The Numbers News - December 2023

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Weekend projections: Wonka heads into the New Year as box office champ with $23.95-million weekend

December 31, 2023

WonkaWarner Bros.’ Sunday-morning projection. That’s broadly in line with our pre-weekend prediction, and takes it to $134.6 million at the domestic box office. Its international numbers are even more impressive, with $244.4 million outside North America and $386.9 million globally so far. More...

Weekend predictions: Wonka looks to lead at the box office going into the New Year

December 29, 2023

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom topped the chart last weekend, and The Color Purple had the second-best opening Christmas Day ever, but our model thinks Wonka will enter the New Year as champion at the box office, based on the performance of all films since Christmas Day. More...

Theater counts: Wonka will ring in the New Year as the widest release

December 28, 2023

It was an interesting week at the box office with a plethora of films opening on Friday, followed up by three wide releases on Christmas Day. Newcomer Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom took the weekend with an estimated $27.7 million in earnings, while Wonka, and the animated feature, Migration occupied the second and third spots at the domestic box office, making an estimated $18.05 million and $12.45 million respectively. More...

Weekend projections: Aquaman barely causes a ripple on slow pre-holiday weekend

December 24, 2023

A big selection of new releases won’t help prop up takings at movie theaters this weekend as Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom heads for an opening three-day weekend of about $28.1 million, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday-morning projection. That’s less than half as much as Aquaman made on its opening weekend back in 2018. Christmas Eve falling on a Sunday will further blunt earnings as we head into what will be a long Christmas week. More...

Weekend predictions: Aquaman leads a cavalcade of new releases on Christmas weekend

December 22, 2023

With ten films opening or expanding wide over five days, one might think we’ll see records broken this Christmas weekend. Alas, it doesn’t look as though there’s a standout film in the pack, although there’s certainly plenty to choose from. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is set to take the crown, and five out the top six will be new in wide release according to our model. So there’s lots to dig into today. More...

Holiday theater counts: Wonka staves off a rush of newcomers heading into the Christmas weekend

December 21, 2023

As the lone wide release to enter theaters last week, Wonka dominated both the domestic and international box office, scoring a solid $39 million from North American showings, while adding just over $54 million to its previous overseas total of $59 million. The Willy Wonka origin story starring Timothée Chalamet will begin its sophomore frame by adding 10 locations this week, making the musical the widest film in the land with availability in 4,213 cinemas. Wonka will face far stiffer competition however this week at the box office as a bevy of new films make their way into theaters in time for the Christmas holiday. More...

The Numbers Business Report giveaway

December 21, 2023

The December issue of The Numbers Business Report is available now. This month, we dig into the impact of the 2023 strikes on the industry, and specifically how the disruption will affect the box office in 2024. We report on the average ticket price in movie theaters in North America in Q3; show how to use The Numbers and OpusData to track disruptions in the industry; and update our box office predictions for 2023 and 2024, theatrical window analysis, domestic and international release schedules, and more. To celebrate our third issue, we’ll be giving away free digital copies to three lucky readers. Read on for more details. More...

Weekend projections: Wonka singing up impressive $39 million on debut

December 17, 2023

Wonka is kicking the holiday season off with a bang as it heads to an opening weekend around $39 million, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday-morning projection. While not quite the best weekend for a live-action musical (a record still held by High School Musical 3: Senior Year), it is easily the best for a musical not based on an existing show, bettering the $15.5 million earned by The Greatest Showman over its second weekend in December, 2017. More...

Weekend predictions: Wonka looking for something in the 30s

December 15, 2023

Wonka will land with a solid opening, likely somewhere between $30 million and $40 million, this weekend, based on our model’s forecast and a decent $3.5 million in preview earnings on Thursday. That will be easily the best weekend ever for a live action musical not based on an existing show, beating the $15.5 million earned by The Greatest Showman over its second weekend back in December, 2017. The best weekend for any live-action musical is $42.0 million, earned by High School Musical 3: Senior Year back in 2008. We don’t have enough data yet to be sure that record won’t be broken, but it would require very good legs through the weekend. More...

Theater counts: Wonka makes a sweet entrance in 4,203 theaters

December 14, 2023

In terms of box office competition, last weekend brought about a plethora of films vying for that number one spot, with newcomer The Boy and the Heron leading the way with just over $13 million in its opening three days. Fighting for second spot was The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, and Godzilla Minus One, with the former outpacing the latter $9.3 million to $8.6 million. This week a beloved literary and movie character comes back to the big screen to tell the story of his youth. More...

Weekend projections: The Boy and the Heron headed to record-breaking opening

December 10, 2023

The Boy and the Heron will have the best North American opening ever for a film by Hayao Miyazaki, according to GKIDS Sunday-morning projection. The $12.8-million debut for the animated adventure also marks the first time the distributor has topped the box office chart—its previous best was a seventh-place finish for Belle when it opened in January last year. More...

Weekend predictions: The Boy and the Heron, and Songbirds and Snakes; and Beyoncé, and Godzilla

December 8, 2023

The movie gods have put together another mix of interesting, but hard to predict, new releases this weekend, led by Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron. After the success of the rather different Godzilla Minus One last weekend, Japanese films are having a bit of a moment, and those two will likely both be in the top four by the end of the weekend. Where they land exactly is a little harder to predict. More...

Theater counts: Songbirds & Snakes climbs to the top entering its fourth week

December 7, 2023

It’s a rare scenario that a film becomes the widest release in its fourth week in theaters but that is just the case for The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes. Even as the film loses 26 locations this week, it is still available in 3,665 cinemas, which tops our list this week. The film logged in over $14 million in its latest weekend, good enough for second place, in between the two newcomers, RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCÉ, and Godzilla Minus One, which earned $21.8 million and $11.42 million respectively. This week in wide arrivals, two new arrivals make their way into theaters a two classics come back to the big screen. More...

Weekend projections: Beyoncé powers to $21-million opening

December 3, 2023

Although it has arguably lost some strength over the course of the weekend, there’s no question RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCÉ is enjoying an excellent debut weekend, with AMC Theatres Distribution predicting it will earn $21 million over three days. That’s a powerhouse performance for the weekend after Thanksgiving. Godzilla Minus One looks like it will top $11 million, and Bollywood action movie Animal will earn a little over $6 million, meaning nearly $40 million will be earned this weekend by movies from non-traditional sources. More...

Weekend predictions: Beyoncé starting out strong

December 1, 2023

With four new wide releases and several films having their first “normal” weekend after opening over Thanksgiving, this is a devilishly difficult weekend to predict at the box office. Hardest of them all is RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCÉ, which follows in the footsteps of another all-caps concert movie, TAYLOR SWIFT | THE ERAS TOUR. Beyoncé’s film posted excellent preview numbers last night, with $5.06 million. That’s quite a bit more than Taylor Swift’s $2.8 million in previews, but that’s not really an apples to apples comparison, as the Swift previews were added to the schedule long after her most enthusiastic fans had bought tickets for later in the weekend. With so few other comparable films, our model is struggling to pin down a number for RENAISSANCE this weekend. More...