeal here is Malala Yousafzai and I don't think moviegoers are too upset that the film is a little shallow. The Martian was close behind with an average of $14,176.
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Home Market Releases for October 6th, 2015
October 7, 2015
The home market release report is a little late this week, because in our ongoing attempt to improve our site, we are looking at the format of this column and it will change shortly. (Also, this week both Amazon and Rotten Tomatoes were acting up. I had to download a script blocker and block all scripts on Rotten Tomatoes. Certain things no longer work, but at least it doesn't cause Firefox to freeze every ten minutes.) The biggest release of the week is The Avengers: The Age of Ultron, sort of. It came out last Friday, not this Tuesday. I'm waiting for my copy to arrive so I can do a full review. Meanwhile, the best new release of the week is When Marnie Was There in Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: When Marnie Was There
October 6, 2015
When Marnie Was There is the latest Studio Ghibli released through GKIDS. It did very well in limited release, at least compared to most animated films, but it was still not seen by most. Now it is coming out on Blu-ray / DVD. Is it worth checking out for those missed it the first time? Is it worth picking up for fans of the studio?
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Martian and Transylvania Help Box Office Remain Strong
October 6, 2015
It was an interesting weekend as The Martian was in a tight race with Gravity for Biggest October Weekend. It didn't quite set the record, but it came close enough to be the big story all weekend. Hotel Transylvania 2 held on better than expected, which helped the overall box office grow 8.3% from last week to $149 million. More importantly, the top two films this year were well ahead of the top two films last year, Gone Girl and Annabelle. This helped the overall box office grow 1.8% from the same weekend last year. Most people were not expecting that. Year-to-date, 2015 now has a 6.0% lead over 2014 at $8.14 billion to $7.68 billion. It would take a relatively serious collapse for 2015 to not come out on top at the end of the year.
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Home Market Numbers: Age of Fury
October 6, 2015
A lot of new releases from the week of September 8th reached the top 30 on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for September 13th, but none were able to overtake Mad Max: Fury Road. The film sold 342,000 units / $8.29 million over the week for a two-week total of 1.34 million units / $30.99 million.
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Featured DVD Review: What We Did on Our Holiday
October 5, 2015
What We Did on Our Holiday is a dramedy starring Rosamund Pike and David Tennant as a less-than-happy couple traveling to his father for less-than-happy reasons. It hardly made an impact at the box office in its native U.K. and barely made a peep here. Was there a reason it was ignored? Or is it an undiscovered gem?
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Weekend Estimates: The Martian Orbits Gravity’s Record
October 4, 2015
Just a week after Hotel Transylvania 2 broke September’s weekend record, The Martian has a shot at setting a new mark for October, although it’s going to be a challenge. Fox is projecting the sci-fi thriller will make $55 million this weekend, just a fraction behind Gravity’s $55.8 million debut two years ago this weekend. There’s just a sliver of a chance that The Martian will take the record, but it would take a great performance on Sunday.
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Featured TV on DVD Review: HAPPYish
October 4, 2015
Technically this is HAPPYish: Season One, but the show was canceled after just one season, so adding Season One isn't accurate, as it implies there will be a Season Two. So we know the show wasn't able to find an audience, but does that mean it isn't a good show? Was it an undiscovered gem that deserves to be seen by more on the home market?
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Friday Estimates: Martian Can’t Quite Escape Gravity’s Pull
October 3, 2015
The Martian earned $2.5 million during its Thursday midnight showings and Fox is estimating a total of $18 million on Friday to easily win at the box office. By comparison, Gravity opened with $1.4 million during its midnight showings and $17.48 million on opening day. Gravity went on to earn $55.79 million opening weekend. Should The Martian have the same internal multiplier, it would pull in $57 million over the weekend, which is just ahead of the record for Biggest October Weekend. However, The Martian’s higher midnight showings and lower Friday-proper numbers likely means it will be a little more front-loaded, and it should pull in $53 million over the weekend. This is almost exactly what was predicted on Friday and it also means Gravity’s October record is likely safe for at least one more year.
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Contest: Out of the Frying Pan
October 2, 2015
Pan is only one true wide release next week. As such, it is the only choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Pan.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
There is a difference this time. Two people will earn Frankenprizes consisting of two horror movies. The other winner will earn a Frankprize consisting of two "horror" movies, that is to say movies so bad that it will fill you with horror.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Contest: Slight Delay
October 2, 2015
Slight delay isn't the name of the contest. There will be a slight delay in the contest, as there may or may not have been a shipping error with the prizes. I was supposed to get one copy of What We Did on Our Holiday and three for a contest. I only received one copy. I'm not sure if that means they ran out of copies before they could supply the ones I needed for the contest, or if they will be shipping the prizes directly to the winners. Worse still, I can't simply wait till next week to feature What We Did on Our Holiday, as the next too weeks have tentative prizes booked. So I fired off an e-mail and I'm waiting for an answer. If I don't get one by the end of business today, we will be going with the same prizes as last time, two Frankenprizes comprised of two horror movies and a third Frankenprize consisting of two really bad movies. There will be a contest regardless and the target film will be Pan, so you can enter by sending your opening weekend box office prediction for Pan to contests@the-numbers.com.
Limited and VOD Releases: Shanghaied
October 2, 2015
It is a bad week for limited releases. Shanghai is the biggest release on this week's list, but that just means it is opening in way too many theaters to thrive. The film I'm most interested in is A Christmas Horror Story, but I do have a well-known pro-Canada bias.
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Weekend Predictions: Will Martian's Opening be Out of This World?
October 2, 2015
The Martian is the only true wide release this week, but it might not be the only new release in the top ten. The Sci-fi adventure film is earning award-worthy reviews and is also being praised for being an inspiring portrayal of science on the big screen. Sicario is expanding its theater count to 2,500, which should push it into the top five. The Walk opened in IMAX screens on Wednesday, but it missed the top ten place and it will likely fall. This weekend last year, Gone Girl and Annabelle both opened with between $37 million and $38 million. The Martian will open with more than either of those films opened with. However, it won't open with more than both of them combined. We will need good growth from Sicario and solid legs from Hotel Transylvania 2 to match last year's result.
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International Box Office: Lost Finds Its Way to the Top
October 1, 2015
Lost in Hong Kong opened in first place in China and internationally with $106.80 million. This is better than Monster Hunt opened with, so if it has the same legs, the box office record in China will fall for the third time this year. Speaking of records, the overall Chinese box office rose to $5 billion with three months left in the year. This is amazing.
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2015 Preview: October
October 1, 2015
September ended on a record note with the debut of Hotel Transylvania 2. Additionally, there was great depth and 2015's lead over 2014 grew to nearly $500 million. How do things look going forward? The month starts out with The Martian, which should have no trouble becoming the biggest hit of the month and might even top $200 million. On the other hand, no other film is expected to get to $100 million. There's only one or two that will even come close. Fortunately, last October was very similar with one $100 million hit, Gone Girl, while two other films came close, Annabelle and Fury. It looks like it will be up to the depth films from both years to determine which year comes out on top.
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