Weekend Estimates: Jumanji Rules MLK Weekend
January 14, 2018
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle will come out an easy winner at the box office this MLK weekend. Over three days, the family adventure is headed for an estimated $27 million, for $283 million to date. With another $8 million or so on Monday, the film will finish the holiday on the threshold of $300 million domestically. Partly helped by the long weekend, it will record the 10th-best fourth weekend of all time—remarkable strength for a movie that ran the risk of being over-shadowed by The Last Jedi when it came out at Christmas.
Jumanji’s performance this weekend is now over-shadowing a number of new releases. The film probably hit hardest is Paddington 2, which is headed for $10.62 million or so over its first three days. That’s a major disappointment for a film with virtually perfect reviews, and a built-in fan base from the well-received first movie. The fact that Warner Bros. picked it up from Weinstein at the last minute probably didn’t help the marketing of the film, although it seems unlikely that the Weinstein stigma will have rubbed off much, given that the film was independently produced in the UK. Perhaps WB didn’t have enough time to give this the kind of attention it needed, but the bottom line seems to be that family moviegoers who went to The Last Jedi over Christmas largely opted for Jumanji this weekend.
The Post is having a much better weekend, as it expanded into 2,819 theaters, and will come second for the weekend overall, with Fox projecting $18.6 million over three days. Word of mouth looks to be solid on this one, and the expansion looks well-timed, with the only other awards-contender in the top 10, Darkest Hour, having topped out last weekend. Whether The Post picks up many awards remains to be seen, but it looks as though it should have a good run at the box office, and cause some attention.
Fox is also celebrating the longevity of The Greatest Showman, which will decline just 14% this weekend to $11.8 million, and is on the verge of hitting $100 million. It is enjoying the best hold of any film in the top 10, and, remarkably, will have a theater average over $4,000 in its fourth weekend, after having an average under $3,000 on its first.
The Commuter is the strongest of the new releases, with Lionsgate projecting $13.45 million for the weekend from 2,892 theaters. With relatively limited marketing costs (perhaps $30 million), and StudioCanal footing the production bill, this should be a nicely profitable film for Lionsgate.
Proud Mary is looking less promising for Sony, with $10 million expected over three days, and a short run at the box office looking likely. The studio only put the film in 2,125 theaters, and presumably spent closer to $20 million than $30 million on marketing, but it seems unlikely they will make much back on this one.
In limited release, the standout film continues to be Phantom Thread, which will pick up $1.145 million for the three-day weekend, per Focus’s Sunday morning estimate. That gives it an average of $18,468 from 62 theaters. The film is due a more aggressive expansion.
- Paddington 2 Comparisons
- The Post Comparisons
- The Commuter Comparisons
- Free Fire Comparisons
- Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Comparisons
- Insidious: The Last Key Comparisons
- The Greatest Showman Comparisons
- Star Wars: The Last Jedi Comparisons
- Pitch Perfect 3 Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, The Greatest Showman, Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Last Jedi, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, The Commuter, Darkest Hour, Proud Mary, The Post, Phantom Thread, Paddington 2