Weekend Predictions: Black Panther is About to Bring In a Lot of Green
February 15, 2018
It’s Presidents Day long weekend and there are two-and-a-half films trying to take advantage of the holiday with wide releases. However, the only film opening this weekend that people are actually talking about is Black Panther. This film is earning more buzz than any film opening until Infinity War and is widely expected to break records. Early Man’s reviews have been overwhelmingly positive, but it is just hoping to reach the top five. Finally, there’s Samson, which is only opening semi-wide. This weekend last year was the weekend after Presidents Day long weekend, so it is not a fair comparison and 2018 will crush 2017. Compared to Presidents Day of last year, 2018 will still crush the competition.
Black Panther is the latest installment in the MCU. This franchise has been around for 10 years and this is the 18th installment and so far not a single film has earned bad reviews, nor have any failed to earn a profit at the box office. There’s almost no chance this film will be the first miss. Not only are the reviews 97% positive, but there isn’t another film earning half of this buzz opening for months. At the beginning of the year, I assumed this film would open with more than $100 million over the three-day weekend and would earn almost $140 million over the four-day weekend. To put this into perspective, the three-day weekend last year earned $148 million in total. However, the stellar reviews and the buzz strongly suggests I underestimated the film’s box office potential. I’ve seen some four-day predictions that are north of $180 million. That’s too bullish for me. However, I do think it will top Deadpool’s Presidents Day long weekend records. In fact, it should beat it by about 10% at $167 million over four days.
Peter Rabbit should remain in second place, thanks to the holidays and its family target audience. Look for about $21 million over the four-day weekend for a total of over $50 million after just 11 days of release. This puts it on pace to hit $90 million, but if its legs are just a little bit longer, then Sony might give it a push over the top.
Fifty Shades Freed should be next with just under $20 million. The Fangirl effect and the terrible reviews will hurt its chances, but it is a holiday weekend, so that should cushion the blow somewhat. Additionally, the film earned $10.77 million on Valentine’s Day and will have nearly $60 million after just a week of release. If it can earn close to $20 million, it will remain on pace for $100 million domestically.
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle will remain in fourth place with just over $8 million, while it will crack $375 million over the weekend. The only Sony movie to earn more than that is the original Spider-Man, which finished with $403.71 million back in 2002. That figure isn’t completely out of reach for Welcome to the Jungle.
The second wide release of the week is Early Man, the latest from Aardman Animations. Like most such films, its reviews are great, but its buzz is really quiet. I was hoping the film would open in fourth place with between $12 million and $15 million, but the buzz isn’t there. On the other hand, it is a family film and these rarely earn any buzz. Furthermore, Black Panther’s buzz is so loud that it makes it more difficult to judge any other film. I still think it will grab a spot in the top five with just under $10 million, but if it struggles, then The 15:17 to Paris will be there to take its place.
Finally there’s Samson. This film is being released by Pure Flix Entertainment, who do not have a good track record at the box office and this film is only opening in 1,249 theaters. Additionally, the film only has one review; it is positive, so that’s something. On the high end, it could open with more than $6 million over the four-day weekend. On the low end, it will miss the Mendoza Line over the three-day weekend. I’m going with between $4 million and $5 million.
- Black Panther Comparisons
- Early Man Comparisons
- Samson Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Black Panther, Fifty Shades Freed, Early Man, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Peter Rabbit, Samson, The 15:17 to Paris, Marvel Cinematic Universe