July 3rd, 2017
This is one of the worst weeks on the home market that I’ve seen. The summer is usually a bad time on the home market, but this year July 4th lands on Tuesday, which further hurts the quality of releases coming out this week. The biggest non-VOD release of the week is The Zookeeper’s Wife, which would be a secondary Blu-ray release on an average week. The second biggest release, Song to Song, did so poorly on the box office that it would be filler if it weren’t for its pedigree. As for the best new release of the week... Free Fire is coming out on Video on Demand. The reviews are good, but not really Pick of the Week material. I guess the best new release on this week’s list is HYOUKA: Part One. I think this is the first time an Anime TV series has been named Pick of the Week.
May 10th, 2017
Not only did Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 earn first place on the weekend box office chart, it was also the top film on the theater average chart earning an average of $33,704. This is the fourth best result of the year so far, second best for a wide release. (Beauty and the Beast is still the best of the year with an average of $41,508.) Second place went to the re-release of Stalker with $20,540 in its lone theater. The Lovers was the only other film in the $10,000 club with an average of $16,572 in four theaters.
May 2nd, 2017
Baahubali 2: The Conclusion opened on top of the theater average chart with $24,712 in just over 400 theaters. It goes without saying that there will be another installment in this franchise; although I hear it won’t follow the same characters. The only other film in the $10,000 club was How to Be a Latin Lover, which earned an average of $10,959 in 1,118 theaters. Obit was relatively close to the $10,000 mark with an average of $8,093 in two theaters over the weekend; however, it was a Wednesday release earning an average of $17,604 over the five days.
April 25th, 2017
As expected, The Fate of the Furious dominated the weekend box office chart. It held up a little better than expected with $38.41 million over the weekend; however, this was still over 60% lower than its opening weekend and the overall weekend fell over $60 million or 36% from last weekend for a total of $107 million. A lot of the blame can be pushed onto the new releases, as none of them earned a spot in the top five. Born in China was the best of the new releases earning sixth place with $4.79 million. Year-over-year, 2017 was 16% lower than 2016, but fortunately, 2017 still has an impressive $200 million lead over 2016 at $3.53 billion to $3.33 billion.
April 19th, 2017
The Lost City of Z led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $27,544 in four theaters. The film is expanding into several hundred more theaters this Friday, so this is a great start. The overall number one film, The Fate of the Furious, was next with an average of $22,920. Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer opened with nearly $100,000 in five theaters for an average of $19,842. The final film in the $10,000 club was Chasing Trane with $16,626 in its lone theater.
April 12th, 2017
Colossal led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $30,057 in four theaters. Meanwhile, Their Finest was the only other film in the $10,000 club with an average of $19,049 also in four theaters.
April 11th, 2017
It was a good weekend at the box office, considering the time of year, but this was almost entirely due to holdovers. The Boss Baby earned $26.36 million, which was within a rounding of our prediction, while Beauty and the Beast was relatively close behind. This meant the best new release, Smurfs: The Lost Village, only managed third place. Furthermore, it wasn’t even close to second place. Overall, the box office fell 30% from last weekend. More importantly, it was 14% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $3.15 billion becoming the fastest year to reach $3 billion. It is also 6.4% or $190 million ahead of last year’s pace. It is still early, but 2017 is starting to build up a lead that will act as a cushion when it inevitably hits a soft patch.
April 4th, 2017
Wide releases again dominated the theater average chart taking two of the top three spots. This includes The Boss Baby, which led the way with $13,305. The only limited release in the $10,000 club was David Lynch: The Art Life with $10,823 in its lone theater. Last week’s champ, Beauty and the Beast, was right behind with an average of $10,789.
April 4th, 2017
The Boss Baby beat expectations and earned first place with $50.20 million over the weekend. The strong competition pushed Beauty and the Beast into second place, but it nearly hit $400 million and it is on pace for $500 million, so I wouldn’t feel too bad for the film. On the other hand, you can feel bad for Ghost in the Shell, because an opening of just $18.68 million on a $110 million production budget is a disaster. Overall, the box office rose 16% from last week reaching $169 million. Compared to last year, the box office rose 28%, which is very impressive. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $2.98 billion, putting it 6.1% or $170 million ahead of 2016’s pace. We are far enough into the year that a lead this big is significant. That doesn’t mean 2017 is guaranteed to come out ahead, but this is certainly reason to be optimistic.
April 2nd, 2017
A great marketing campaign and a beautifully-timed opening will most likely combine to give The Boss Baby a win at the box office this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. Victory isn’t completely assured, because the margin is fairly slim: Boss Baby is headed for $49 million, per Fox’s Sunday morning estimate, while Disney is expecting $47.5 million for Beauty and the Beast. Both studios expect Beast to win on Sunday, so the eventual winner will depend on today’s figures, but it would be a real surprise if the order changes when final numbers come in tomorrow.
March 31st, 2017
It’s one of those weeks. There are a number of films earning good reviews, and some are earning great reviews. However, none of them are earning loud enough buzz to suggest they will escape the art house circuit. Worse still, there are many like The Blackcoat’s Daughter that are opening simultaneously on Video on Demand, which will all but kill their box office chances.
March 23rd, 2017
There are only two wide releases next weekend, as The Zookeeper’s Wife has been dropped to limited release. Both The Boss Baby and Ghost in the Shell have shots at $100 million in total. I don’t think both of them will get there, but both at least have a shot. If we assume both films have an equal shot at $100 million, Ghost in the Shell would still likely get off to a faster start, as it is an action film vs. a family film. Because of this, it is the best choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Ghost in the Shell.
April 1st is next Saturday, so we are starting our April Fools contests this week. Two of our winners will get movies from our prize pool, while one will be chosen at random to be the fool and receive an HD-DVD release.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be a potential winner of two previously reviewed movies, or the winner of the Fool’s Prize.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also be a potential winner of two previously reviewed movies, or the winner of the Fool’s Prize.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will be the final potential winner of two previously reviewed movies, or the winner of the Fool’s Prize.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
March 1st, 2017
February was an okay month. The films that missed expectations were mostly balanced by the films that were pleasant surprises. Unfortunately, last February was amazing as Deadpool dominated the chart, so 2017 has fallen further behind 2016 and 2016’s lead is now about $100 million. It is not so bad that a good March won’t help 2017 back into the lead. Will that happen? We have some good news and some bad news. Good news: Every week there is one movie that has at least a shot at $100 million. Two of them, Logan and Beauty and the Beast, could reach $200 million or a lot more. Bad News: last March, both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned more than $300 million. That’s a really powerful one-two punch and I don’t think we can replicate that this time around. On the other hand, last March, the third best film of the month was 10 Cloverfield Lane, while there were four films that were expected to open wide that earned less than $10 million at the box office. 2017 likely won’t be as good at the top, but I also don’t think it will have as many bombs either. If Beauty and the Beast reaches the very high end of expectations, then 2017 could even close the gap with 2016 entirely. I’ll be happy getting halfway there.